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Many Cities in the United States are below peak population, but many have turned a corner and a growing again. Which US cities do you think are likely to reach a new peak population in the future (must have lost population based of official census counts, not estimates)? Let us limit it to cities whose peaks were above 100,000 (even if their current population has dropped below that threshold)
These are the cities I think are most likely to reach a new peak by 2046 (30 years)
Atlanta, GA (495,039) current (2015): 463,876 Low:394,017
St Paul, MN (313,411) current:300,851 Low: 270,230
Boston, MA (801,444) current: 667,137 Low: 563,456
Richmond, VA (249,621) current: 220,282 Low:197,790
Washington DC (802,378) current: 672,228 Low: 572,059
Worcester, MA (203,486) current: 184,856 low: 161,799
any others? do you think any of mine are wrong?
Of the cities listed Boston is probably going through the biggest construction boom. D.C. is another city that I would expect to see a population increase. Atlanta while close to its peak population doesn't seem to be booming like D.C. or Boston however with slow growth it will surpass its old peak.
Many Cities in the United States are below peak population, but many have turned a corner and a growing again. Which US cities do you think are likely to reach a new peak population in the future (must have lost population based of official census counts, not estimates)? Let us limit it to cities whose peaks were above 100,000 (even if their current population has dropped below that threshold)
These are the cities I think are most likely to reach a new peak by 2046 (30 years)
Atlanta, GA (495,039) current (2015): 463,876 Low:394,017
St Paul, MN (313,411) current:300,851 Low: 270,230
Boston, MA (801,444) current: 667,137 Low: 563,456
Richmond, VA (249,621) current: 220,282 Low:197,790
Washington DC (802,378) current: 672,228 Low: 572,059
Worcester, MA (203,486) current: 184,856 low: 161,799
any others? do you think any of mine are wrong?
It might take a while longer for DC and Boston. High costs of living in DC and Boston will undoubtedly result in smaller households than when the population was at peak. These cities will continue to gentrify but their numbers might not grow as wildly as it happens. Atlanta seems like a no brainer and Richmond will probably get there despite its relatively small footprint. Worcester may reach peak population if the new higher speed train service to Boston adds service with more options in the AM and PM. Right now the growth is pretty anemic but the population gap isn't that great. St. Paul is probably likely since it's right next to Minneapolis and people dig its urban fabric.
I can't think of other cities to add to the list.
It might take a while longer for DC and Boston. High costs of living in DC and Boston will undoubtedly result in smaller households than when the population was at peak. These cities will continue to gentrify but their numbers might not grow as wildly as it happens. Atlanta seems like a no brainer and Richmond will probably get there despite its relatively small footprint. Worcester may reach peak population if the new higher speed train service to Boston adds service with more options in the AM and PM. Right now the growth is pretty anemic but the population gap isn't that great. St. Paul is probably likely since it's right next to Minneapolis and people dig its urban fabric.
I can't think of other cities to add to the list.
The High Rent costs do result in more developers creating new housing units in DC and Boston. Developers can sell a condo in Boston for much more than the equivalent condo in Atlanta so a smarter developer would be more likely to build in Boston.
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Certainly not Wilmington, Delaware, though we're making progress.
Not a fan of D.C., but that seems to be the no brainer, to me. Insane growth and gentrification, and, being the capital, seems poised for even more growth.
DC, Boston, and Richmond will probably all have smaller household sizes than at their population peaks. DC's building height restriction also makes it more difficult for the population to grow. Unlike the other two, Boston actually has decent public schools, so young families may be more likely to stay in the city.
It might take a while longer for DC and Boston. High costs of living in DC and Boston will undoubtedly result in smaller households than when the population was at peak. These cities will continue to gentrify but their numbers might not grow as wildly as it happens. Atlanta seems like a no brainer and Richmond will probably get there despite its relatively small footprint. Worcester may reach peak population if the new higher speed train service to Boston adds service with more options in the AM and PM. Right now the growth is pretty anemic but the population gap isn't that great. St. Paul is probably likely since it's right next to Minneapolis and people dig its urban fabric.
I can't think of other cities to add to the list.
I think Worcester is going to do it because it is growing at 900/year and only 19,000 away from peak. Also as Bostons urban core grows and cheaper places like Chelsea, Somerville etc get more expensive Worcester is going to be an attractive place for a startup that may not be able to afford eastern mass rents.
Also Worcester still has solid middle class areas that a family may want to live so young professionals may not entirely leave the city when they have kids.
All of these cities likely are. They emptied out due to the growth of the suburbs and white flight. Two generations later, people are realizing that the inner city is a very good place to live, given adequate policing.
I'd put Chicago and Philadelphia on there as well, for the same reasons as DC and Boston. They're already among the top 30 fastest growing cities in the country and I think that upward trajectory will continue.
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