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People think this is crazy, but I see Texas potentially turning blue or atleast as divided as Florida in my lifetime. But the population is gravitating towards liberal cities in Texas like Houston, Dallas and Austin and they are only going to increase in political influence over their own state. And the fact that Trump took the election in that state by only 700K votes is telling.
People think this is crazy, but I see Texas potentially turning blue or atleast as divided as Florida in my lifetime. But the population is gravitating towards liberal cities in Texas like Houston, Dallas and Austin and they are only going to increase in political influence over their own state. And the fact that Trump took the election in that state by only 700K votes is telling.
The key to this happening are the suburban counties becoming more competitive. Right now, republicans win suburban counties by large margins. For example, Montgomery County north of Houston which is where the woodlands is at. But FT Bend County was the first Texas suburban county to actually turn blue in a long time in the last election cycle. Collin from what I hear is getting more competitive and that’s north of Dallas.
People think this is crazy, but I see Texas potentially turning blue or atleast as divided as Florida in my lifetime. But the population is gravitating towards liberal cities in Texas like Houston, Dallas and Austin and they are only going to increase in political influence over their own state. And the fact that Trump took the election in that state by only 700K votes is telling.
As someone who follows politics pretty closely, I don't see it. At least not for a while. Texas is a VERY conservative state, looking at the raw numbers there just aren't enough liberals or moderates to make it purple.
Even in some of the more urban parts of the state, you still have a high number of republicans, which is... interesting.
As someone who follows politics pretty closely, I don't see it. At least not for a while. Texas is a VERY conservative state, looking at the raw numbers there just aren't enough liberals or moderates to make it purple.
Even in some of the more urban parts of the state, you still have a high number of republicans, which is... interesting.
The main reason Texas isn't a swing state is because of low Latino turnout - even among citizens. If Latinos eligible to vote turned out in roughly the same levels as California, the state would be a swing state already. I can't find more recent numbers handy, but back in 2008, Latino voter turnout was almost 60% in California, 50% nationwide, and less than 40% in Texas. Also the Texas Latino electorate tends to be a bit more right leaning than anywhere besides Florida - split closer to 60/40 in favor of the Dems in some years - but this may well be because a lot of the left-leaning Latinos in Texas simply don't vote.
For this reason, Latino voters have often been considered the "sleeping giant" of Texas politics. The current dynamic cannot hold forever - Latinos are now 39.1% of the state's population, while white Anglos are 42.6%. Of course the Latino population is disporportionately non-citizens or under 18, but not every white person in Texas is a Republican either. Most studies I have seen suggest the "tipping point" for the state becoming D-leaning will be some time in the mid to late 2020s. North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia will all flip before Texas though.
Outside of major urban areas and the coasts, I think the Democrats have pushed too far on a lot of the identity politics issues. It's not necessarily that people disagree with the goals in some broad context (equal rights), but more with tone and approach.
I'm not opposed to gay marriage, but don't want it "shoved in my face." I'm not a gun owner, but I respect the right to self-defense and for hunting. What plays well in urban Chicago is not going to pass here in rural Tennessee.
^THIS right here. Democrats are screwing themselves with their messaging and tone big time. I'm an Independent so I don't vote for the party but for the candidate. Additionally, Trump was in no way my preference. Things that put me off that is or has been spewed by the left:
#1 (put #1 for a reason) Calling those who voted for Trump "deplorables" was a death blow in my opinion. This pushed those on the fence right, even democrats were offended by this and a shocking number switched sides and held their noses when they voted for Trump.
#2 Spouting Republicans are uneducated or old white guys. I don't recall ever clicking any boxes stating my age, ethnicity, race, gender or educational level when I voted so how the hell do they know? I know plenty of Republicans that are highly educated and even those who my not have a higher formal education have years of experience and exposure to our political system as well as the issues and candidates. The accusations being made by some on the left is extremely disrespectful.
#3 The notion that women who did NOT vote for Clinton "voted for who their husbands told them to vote for" or they are "too stupid to realize when they vote against their own best interests". This is one of the most insulting things I've ever heard as a woman. Maybe where Clinton stood on issues did not represent the feelings of the women who did not vote for her? I personally would love to see our first female president BUT Clinton was the wrong candidate.
#4 If you are pro 2A then you are anti-children and choose guns over their safety. Stupidest thing I've ever heard. I'm a gun owner BECAUSE I have children and want to protect them from the criminals.
#5 If you support our immigration laws then you are anti-immigrant. Again, stupid!!! I don't know if ANYONE who is anti-immigrant. Every law abiding good person who can contribute to our society and can assimilate when they come here LEGALLY is more than welcome by everyone I know to include republicans.
If Democrats will produce a GOOD candidate that truly respects and LISTENS to the people of our country regardless of their political leanings and has an actual plan to solve the problems our country faces without stomping on our constitution, I could easily see them beating Trump in 2020 and republicans helping them do it. Unfortunately, the voices of the extreme left are far louder than the more reasonable Democrats that I know are out there.
The main reason Texas isn't a swing state is because of low Latino turnout - even among citizens. If Latinos eligible to vote turned out in roughly the same levels as California, the state would be a swing state already. I can't find more recent numbers handy, but back in 2008, Latino voter turnout was almost 60% in California, 50% nationwide, and less than 40% in Texas. Also the Texas Latino electorate tends to be a bit more right leaning than anywhere besides Florida - split closer to 60/40 in favor of the Dems in some years - but this may well be because a lot of the left-leaning Latinos in Texas simply don't vote.
For this reason, Latino voters have often been considered the "sleeping giant" of Texas politics. The current dynamic cannot hold forever - Latinos are now 39.1% of the state's population, while white Anglos are 42.6%. Of course the Latino population is disporportionately non-citizens or under 18, but not every white person in Texas is a Republican either. Most studies I have seen suggest the "tipping point" for the state becoming D-leaning will be some time in the mid to late 2020s. North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia will all flip before Texas though.
I'm not sure I agree with this. Most of the Texas Latino's I know are far more conservative than folks realize. I've lived here all my life (50+ years, 28 in San Antonio). From my own experience, most Latino's are born and raised Catholic and do not support abortion, gay marriage or illegal immigration. They also are very much in support of the 2A.
I think a lot of folks want a balance in government with a mix of political leanings to represent them. Locally, it appears folks want more socially focused leaders with some state and federal positions being more fiscally conservative, hence why most of Texas' large cities have Democrats for their mayors. Just my .02 cents
I'm not sure I agree with this. Most of the Texas Latino's I know are far more conservative than folks realize. I've lived here all my life (50+ years, 28 in San Antonio). From my own experience, most Latino's are born and raised Catholic and do not support abortion, gay marriage or illegal immigration. They also are very much in support of the 2A.
I think a lot of folks want a balance in government with a mix of political leanings to represent them. Locally, it appears folks want more socially focused leaders with some state and federal positions being more fiscally conservative, hence why most of Texas' large cities have Democrats for their mayors. Just my .02 cents
Minorities tend to be social conservatives but fiscally liberal. Some say that the only difference between African-Americans and Southern Whites is the party of choice.
^THIS right here. Democrats are screwing themselves with their messaging and tone big time. I'm an Independent so I don't vote for the party but for the candidate. Additionally, Trump was in no way my preference. Things that put me off that is or has been spewed by the left:
#1 (put #1 for a reason) Calling those who voted for Trump "deplorables" was a death blow in my opinion. This pushed those on the fence right, even democrats were offended by this and a shocking number switched sides and held their noses when they voted for Trump.
#2 Spouting Republicans are uneducated or old white guys. I don't recall ever clicking any boxes stating my age, ethnicity, race, gender or educational level when I voted so how the hell do they know? I know plenty of Republicans that are highly educated and even those who my not have a higher formal education have years of experience and exposure to our political system as well as the issues and candidates. The accusations being made by some on the left is extremely disrespectful.
#3 The notion that women who did NOT vote for Clinton "voted for who their husbands told them to vote for" or they are "too stupid to realize when they vote against their own best interests". This is one of the most insulting things I've ever heard as a woman. Maybe where Clinton stood on issues did not represent the feelings of the women who did not vote for her? I personally would love to see our first female president BUT Clinton was the wrong candidate.
#4 If you are pro 2A then you are anti-children and choose guns over their safety. Stupidest thing I've ever heard. I'm a gun owner BECAUSE I have children and want to protect them from the criminals.
#5 If you support our immigration laws then you are anti-immigrant. Again, stupid!!! I don't know if ANYONE who is anti-immigrant. Every law abiding good person who can contribute to our society and can assimilate when they come here LEGALLY is more than welcome by everyone I know to include republicans.
If Democrats will produce a GOOD candidate that truly respects and LISTENS to the people of our country regardless of their political leanings and has an actual plan to solve the problems our country faces without stomping on our constitution, I could easily see them beating Trump in 2020 and republicans helping them do it. Unfortunately, the voices of the extreme left are far louder than the more reasonable Democrats that I know are out there.
I'm necessarily disagreeing but republicans haven't been saints. They've alienated a huge amount of people. They patronise young voters, ignore(and some cases, offend) minority voters, call coastal voters unamerican snowflakes and pro abortion folks "murderers". Lets not even get into how ultra offensive many have been to the LGBT community. The republicans are only being saved by the poor whites.
Minorities tend to be social conservatives but fiscally liberal. Some say that the only difference between African-Americans and Southern Whites is the party of choice.
Besides gay marriages, African Americans are pretty liberal on pretty much all issues. I'd argue they are more liberal than whites as a whole.
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