Metropolitan Areas continue to grow (apartment, rent, homes)
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I'd love to be able to read whatever the point of this Pittsburgh article is, but sadly the paywall won't let me. So all I know is this: The economy of Western Pa (Pittsburgh specifically) sucks.
I am perplexed about all the talk, the last decade (really even longer) about Pittsburgh's turnaround and how its "up next"....when the population of the metro has been in decline for 3 strait decades. Eventually I know it should turn around, because it is a scenic area and I imagine that the quality of life is better there than in many boom towns. However, people just follow trends and businesses follow the trends of people and certain regions are just not trending.....even if they have all the right stuff. The first time I went to the Western PA area......I was astounded by the beauty.
The article is talking about Pittsburgh's Metro - Unfortunately outside of the core County (Allegheny) a lot of the Pittsburgh Metro is still stuck in a "Waiting for the Mills to come back" timewarp .... pretty much all of Pittsburgh's growth is within the walls of Allegheny County and those areas that immediately border it from the outside.
Just look at the Political Map of Pennsylvania, Allegheny county got Bluer this election, while Border counties all went Redder. Because Trump promised "To bring the Mills back" .... Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) said **** the Mills even if he could bring them back, Pittsburgh as moved on. The rest of the Metro, sadly, still clings to what once was.
So Pittsburgh/Allegheny county growth will NOT offset the high population losses in Armstrong, Westmorland, Fayette, Beaver counties. But the migration to Allegheny County is slowing the overall losses of the metro, but without significant births. The high elderly deaths will continue to put downward pressure on Metro numbers.
The consequences of having to create an entirely new economy from scratch. It's like if Ford had to stop making cars, and was forced instead to compete against Amazon. You can't expect Ford to grow during its change in corporate identity, because an old job would be subtracted for every new job added. It doesn't mean that the change in identity isn't happening, nor does it mean that it's doomed to fail, much as some might want to see it happen.
Moribund metropolitan areas do not grow their GDP or per capita income at the rate Pittsburgh has since 2000, because most metropolitan areas didn't regardless of whether they were growing or not. Moribund metropolitan areas don't grow their working-age populations like Pittsburgh did from 2000-2010 either. Elderly and young children accounted for more than the entire population loss during that period of time, while the working-age population grew by nearly 30,000.
Just like Denver, Portland, Brooklyn, etc, Pittsburgh's growth will take some time, but it will happen one day out of nowhere.
Even though Pittsburgh might be losing people, and might not have the job market to currently support a growing economy, it doesn't mean that it won't establish a "cool" factor within the 20 somethings or creative individuals. After the 2008 recession, the "cool" factor drove the initial boom of many cities we saw boom in the last 5 years.
During the next recession (which lets face it, WILL happen at some point), people are going to be losing their jobs, their homes, and become up rooted due to not affording the other high COL areas. This means that college grads, 20 somethings, artists, etc will have to look for a new place to live that they can afford (maybe even buy a house). Many people won't be able to get that cushy Fortune 500 job during a recession, so some will take jobs in the service industry. The service industry will thrive, and those who work in the service industry will be able to live a good life in an affordable city. After awhile, the word will get out that Pittsburgh is this cool and cheap place to live. Thanks to social media, the cities popularity will snow ball, and more people will choose to move there.
After that, the rest of the cities growth will happen naturally. Vacancy rates go down, rent goes up, developers move in, gentrification happens, and demand stays high. Companies will then want to build a presence, so they start to move their offices into the city because of it's trendiness and affordable office space. Some companies that are barely holding on in the high COL cities like SF, Austin, Denver, etc will decide to switch their location to this new place because it is cheaper and "everyone wants to move there".
But then Pittsburgh will have the same problems that booming cities have today. Double digit appreciation, clogged road infrastructure, unaffordability to the working class, etc.
Now I basically just inserted Pittsburgh into a generic template, however this is completely obtainable. I have already seen Pittsburgh become a hot spot for many of my younger or artist friends. They like that they can afford a great apartment downtown, and that studio space is so cheap. They also like how there aren't a lot of the white yuppie/hipster crowds in the city, which have flooded the previously "cool" places like Portland, Austin, SF, etc.
The article is talking about Pittsburgh's Metro - Unfortunately outside of the core County (Allegheny) a lot of the Pittsburgh Metro is still stuck in a "Waiting for the Mills to come back" timewarp .... pretty much all of Pittsburgh's growth is within the walls of Allegheny County and those areas that immediately border it from the outside.
Just look at the Political Map of Pennsylvania, Allegheny county got Bluer this election, while Border counties all went Redder. Because Trump promised "To bring the Mills back" .... Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) said **** the Mills even if he could bring them back, Pittsburgh as moved on. The rest of the Metro, sadly, still clings to what once was.
So Pittsburgh/Allegheny county growth will NOT offset the high population losses in Armstrong, Westmorland, Fayette, Beaver counties. But the migration to Allegheny County is slowing the overall losses of the metro, but without significant births. The high elderly deaths will continue to put downward pressure on Metro numbers.
Looks like Philadelphia metro is gaining in every county in PA and DE, most in SJ.
Now I basically just inserted Pittsburgh into a generic template, however this is completely obtainable. I have already seen Pittsburgh become a hot spot for many of my younger or artist friends. They like that they can afford a great apartment downtown, and that studio space is so cheap. They also like how there aren't a lot of the white yuppie/hipster crowds in the city, which have flooded the previously "cool" places like Portland, Austin, SF, etc.
Yet, these are the people that buy the art! Don't bite the hand that feeds you.
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