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Sure, I agree that WFH becoming normal long term will hurt expensive legacy cities (specifically San Francisco, NYC, and to lesser extents, LA and Boston).
I just question whether or not the big Texas big cities are going to be the main benefactors. If anything, I think small or mid-sized metros, metros that offer good natural scenery / outdoor recreational options and metros that offer traditional urban living on the cheap are going to stand to benefit the most.
Maybe a new trend will emerge that bucks the drive for the sunbelt. But I don’t think there is any evidence of that yet, so it feels like simple speculation trying to overturn a decades-old trend that seems at the moment baked-in to the country’s migration patterns and which broadly conforms to WFH parameters which would seem to accelerate the drive for cheaper housing.
Again, I think the future of WFH on a large scale basis is going to be the wild card there.
The Texas cities were mostly places where people moved to make good money and live comfortably. If they're not tethered to an office/desk any longer, they might start looking into places that offer more natural beauty, a slower pace of life, or traditional urban living..
One thing that will help Texas out in the natural setting department is the relatively mild winters in relation to many other places in the country. This would certainly apply more for Houston and the southern half of the state as compared Dallas, the Panhandle, and other northerly areas of the state. Now, if WFH concentrates more growth in small-mid size regions, then I can certain see a huge explosion in growth rate within areas of far South/Southwest Texas - Corpus Christi, as well as the Rio Grande Valley locales like Presidio, Laredo, McAllen, and Brownsville/SPI.
One thing that will help Texas out in the natural setting department is the relatively mild winters in relation to many other places in the country. This would certainly apply more for Houston and the southern half of the state as compared Dallas, the Panhandle, and other northerly areas of the state. Now, if WFH concentrates more growth in small-mid size regions, then I can certain see a huge explosion in growth rate within areas of far South/Southwest Texas - Corpus Christi, as well as the Rio Grande Valley locales like Presidio, Laredo, McAllen, and Brownsville/SPI.
But even Dallas has very short and mild winters with little to no winter precipitation. It’s been 6-7 years since we’ve had any measurable winter precipitation. It will get “cold” for a few days and warm back up. The Panhandle and areas West are at much higher altitudes and only one county in Oklahoma separates the Panhandle from Colorado. They have much different winters than Dallas.
One thing that will help Texas out in the natural setting department is the relatively mild winters in relation to many other places in the country. This would certainly apply more for Houston and the southern half of the state as compared Dallas, the Panhandle, and other northerly areas of the state. Now, if WFH concentrates more growth in small-mid size regions, then I can certain see a huge explosion in growth rate within areas of far South/Southwest Texas - Corpus Christi, as well as the Rio Grande Valley locales like Presidio, Laredo, McAllen, and Brownsville/SPI.
Subtle climate change not merely rising oceans that are decades larger effects away..... can and may already alter weather patterns. if hurricanes from more and hit into the gulf more with higher intensities..... it is not good. Also if Texas got drier.... or wetter overall.
Up North we have the Jet Stream dipping south out of Canada each winter the brings us the coldest part of winter. We currently are having rain in PA with mixes in higher elevations. and the Midwest also. Other years we were entering polar vortexes. The Midwest will be in the 40s in coming days for highs. That means also a warmer winter in the South. If up North we remain without the Jet-Stream deep dips? It will be a mild winter indeed. Ths snow from a Nor'easter that went up the Northeast coast is gone..... the snow that is. Melting since and Rain even today with the mild forecast does not say another is near. We do have the rest of Jan and Feb to get though of course.
The Jet-Stream not dipping into the US as it has for most of our history.... will moderate winters up North. In summer it can keep us hotter and more humid. We want the Jet-stream dips in August for clear out Southern hot/humid air and bring breaks of low-humidity clear air. What it also though means is even more months of HOT heat in the Sunbelt not able to have coastal breezes. The POLAR VORTEX mentioned of a couple years ago was the most severe one. It is like a hurricane more direct hit..... it is not a often to that degree situation. Still..... weather change favors LESS a Jet-stream dipping into the US from its arctic origins.
Then economic changes we cannot predict. We have this notion of some States by Politics should become its own Nation ..... with even a independent mighty Texas. Trumpism could increase this scenario if their side of politics sees it is being overridden? Too many Conspiracy Theories that can fuel it and even outside Nations influencing it. We need this election yet to be final.... already we are at risk of trouble yet.
So for this new decade..... the movement Southward may continue and Corporate America a big factor if they steer it. Eventually as they find current large cities there cost rising (already threads on C-D of where the NEW growth and growing cities might be) a new cheaper Southern abode lead growth there? Seems Corporations might decide that one .... and states that continue to lure with incentives or just low regulation and taxes, with still lower enough wages able to still being paid vs other regions. Many factors steer relocations.....but the largest is Corporate America as it always has......
Add regions getting wetter and too wet or drier but too dry in the future? This can effect movements. Again, subtle weather change does not have to wait for a so called ocean rise to flood coastal cites to effect differnt regions before then?
But even Dallas has very short and mild winters with little to no winter precipitation. It’s been 6-7 years since we’ve had any measurable winter precipitation. It will get “cold” for a few days and warm back up. The Panhandle and areas West are at much higher altitudes and only one county in Oklahoma separates the Panhandle from Colorado. They have much different winters than Dallas.
Yes, Dallas, while not as mild as areas farther south in Texas, would still be a (general) mild winter respite for people coming from places farther north.
But back to the original question. Will Texas surpass California in population? Yes, based on current growth patterns but it will take atleast two, maybe three decades. This assumes California remains somewhat stagnant and Texas continues to boom. Both scenerios are likely.
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
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Honestly, the last 15 years or so have not been kind to Houston in terms of hurricanes and flooding, to the point where I think more people will consider Dallas or Austin over Houston now
Honestly, the last 15 years or so have not been kind to Houston in terms of hurricanes and flooding, to the point where I think more people will consider Dallas or Austin over Houston now
It depends on the nature of the flooding, as well as if such events will get worse in the future. Most flooding in Houston is just pure heavy rain falling in poor-draining areas within the flood plains of waterways and bayous. Those are qualities that get accounted for as the area shows resiliency.
Honestly, the last 15 years or so have not been kind to Houston in terms of hurricanes and flooding, to the point where I think more people will consider Dallas or Austin over Houston now
I don't know if that will be true.
I heard that the city has been working more aggressively in flood mitigation
More likely people will take more of a look at areas that did not flood in the last 15 years.
Pushing far west into and paving over the Prairie that onced served as a sponge soaking up the excess rain had not been wise. There is still huge swath of the city that are no where near as far as Katy that isn't prone to flooding that can be developed.
Last time I was south of the city they were developing huge new housing areas. I was kind of shocked that those areas were jumped over for development much further out.
The south belt of Beltway 8 also had huge areas that are only now being developed.
Last edited by atadytic19; 01-07-2021 at 08:16 PM..
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