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Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aquest1
Caroline, the forested chasm between RVA and NOVA. Do you think Caroline is ultimately on its way to join the DC CSA? Whereas for decades it's been tied to Richmond, Caroline's growth in the last decade and a half has been more catered to the Fredericksburg and DC commuters. There are distribution centers there that only serve Washington/Northern VA, e.g. Harris Teeter. And there have been rumblings of expanding VRE service to Milford/Bowling Green, which would seal the deal. Still, while dropping below the commuter threshold (at only 30 miles from downtown Richmond), its social linkage to Richmond is way stronger. At 30k+ folks and the historic Port Royal community, that's a loss for Richmond.
True story just last week, I was conversing with a colleague at work, never knew where he lived. He commutes from Ladysmith/Caroline County to Arlington 5 days a week, albeit leaves home at 4:30am. I was shocked, definitely didn’t know people came from that far. He’s like one exit away from Kings Dominion commuting practically to DC.
Ok sorry if this has already been asked. Does this represent an official metro realignment? Why have I been under the impression this only happens every 10 years on the 3's? What am I not understanding here?
Yes, this is akin to the 2013 re-alignment. In 2013, OMB issued new delineations AND said they were going to re-define boundaries again after 5 years using, I believe, better ACS data. So this is that 2018 rewrite. There will be another in 2023.
Caroline, the forested chasm between RVA and NOVA. Do you think Caroline is ultimately on its way to join the DC CSA? Whereas for decades it's been tied to Richmond, Caroline's growth in the last decade and a half has been more catered to the Fredericksburg and DC commuters. There are distribution centers there that only serve Washington/Northern VA, e.g. Harris Teeter. And there have been rumblings of expanding VRE service to Milford/Bowling Green, which would seal the deal. Still, while dropping below the commuter threshold (at only 30 miles from downtown Richmond), its social linkage to Richmond is way stronger. At 30k+ folks and the historic Port Royal community, that's a loss for Richmond.
Yes, I think Caroline County has a seen a huge spike in commuting to the Fredericksburg area recently. And that dropped Richmond below 25% market share, maybe to 20-25%. But because Caroline isn't a Micro, it wasn't added to a Richmond CSA. Hence it being removed completely.
At the same time Fredericksburg isn't a core county of the DC metro, so higher commuting there doesn't make Caroline any closer to joining the Washington CSA. For Caroline to join the CSA we'll need either (a) it becoming a Micro (unlikely) or (b) 25% interchange with Stafford and Prince William (by which point it joins the MSA as well).
Once Fredericksburg becomes as a core county (city technically), then I suspect King George, Orange and Caroline will join the MSA soon thereafter.
So Grand Rapids went from the Grand Rapids-Wyoming, to Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA. However Wyoming still has over 20,000 more residents than Kentwood. Since they are all obviously still in the same county what's the logic behind the change in nomenclature?
I'm also surprised about Barry County being dropped and Ionia County be absorbed. Technically it results in a net gain of 4,000 residents. Largely rural Barry County has been part of the Grand Rapids MSA calculations since they started. Almost all of it's growth comes on the exurban border with Kent County. Additionally it's growth rates have been accelerating the last couple of years. The housing crunch in Kent County has pushed new residents further and further out. It surprises me especially with the extra growth that commuting patterns would shift away given the trends. I'm wondering what would have shifted commuting patterns enough so that it wouldn't even appear in the CSA at this point. It's not listed as a micropolitan area, perhaps that negates it's criteria from being included. Is it possible that it just barely dipped below the commuting threshold, and since it's not a micro area, that it's now just a statistical island?
Grand Rapids has always been a problem child for the statisticians at the OMB. For example the city of Holland techincally isn't even in the "Holland Michigan Micropolitan area". Only a small portion of it is in that county, the bulk of the city and it's urban area are counted in the Grand Rapids MSA.
True story just last week, I was conversing with a colleague at work, never knew where he lived. He commutes from Ladysmith/Caroline County to Arlington 5 days a week, albeit leaves home at 4:30am. I was shocked, definitely didn’t know people came from that far. He’s like one exit away from Kings Dominion commuting practically to DC.
I read this article a couple of years ago about how more people from Caroline County were starting to commute to NoVA/DC so I'm not surprised at all.
CSA’s are incredibly stupid. DC metro now comes within ten miles of Pennsylvania. It’s ridiculous.
Yeah I think a revision of criteria is needed at this point. Atlanta's CSA already extended into Alabama and with the inclusion of the Toccoa micropolitan area, it now also directly borders SC. It's a bit much.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,129 posts, read 7,568,606 times
Reputation: 5786
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
Yeah I think a revision of criteria is needed at this point. Atlanta's CSA already extended into Alabama and with the inclusion of the Toccoa micropolitan area, it now also directly borders SC. It's a bit much.
I would love for this too. DC-Baltimore just shed one of its Eastern Shore counties, that has very little to do with it. I'd like to see a number of the low density exurbs that are 75+ miles away from either city taken away. That way people can actually realize that DC-Baltimore's population still runs at around 9 million without all of that excess baggage pretty much in a line up I-95 counties or I-270, or I-97 counties.
Yeah I think a revision of criteria is needed at this point. Atlanta's CSA already extended into Alabama and with the inclusion of the Toccoa micropolitan area, it now also directly borders SC. It's a bit much.
Wow, they added Toccoa to Atlanta?
Count me in with the chorus for years that has been clamoring for criterion revisioning by the OMB; also count me into the crowd that finds CSAs basically irrelevant...
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