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View Poll Results: Will Houston become the next Detroit should oil & gas become obsolete?
Yes, Houston will become another Detroit. 13 21.67%
No, Houston is too diverse and will continue to do well. 31 51.67%
The effect will be minor, but won't turn Houston into Detroit. 16 26.67%
Voters: 60. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-04-2013, 09:00 AM
 
Location: Mishawaka, Indiana
7,010 posts, read 11,972,699 times
Reputation: 5813

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Quote:
Originally Posted by 313Weather View Post
First of all, I don't know of this "their" you're talking about.

Second, The fact is Detroit had all the makings to become a great city. Instead, it was the short-sightedness of its people and the leaders they elected that allowed it to fall with its poor urban planning, polarization and petty infighting (at the city, suburban and state level). Blaming Detroit's fall solely on the collapse of the auto industry is a cop-out quite frankly, granted the collapse is unfortunate.

Pittsburgh is a perfect example of this. Instead of going around crying about "Woe is me, the white man oppressed me, I didn't know any better!!!" or responding in ways such as "Let those dam blacks have that hellhole of a city, I'm taking my ball and going home!!!, folks in Pittsburgh stood tough, put their differences/issues aside, and managed to reinvent themselves as now one of the nicer cities in the city after the Steel industry collapsed.

It's as simple as that.
I don't think Detroit and Pittsburgh were quite the same animal when they fell. It was more than just the leadership that held Detroit back. Let's also not forget Pittsburgh is roughly half the size of Detroit.

Cleveland is similar to Pittsburgh in the steel industry respect, yet they haven't fully bounced back yet, though they are a hell of a lot nicer city than Detroit.

 
Old 09-04-2013, 10:16 AM
 
Location: Houston
1,473 posts, read 2,150,130 times
Reputation: 1047
Quote:
Originally Posted by ColdAilment View Post
Half of Houston's skyline is owed to the large oil corporations that have set up shop there. Oil as we know it will not be around forever, and with other countries using even more oil than the United States now, *cough* China *cough*...our supplies have an even shorter lifespan now.

I would be curious to learn what % of the Houston economy is owed to oil and gas corporations. I think any city with one industry controlling more than 30% of the local jobs is a powder keg.
Except you keep dissing one key impact of this.. Houston already went thru a bust in the 80,s ..which is why Houston spent most of the 90's diverifing it economy.. While Oil (actual energy over all,not just oil) is the lion share .. it now accounts for little over half, while in the 70's and 80,s it accounted for almost 70% . A number that Houston is still working on to drop.. Second Houston pull money in not just from one industry

But three others, bio research, areospace, and shipping.. Houston went thu what detroit did already( which is why should should not count it out) DT had almost 35 % vancy rate, the areas around DT became run down as home owners fled to the burbs

Houston has been dealt major blows before which is what you seem to refuse to get..

The Oil bust of the 80's rocked Houston economy
Space Shuttle Challenger destruction saw, the space program in Houston come to a hault that lasted from the late 80.s to mid 90.s
, Tropical Storm Allison caused billions in damages just to the city alone, not counting the sheer numbers of people homes that where destroyed
and did this to DT..http://doctorflood.rice.edu/flood/ph...ew/Slide17.JPG

Long story short Houston was Detriot in the 80,s and most of the 90's ...re did not start to climb out of the damage from the 80,s till late 90,s...
 
Old 09-04-2013, 10:28 AM
 
Location: The City
22,378 posts, read 38,910,924 times
Reputation: 7976
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truth713 View Post
Except you keep dissing one key impact of this.. Houston already went thru a bust in the 80,s ..which is why Houston spent most of the 90's diverifing it economy.. While Oil (actual energy over all,not just oil) is the lion share .. it now accounts for little over half, while in the 70's and 80,s it accounted for almost 70% . A number that Houston is still working on to drop.. Second Houston pull money in not just from one industry

But three others, bio research, areospace, and shipping.. Houston went thu what detroit did already( which is why should should not count it out) DT had almost 35 % vancy rate, the areas around DT became run down as home owners fled to the burbs

Houston has been dealt major blows before which is what you seem to refuse to get..

The Oil bust of the 80's rocked Houston economy
Space Shuttle Challenger destruction saw, the space program in Houston come to a hault that lasted from the late 80.s to mid 90.s
, Tropical Storm Allison caused billions in damages just to the city alone, not counting the sheer numbers of people homes that where destroyed
and did this to DT..http://doctorflood.rice.edu/flood/ph...ew/Slide17.JPG
Not trying to discount your points because Houston did and is diversifying. There is however one key difference in the 80s oil situation, Oil bounced back pretty quickly and the industry that provided the hiccup shortly there after also fueled (no pun intended) the recovery.

Also I am not sure if anyone knows but what percentage of the Houston shipping industry is oil related? Just curious

I dont see the same dowturn for Houston by any means (in fact probably continued growth) but one thing is certain is that Houston today is very much tied to the oil industry, a change in the industry to the neagtive would have major impacts to Houston, to suggest otherwise (even with a more diverse economy) would be short sighted.

Houston's exponential GDP growth is due to the oil industry not the newer economy aspects, you cant really procalim the good without also seeing the other side

That all said I hope no city experience the challenges that Detroit has faced and I hope for stronger Detroit in the future (and Houston or anywhere else for that matter)
 
Old 09-04-2013, 10:37 AM
 
Location: Houston
1,473 posts, read 2,150,130 times
Reputation: 1047
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
Not trying to discount your points because Houston did and is diversifying. There is however one key difference in the 80s oil situation, Oil bounced back pretty quickly and the industry that provided the hiccup shortly there after also fueled (no pun intended) the recovery.

Also I am not sure if anyone knows but what percentage of the Houston shipping industry is oil related? Just curious

I dont see the same dowturn for Houston by any means (in fact probably continued growth) but one thing is certain is that Houston today is very much tied to the oil industry, a change in the industry to the neagtive would have major impacts to Houston, to suggest otherwise (even with a more diverse economy) would be short sighted.

Houston's exponential GDP growth is due to the oil industry not the newer economy aspects, you cant really procalim the good without also seeing the other side

That all said I hope no city experience the challenges that Detroit has faced and I hope for stronger Detroit in the future (and Houston or anywhere else for that matter)
Yes but that bounce back took almost 25 yrs and the results are only now being felt, My over all point is that Houston has weatherd down turns before , and we adapted.. sometimes that came at having to put programs on hold.. most dont know funding for the light rail was actual passed in the 80,s but it did not get built till early 2000's...(eco and potical reasons).Schools funding were cut which saw many of them close, and students shipped off to other schools which of course caused over crowding.. Whole neighborhoods just died off as people went looking for jobs else where.. Services saw major cuts, police, fire, ems....
What keep Houston afloat really was the other sectors.. while the oil and gas re adjusted themselves, or the damage would have been far worst..

I think detriot will be back on in feet in 20 yrs are so.. they just have to be willing to make the tough calls first
 
Old 09-04-2013, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Mishawaka, Indiana
7,010 posts, read 11,972,699 times
Reputation: 5813
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truth713 View Post
Except you keep dissing one key impact of this.. Houston already went thru a bust in the 80,s ..which is why Houston spent most of the 90's diverifing it economy.. While Oil (actual energy over all,not just oil) is the lion share .. it now accounts for little over half, while in the 70's and 80,s it accounted for almost 70% . A number that Houston is still working on to drop.. Second Houston pull money in not just from one industry

But three others, bio research, areospace, and shipping.. Houston went thu what detroit did already( which is why should should not count it out) DT had almost 35 % vancy rate, the areas around DT became run down as home owners fled to the burbs

Houston has been dealt major blows before which is what you seem to refuse to get..

The Oil bust of the 80's rocked Houston economy
Space Shuttle Challenger destruction saw, the space program in Houston come to a hault that lasted from the late 80.s to mid 90.s
, Tropical Storm Allison caused billions in damages just to the city alone, not counting the sheer numbers of people homes that where destroyed
and did this to DT..http://doctorflood.rice.edu/flood/ph...ew/Slide17.JPG

Long story short Houston was Detriot in the 80,s and most of the 90's ...re did not start to climb out of the damage from the 80,s till late 90,s...
Source for the Oil Industry controls over 50% of Houston's economy.

If that is true then that is FAR too much of the economy being dependent on the oil industry. You can't call half the economy of a city of over 2 million people being dependent on one industry a diverse economy, you just can't. I understand it was far more dependent back in the 1970's and 1980's, but if it's still over 50% as you say, then Houston is a powder keg. Oil will lose its value eventually and will be replaced. When that day comes Houston will be in a lot of trouble.
 
Old 09-04-2013, 10:57 AM
 
Location: The City
22,378 posts, read 38,910,924 times
Reputation: 7976
Quote:
Originally Posted by ColdAilment View Post
Source for the Oil Industry controls over 50% of Houston's economy.

If that is true then that is FAR too much of the economy being dependent on the oil industry. You can't call half the economy of a city of over 2 million people being dependent on one industry a diverse economy, you just can't. I understand it was far more dependent back in the 1970's and 1980's, but if it's still over 50% as you say, then Houston is a powder keg. Oil will lose its value eventually and will be replaced. When that day comes Houston will be in a lot of trouble.
Not sure I totally agree, while it may lose its value there are also other aspects. Houston seems to at least be doing a decent job with one trying to control market ability of alternatives (sort of a corporate lobby approach) and two engageing in energy alternatives, whether they will help to off set any potential down turn does remain to be seen but I do see many aspects different from the automaker relaince in Detroit

Now to discount the possiblility to me is short sighted because as the OP question is posed, the answer is yes, though to me not likely
 
Old 09-04-2013, 11:14 AM
 
5,978 posts, read 13,118,780 times
Reputation: 4920
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
It's eventually going to either run out, or be replaced by something cheaper.

Of course, if we ever run out of oil, we will have much bigger problems than Houston.



Indeed.

People need to disentangle the problems of "Detroit" as a region, and Detroit as a city. The seeds of Detroit's destruction as a coherent city were planted long before the domestic auto industry was in big trouble. Indeed, it's actually been argued the prosperity that working for the Big Three provided hastened the decline - virtually every UAW member made enough to escape the city and move to a nearby suburb (regardless of color) which left little-to-no urban working class left.
I've understood this to be true as well. The suburbs of the 50s and 60s were already very extensive before the riots.
 
Old 09-04-2013, 11:17 AM
 
Location: The City
22,378 posts, read 38,910,924 times
Reputation: 7976
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truth713 View Post
Yes but that bounce back took almost 25 yrs and the results are only now being felt, My over all point is that Houston has weatherd down turns before , and we adapted.. sometimes that came at having to put programs on hold.. most dont know funding for the light rail was actual passed in the 80,s but it did not get built till early 2000's...(eco and potical reasons).Schools funding were cut which saw many of them close, and students shipped off to other schools which of course caused over crowding.. Whole neighborhoods just died off as people went looking for jobs else where.. Services saw major cuts, police, fire, ems....
What keep Houston afloat really was the other sectors.. while the oil and gas re adjusted themselves, or the damage would have been far worst..

I think detriot will be back on in feet in 20 yrs are so.. they just have to be willing to make the tough calls first
Houston did not take 25 years to rebound on the oil industry

A second major contributer to the Houston economy is construction (same as in many rapidly expanding metros), this is also a double edged sword as if the population growth declines, the contribution of this facet ripples through the economy (Atlanta experienced a bit of this recently)

What to me is interesting is that oil is now nearly back to the 1980 peak, prbably over priced in many ways adjusted for inflation

Historical Oil Prices: InflationData.com

especially when compared to GDP growth for Houston, there is tremendous correlation actually

Also is interesting to see this chart, Oil drive the Houston growth, it clear

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm...109&7006=26420
 
Old 09-04-2013, 11:23 AM
 
Location: Houston
1,473 posts, read 2,150,130 times
Reputation: 1047
Quote:
Originally Posted by ColdAilment View Post
Source for the Oil Industry controls over 50% of Houston's economy.

If that is true then that is FAR too much of the economy being dependent on the oil industry. You can't call half the economy of a city of over 2 million people being dependent on one industry a diverse economy, you just can't. I understand it was far more dependent back in the 1970's and 1980's, but if it's still over 50% as you say, then Houston is a powder keg. Oil will lose its value eventually and will be replaced. When that day comes Houston will be in a lot of trouble.
Again .. Houston is not twliping are thumbs if there is something out there Houston is ither already in on it in the infant stages or working on getting in on it.. Energy is are thing, all energy not just oil..Hell we are about to apporve a space port their are only like three in the nation.. We are about to expand our port to handle the increase shipping of the panal canal increased size to keep up with demand.. again like I said while it is still a major part of the eco it is also a strinking part as well.. as the other sector take a larger and lager role..

The addtion of a spaceport in Houston will only reduce the % of are economy depentent on oil. as more and more companies get into private space travel(not just for the rich , but anumber of other reasons).. We will be able to proved the space and equipement they need, not to mention the talent that will seek employment with them..

Growth and expansion of Houston Ship Channel is one sign of healthy economy | abc13.com
As I said mentioned before the Ship channel is undergoing a expansion to meet the demands of more ships and larger vehicles.. Growth and expansion of Houston Ship Channel is one sign of healthy economy | abc13.com..

Is it possible sure.. but its not the death blow threat it once was..and as time passes it becomes less of a threat to Houston over all
 
Old 09-04-2013, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Houston
1,473 posts, read 2,150,130 times
Reputation: 1047
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
Houston did not take 25 years to rebound on the oil industry

A second major contributer to the Houston economy is construction (same as in many rapidly expanding metros), this is also a double edged sword as if the population growth declines, the contribution of this facet ripples through the economy (Atlanta experienced a bit of this recently)

What to me is interesting is that oil is now nearly back to the 1980 peak, prbably over priced in many ways adjusted for inflation

Historical Oil Prices: InflationData.com

especially when compared to GDP growth for Houston, there is tremendous correlation actually

Also is interesting to see this chart, Oil drive the Houston growth, it clear

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm...109&7006=26420
again re-read I aid before it payed off.. I lived here I was a child of the 80,s and 90,s I walked the streets of the areas that died off after the oil bust... the only places that benifited where the burbs and the other outline areas, Houston proper limped back to it health..

Yes money was coming in but it was not translating to anything tangable for the city proper.. most of the companies sat on the profits, when people bought homes they chose the burbs not the city .. For a lone time the outline areas outpaced Houston proper in many ways.. construction within the loop was a crawl..
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