Will there be ever be any NEW majority black major cities? (crime rate, neighborhood)
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Most core cities with a population in the 40%-49% black range have a not insubstantial Latino population as well. This is why they will never become majority black - even if the white percentage continues to drop, the Latino (and frequently Asian) population are growing at a much more rapid rate, meaning they will never be more than plurality black. Here's some examples, looking at 2000 and 2010 numbers:
Milwaukee, WI 37.3% - 40% (2.7% rise - black population growing)
Cincinnati, OH 42.9% - 44.8% (only a 1.9% rise - black population dropping in absolute terms)
Buffalo, NY 37.2% - 38.6% (only a 1.4% rise- black population dropping in absolute terms)
Philadelphia, PA 43.2% - 43.4% (only a 0.2% rise - black population growing)
I think Milwaukee and Cincinnati have an outside shot of being majority black at some point, but likely not for another two generations at current rates.
No one has mentioned Philadelphia which is on the cusp with a current White population of 45.1%, and a Black population of 44.1%.
I don't really expect Philadelphia to become majority black though. There are some neighbourhoods where whites are moving out to make way for blacks and other minorities like in Oxford Circle but a lot of those transitions are taking place in NJ and Delaware County suburbs. Meanwhile, the black population is decreasing in the black ghettos where the population as a whole is decreasing, and in gentrifying core neighbourhoods where the population of whites and other minorities is generally increasing. My prediction for Philadelphia is that the white population decreases a little, the black population increases a little roughly in line with overall population growth, and the Latino and Asian population grows rapidly, so I think the black population will stabilize around 45%.
No one has mentioned Philadelphia which is on the cusp with a current White population of 45.1%, and a Black population of 44.1%.
Chicago is currently 32.2% white and 31.4% black. The first time the white population has been larger than the black population in 25 years.
The black population has dropped from 40% of the population in 1980, and in sheer numbers is down over 200,000 in just the past 15 years. Whites/Asians/Hispanics are all up, and up a combined 20,000 since the year 2000.
Most core cities with a population in the 40%-49% black range have a not insubstantial Latino population as well. This is why they will never become majority black - even if the white percentage continues to drop, the Latino (and frequently Asian) population are growing at a much more rapid rate, meaning they will never be more than plurality black. Here's some examples, looking at 2000 and 2010 numbers:
Milwaukee, WI 37.3% - 40% (2.7% rise - black population growing)
Cincinnati, OH 42.9% - 44.8% (only a 1.9% rise - black population dropping in absolute terms)
Buffalo, NY 37.2% - 38.6% (only a 1.4% rise- black population dropping in absolute terms)
Philadelphia, PA 43.2% - 43.4% (only a 0.2% rise - black population growing)
I think Milwaukee and Cincinnati have an outside shot of being majority black at some point, but likely not for another two generations at current rates.
I think Cincinnati might in a few decades, Milwaukee probably not.
Hattiesburg, MS and Valdosta, GA became majority black between 2000 and 2010 in addition to Mobile, AL as southernnaturelover mentioned. Pensacola has a while to go but there are other smaller southern cities that could become majority black soon. Hampton, VA likely already has since the 2010 census. Beaumont, TX or Columbus, GA are the southern cities that seems most likely to become majority black next although that might not be for another 20-30 years.
In the north, Saginaw, MI looks like it might become majority black within a decade.
I don't really expect Philadelphia to become majority black though. There are some neighbourhoods where whites are moving out to make way for blacks and other minorities like in Oxford Circle but a lot of those transitions are taking place in NJ and Delaware County suburbs. Meanwhile, the black population is decreasing in the black ghettos where the population as a whole is decreasing, and in gentrifying core neighbourhoods where the population of whites and other minorities is generally increasing. My prediction for Philadelphia is that the white population decreases a little, the black population increases a little roughly in line with overall population growth, and the Latino and Asian population grows rapidly, so I think the black population will stabilize around 45%.
An interesting perspective but the reality of reproduction rates suggests otherwise. The white exodus from middle class/lower middle class neighborhoods in Philly to the suburbs is exceeding the white population growth in the gentrified areas which tends to involve singles/couples without kids.
An interesting perspective but the reality of reproduction rates suggests otherwise. The white exodus from middle class/lower middle class neighborhoods in Philly to the suburbs is exceeding the white population growth in the gentrified areas which tends to involve singles/couples without kids.
But from 2000-2010, the black population increased by only 6,247 in Philly. Over the same period the Asian population increased 28,751 and the Latino population 58,683. Thus the white population should continue to decline, without the black population ever becoming the majority.
Most core cities with a population in the 40%-49% black range have a not insubstantial Latino population as well. This is why they will never become majority black - even if the white percentage continues to drop, the Latino (and frequently Asian) population are growing at a much more rapid rate, meaning they will never be more than plurality black. Here's some examples, looking at 2000 and 2010 numbers:
Milwaukee, WI 37.3% - 40% (2.7% rise - black population growing)
Cincinnati, OH 42.9% - 44.8% (only a 1.9% rise - black population dropping in absolute terms)
Buffalo, NY 37.2% - 38.6% (only a 1.4% rise- black population dropping in absolute terms)
Philadelphia, PA 43.2% - 43.4% (only a 0.2% rise - black population growing)
I think Milwaukee and Cincinnati have an outside shot of being majority black at some point, but likely not for another two generations at current rates.
Rochester NY is similar in this regard, as the city is about 42% Black, but it is also about 17% Hispanic/Latino. So, that may play a part in regards to if its Black percentage inches up.
This topic may also depend on who people include as well. I say that due to this site using more social based data in terms of demographics: US2010
But from 2000-2010, the black population increased by only 6,247 in Philly. Over the same period the Asian population increased 28,751 and the Latino population 58,683. Thus the white population should continue to decline, without the black population ever becoming the majority.
I disagree. Asian immigrants are driven by better educational opportunities and tend to work themselves into better neighborhoods (i.e. the suburbs) and with immigration numbers down that population will fall (and probably has since 2010). Also Philly has largely priced itself out of the NYC/Brooklyn Millennials exodus and is no longer the "bargain" it was 7-10 years ago. Factor in also that the vast majority of skilled, living wage jobs are located in the PA/NJ suburbs, there's not likely to be any growth of White/Non-Hispanic residents.
I disagree. Asian immigrants are driven by better educational opportunities and tend to work themselves into better neighborhoods (i.e. the suburbs) and with immigration numbers down that population will fall (and probably has since 2010). Also Philly has largely priced itself out of the NYC/Brooklyn Millennials exodus and is no longer the "bargain" it was 7-10 years ago. Factor in also that the vast majority of skilled, living wage jobs are located in the PA/NJ suburbs, there's not likely to be any growth of White/Non-Hispanic residents.
I cannot think of a single place in America where an Asian neighborhood has shifted to become a black neighborhood. There are a handful of places in LA where Asian neighborhoods have shifted to Latino ones. And there are many cases of historic Chinatowns which have gentrified and become white neighborhoods. But since there's no sign of the Asian influx slowing any time soon (it hasn't even peaked yet) it will be generations before there would be any "Asian Flight" to speak of out of urban cores.
It's also worth considering that Asian populations in some ways can prime areas for gentrification. In big diverse cities the children of Asian immigrants tend to be the top performers in the public school system. Thus if a neighborhood school begins shifting from majority black/Latino to Asian, test scores tend to rise. This results in white parents feeling more comfortable sending their kids to the local school. Paradoxically, there is evidence that in the suburbs very high Asian populations cause white families to flee public schools. Basically when Asian-Americans get control of a school board they are apt to institute very heavy course loads and academic standards, along with cutting extracurricular activities to the bone, which sticks in the craw of many white families.
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