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States undergoing a paradigm shift in power (in the pecking order of the metropolitan areas):
Some states are essentially predetermined to remain as they are, where no shift is either conceivable or possible. That would be a state like Illinois, where the Chicago metropolitan area is and always will remain to be #1, going entirely unopposed by anywhere else in the state. No where else in IL will grow larger than Chicagoland or will become more economically prominent than Chicagoland.
So while IL is crystal clear, many American states to the contrary are not. Some are undergoing a shift in power internally where the largest metropolis is positioned to be surpassed by another in the same state, thus shifting what the most important city in the state is. Take for example a state like Ohio. The 3 C's of Ohio are Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland and the state has seen shifting away from Cleveland and towards Columbus and perhaps Cincinnati. The fastest population growth in OH is in Columbus and then Cincinnati, and recently Columbus surpassed Cleveland and is gaining on Cincinnati to become the states #1 most populous MSA. The same shift is likely occurring with each of their respective GDPs as well. Columbus will probably be the #1 city in Ohio at some point, if it isn't already now.
I'm sure there are other states out there seeing a similar process unfold. State the states and the cities involved and describe the shift.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 12-14-2017 at 02:57 PM..
Some projections are expecting Houston to surpass DFW within the next five decades to become number one. I wouldn't be surprised if El Paso falls behind the Valley.
Some projections are expecting Houston to surpass DFW within the next five decades to become number one. I wouldn't be surprised if El Paso falls behind the Valley.
Houston is in the midst of some deep soul searching into how it's going to move forward regarding its infrastructure and built environment after Harvey. In light of that and the fact that it would need to continue to grow massively to outpace DFW, which is growing just as fast and doesn't face the same severe threat from climate change, I doubt it will surpass DFW.
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Kansas City over St Louis is a very far out possibility at the metro level, but it’s arguably surpassed it at the city level. Still, the gap (gdp, population) seems to be too great to catch up to, even with St Louis’ city proper decline.
Nashville has already surpassed Memphis at the city proper level, though it was never Tennessee’s second city to begin with. Austin surpassed San Antonio in gdp this decade, and is arguably more popular in the national psyche. Other than those, I can’t think of a state with multiple metros that will have one over take the other.
Houston is in the midst of some deep soul searching into how it's going to move forward regarding its infrastructure and built environment after Harvey. In light of that and the fact that it would need to continue to grow massively to outpace DFW, which is growing just as fast and doesn't face the same severe threat from climate change, I doubt it will surpass DFW.
I think Houston would just grow further north and west. Nothing in it's way to block further expansion away from the coast. Also Houston bounced back pretty quickly after Harvey. Which is rather incredible considering how severe the impact was. No area is immune to natural disasters. Not even DFW.
The northern parts of the state (Reno and the rural areas) used to share a distribution of population with the southern part of the state (Las Vegas/Clark County).
Now, with 2.5 million people, Las Vegas/Clark County has clearly pulled ahead as the major population center of the state of Nevada.
The state legislature and state policy is now largely dominated by Clark County as a result.
That's why Nevada has gone from being a rural, conservative Republican, quasi-libertarian state to a more centrist and Democratic-leaning libertarian state.
The northern parts of the state (Reno and the rural areas) used to share a distribution of population with the southern part of the state (Las Vegas/Clark County).
Now, with 2.5 million people, Las Vegas/Clark County has clearly pulled ahead as the major population center of the state of Nevada.
The state legislature and state policy is now largely dominated by Clark County as a result.
That's why Nevada has gone from being a rural, conservative Republican, quasi-libertarian state to a more centrist and Democratic-leaning libertarian state.
Greater Richmond has definitely taken the sails from Hampton Roads. Richmond has a GDP of $80,702 billion compared to $92,827 billion in Hampton Roads, though Hampton Roads has 445,000 more people. The growth in both Richmond City and metro Richmond is crushing the growth in metro Hampton Roads and any singular HR city multiple times over. It's long been understood that Richmond is "the city" in VA but currently Richmond is putting am exclamation point on the fact...
Arkansas possibly qualifies with all of the growth going on in NW AR.
I haven't looked at recent statistics but a few years ago NW Arkansas was still quite a ways from overtaking Little Rock. One big disadvantage NWA will always have is it doesn't have an anchor city but instead is a bunch of small towns that have grown together.
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oxymoron!
