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There are now 35 states in the U.S. that have reached new all-time employment peaks in the last six months. Those states have all fully recovered from the last recession. Unfortunately, there are 14 others that still have fewer jobs now than they did in the 2000s, including some that haven't even recovered from two recessions ago. On the dishonor roll are Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Rhode Island and Wyoming. Also joining them is West Virginia, which reached peak employment in 2012, but has been in its own recession since.
Below are three lists indicating the month when each state reached peak employment, the number of jobs each state is below peak employment as of May 2015, and the projected year of full recovery in each state based on year-over-year job growth rates in May 2015:
Peak employment month
May 2012 - West Virginia
October 2008 - Wyoming
March 2008 - Connecticut
February 2008 - Maine
February 2008 - Missouri
February 2008 - New Mexico
January 2008 - New Jersey
December 2007 - Alabama
October 2007 - Arizona
May 2007 - Nevada
December 2006 - Rhode Island
August 2000 - Illinois
May 2000 - Mississippi
May 2000 - Ohio
April 2000 - Michigan
Jobs below peak employment
-6,500 - Wyoming
-11,000 - Maine
-11,000 - Rhode Island
-18,900 - West Virginia
-21,200 - Connecticut
-21,800 - New Mexico
-32,700 - Mississippi
-43,200 - Nevada
-53,700 - Missouri
-66,800 - Alabama
-72,500 - Arizona
-79,800 - New Jersey
-129,000 - Illinois
-229,200 - Ohio
-413,600 - Michigan
Projected year of full recovery
2016 - Connecticut
2017 - Arizona
2017 - Nevada
2017 - New Jersey
2017 - Rhode Island
2018 - Alabama
2018 - Illinois
2018 - Maine
2018 - Mississippi
2018 - Missouri
2018 - New Mexico
2018 - Ohio
2019 - Michigan
2048 - Wyoming
N/A - West Virginia
The silver lining to this bad news is that nobody can politicize it without risking their credibility. By my count, there are seven "blue" states, six "red" states, and two "swing" states.
Wyoming has always had boom/bust economic cycles, and its present decline is more related to the decline in coal and other resource extraction activities.
Michigan and Ohio combine for more than the rest combined. Crazy! Columbus fully recovered over three years ago but the rest of Ohio is just now starting to slowly turn.
So Michigan is supposed to create over 400,000 jobs in 4 years??? If so, I should buy some real estate, aye? I am unsure if it can create so many jobs, although it lost 1 million jobs. Some factories are coming back from China to Michigan though. So we shall see. Grand Rapids is booming now.
2017 sounds about right for Arizona if the cuts to say the public education sector by the current legislature and governor don't ruin things. Full disclosure, I work for a public school in Arizona BUT I thought this before I started work for the schools.
So Michigan is supposed to create over 400,000 jobs in 4 years??? If so, I should buy some real estate, aye? I am unsure if it can create so many jobs, although it lost 1 million jobs. Some factories are coming back from China to Michigan though. So we shall see. Grand Rapids is booming now.
Michigan added more than 100,000 jobs year over year in May, which is why I listed 2019 as the year of full recovery. If it averages less than that per month, then it'll recover in 2020 or sometime later. Michigan fell in such a deep hole that it has to add a lot of jobs year over year in order to recover by the end of the decade, and even then, when it does recover, that just means that it added no jobs in a period ofabout two decades. Meaningful growth can't happen in Michigan until it's fully recovered. As for Grand Rapids, it's in the same position that Columbus is in Ohio, basically being an oasis of relative opportunity while the remainder of their states suffered until only very recently.
Michigan added more than 100,000 jobs year over year in May, which is why I listed 2019 as the year of full recovery. If it averages less than that per month, then it'll recover in 2020 or sometime later. Michigan fell in such a deep hole that it has to add a lot of jobs year over year in order to recover by the end of the decade, and even then, when it does recover, that just means that it added no jobs in a period ofabout two decades. Meaningful growth can't happen in Michigan until it's fully recovered. As for Grand Rapids, it's in the same position that Columbus is in Ohio, basically being an oasis of relative opportunity while the remainder of their states suffered until only very recently.
Michigan's recession started a full 8 years before the country did. From that stand point it's job losses has more to do with globalization and a struggling auto industry, not the great recession. Where would the state be relative to the other states if you looked at job losses from 2008 on, when it was affected by the same economic conditions as the other states?
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