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Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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I think Chicago CSA at 9,901,356, officially gets passed up by DC-Baltimore this go around also, especially if the rate of population loss has not subsided or even worse has an increase. If not 2019 most definitely by 2020. Will also be interesting to see if DC-Baltimore-NOVA region surpasses 10 million by the Census. The greater region was at 9,765,772 as of July 2017, so it's very possible.
Chicago is losing a segment of its population to the south....that's been discussed over and over on this forum, so you probably already know that. Moving into Chicago, are professionals...that's easily verifiable, as well.
For the past 8 years the inflow of young professionals has been enough to keeps Chicago in the black in terms of Population, so the general dynamic hasn't changed but the balance may have.
Is it metro Chicago or is it Downstate? We will find out in March
Last year it was both. Places like Champaign/Urbana growing simply isn't enough to offset the rest of the state contracting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enean
Chicago is losing a segment of its population to the south....that's been discussed over and over on this forum, so you probably already know that. Moving into Chicago, are professionals...that's easily verifiable, as well.
I think Chicago CSA at 9,901,356, officially gets passed up by DC-Baltimore this go around also, especially if the rate of population loss has not subsided or even worse has an increase. If not 2019 most definitely by 2020. Will also be interesting to see if DC-Baltimore-NOVA region surpasses 10 million by the Census. The greater region was at 9,765,772 as of July 2017, so it's very possible.
The measure of a city is MSA, not CSA. What are those numbers? As you well know, Chicago's MSA and CSA are almost the same. You don't have to combine other large cities to reach that number, with Chicago.
I think Chicago CSA at 9,901,356, officially gets passed up by DC-Baltimore this go around also, especially if the rate of population loss has not subsided or even worse has an increase. If not 2019 most definitely by 2020. Will also be interesting to see if DC-Baltimore-NOVA region surpasses 10 million by the Census. The greater region was at 9,765,772 as of July 2017, so it's very possible.
Should we assume DC proper really is at 705,000 people since the census has revised the DC population numbers up around 3,000 people every year for about three years in a row? Last year, we were at 692,000ish and then they revised it up to 695,000ish.
The trend has been that the faster population growth numbers in percentage terms are now shifting to the West instead of the South. Most of the Midwest and Northeast is losing population with the exception of some of the metro areas. Rural areas in general are declining at a much greater rate now than at almost any time in the past. This is true for rural areas regardless of region unless they have offer high-end levels of scenery that appeal to retirees with wealth like mountains, coastal areas, or lakes.
The trend has been that the faster population growth numbers in percentage terms are now shifting to the West instead of the South. Most of the Midwest and Northeast is losing population with the exception of some of the metro areas. Rural areas in general are declining at a much greater rate now than at almost any time in the past. This is true for rural areas regardless of region unless they have offer high-end levels of scenery that appeal to retirees with wealth like mountains, coastal areas, or lakes.
The West and South regions are actually growing at virtually the same rate of +0.9% over the past year. One important distinction is that the largest Western state of California is undergoing substantial out-migration to many of the other states in that region, and fueling much of their considerable growth. In the South, on the other hand, the largest states of Florida and Texas are growing more quickly than most of the others. So the number of states in a region in the higher or lower growth ranges can be a bit misleading, when their sizes vary so much.
Sure, rural areas are stagnant in general but virtually every state has at least one relatively prosperous metropolitan section. This helped every Midwest state aside from Illinois (ironically, the largest and most urban in the region) experience at least a little population growth in 2018.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,128 posts, read 7,560,868 times
Reputation: 5785
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar
Should we assume DC proper really is at 705,000 people since the census has revised the DC population numbers up around 3,000 people every year for about three years in a row? Last year, we were at 692,000ish and then they revised it up to 695,000ish.
Probably so, I do know they do revise up almost every year so if 702,000 is the original estimate, I'd guess a couple thousand more based on consecutive trends year after year.
These numbers for both Texas and Florida include all of 2017's devastating hurricanes; Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, and Hurricane Maria.
Florida accelerated significantly because it absorbed population gains from Puerto Rico due to the devastation of Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Irma. Texas in contrast slowed down from July 1, 2017 to July 1, 2018 because of Hurricane Harvey damaging Houston (when metropolitan area numbers come out, I expect Greater Houston to be + 55,000 or + 60,000 instead of its usual + 100,000 or more due to Harvey). In both cases this is a one year thing, meaning next year when the 2019 numbers come out Texas will be back to its regular + 400,000 people or more with Houston back to normal (as its job growth numbers imply) and Florida will be returning back to normal as well. It will not be absorbing growth from Puerto Rico's devastation in 2019, so Florida should be somewhere between the range of + 250,000 to + 300,000 people. Which is the normal range for Florida in an average to good year.
The bigger story to ponder over is why California has slowed to a crawl and why New York is now leading the United States in raw number population decline. From July 1, 2017 (post-revision numbers) to July 1, 2018 the state of New York declined -48,000 people.
I disagree on Houston, if I remember correctly Houston as one of it not the youngest major metropolitan area (Major meaning Seattle/Saint Paul/Denver/San Diego ish and up) gains 50% of its growth (100,000+) from childbirths alone, not to mention 20% from international migration. I don’t see a slowdown in the metro on housing growth so I expect Houston should fall in the 75,000-100,000 range rather than lower than that. Anecdotal but the only people I have heard who left the area post-Harvey are established families in wealthy/middle class areas that got flooded their not having children. Poorer/younger communities just relocated to other parts of Houston or stayed put because they can’t afford to move and that is the majority of those having children in the area.
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