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I think California will hold on to the top spot like some have said for the next 30-40 years but will eventually be passed by Texas but barely.
I think the demographic shift in Texas will change tax policy and the oil industry golden goose will eventually stop laying golden eggs. Texas won't do well in a climate change universe.
So you are saying the entire state of Texas is dependent on oil for growth.
Could have fooled me but always though than Texas had a super high birth rate.
Austin, SA, the Valley, heck that entire I35 corridor from Mexico to Oklahoma has been booming for 50 years and I don't think it had anything to do with oil.
The panhandle is where all the oil growth had been happening in the last few decades and that are has never been that big on growth so can we stop using oil to explain all things Texas. Probably 75% of Texas growth occurs along the I35 corridor and that is totally unrelated to Oil. Give it a break. Even Houston, the oil capital puts out positive net growth of 100k even with negative domestic migration caused by slumps in the oil industry, and it does that due to its high natural birth numbers and high international migration numbers.
I think the demographic shift in Texas will change tax policy and the oil industry golden goose will eventually stop laying golden eggs. Texas won't do well in a climate change universe.
Although oil is big in Texas, it's not as dominant as it used to be. The state's economy has diversified a lot over the past 30 years.
I think California's claim to fame will be #1 in illegal population growth.
I think this is one of the biggest problems with the demographic state of California. While I support immigration, I do not think California is the place with the most opportunities for immigrants, yet they continue to dump into coastal CA (especially immigrants from across the Pacific), perpetuating a large lower class and tech upper class divide.
I could see CA peaking right about now at 41 million and then starting to fall, stagnate, grow slowly again and by 2050 possibly hit 44 million? Maybe?
Texas at this rate is going to boom.. isnt current 2010-2018 growth rate average pushing it over 50 million by 2050? I think growth will slow (maybe?). Maybe oppressive heat will eventually drive people out of TX? Its very tough to predict. If I had to throw all my eggs in one basket id GUESS that it would look something like this by 2050:
1. California: 44 million
2. Texas: 41 million
3. Florida: 31 million
4. New York: 20 million
5. North Carolina: 16 million
5. Georgia: 16 million
6. Pennsylvania: 15 million
7. Illinois: 14 million
8. Ohio: 13 million
9. Washington: 11 million
10. Arizona: 11 million
11. Michigan: 11 million
12. Virginia: 10.5 million
13. New Jersey: 10 million
14. Massachusetts: 8.8 million
15. Tennessee: 8.5 million
I could see CA peaking right about now at 41 million and then starting to fall, stagnate, grow slowly again and by 2050 possibly hit 44 million? Maybe?
Texas at this rate is going to boom.. isnt current 2010-2018 growth rate average pushing it over 50 million by 2050? I think growth will slow (maybe?). Maybe oppressive heat will eventually drive people out of TX? Its very tough to predict. If I had to throw all my eggs in one basket id GUESS that it would look something like this by 2050:
1. California: 44 million
2. Texas: 41 million
3. Florida: 31 million
4. New York: 20 million
5. North Carolina: 16 million
5. Georgia: 16 million
6. Pennsylvania: 15 million
7. Illinois: 14 million
8. Ohio: 13 million
9. Washington: 11 million
10. Arizona: 11 million
11. Michigan: 11 million
12. Virginia: 10.5 million
13. New Jersey: 10 million
14. Massachusetts: 8.8 million
15. Tennessee: 8.5 million
I do believe TX will surpass CA by 2050, but that's just my guess. The outmigration from Cali is already happening, as the slowing growth numbers/chart is indicating over the past few years, and I only expect that trend to keep going.
FL, GA, PA, and NC will all continue their rapid growth, likely at untouchable speeds. Ohio might even pass up Illinois in that time.
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