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Old 11-08-2019, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
3,720 posts, read 1,874,129 times
Reputation: 2391

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago60614 View Post
?? Amish are 0.5% of Pennsylvania's population. Even the orthodox jewish population of New York is a very small percentile overall.
Agreed but since 2000- Both the Amish and Orthodox Jewish population have doubled in the U.S.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.her...35f6b.amp.html

The Amish are about 6% of the population of the county but represent 40% of the Counties growth. New York has similar demographics with the Orthodox Jewish population.

These states, Pennsylvania and New York are two of the older states in the nation and neither is seeing anywhere near sunbelt growth. As the Orthodox Jewish and Amish population double in 20 years that 1-2% of the state population will eventually be 2-4% which could easily drive up growth especially if the rest of the state is in decline to the point where their are more Orthodox Jews and Amish born than their are deaths of old people hence fueling population growth. It might not be true in 2040 but in 2060 for a fact if birth rates stay high and retention rates within those communities stay high they will massively effect growth rates in states where the population is old and starting to or already declining.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/forward...lation/%3fgamp

Pew did research on Orthodox Jewish growth among Jews and while Jewish population is dropping because of high intermarriage among those that identify as secular, a similar thing with a much smaller percent of people is happening in these states, both groups average about 5+ kids per woman and NY and Pennsylvania’s birth rates might be as low as 1.4-1.6 by 2040 maybe even lower, it’s easy to see how these groups while small will have a massive effect on these two states.
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Old 11-08-2019, 10:03 AM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
3,720 posts, read 1,874,129 times
Reputation: 2391
Quote:
Originally Posted by 216facts View Post
Did this come from the onion or fox?
I explained my reasoning. I don’t think they’ll be like 50% of the state or anything ridiculous like that but their is already signs that an Amish population as small as 4% could easily fuel the majority of population growth especially in states with declining populations.

https://medium.com/migration-issues/...sh-268e3d0de87

Here’s the current situation in Pennsylvania- https://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/sdc/pasdc_..._CntyEst18.pdf
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Old 11-08-2019, 10:13 AM
 
Location: Piedmont, CA/São Paulo, Brazil
33,062 posts, read 56,410,512 times
Reputation: 16152
The entire country's growth rate is slowing down folks, we arent having enough births to meet replacement needs. Even our fastest growing states now arent growing as fast as they used to.
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Old 11-08-2019, 01:07 PM
 
Location: Point Loma, San Diego, CA
1,733 posts, read 1,301,818 times
Reputation: 1529
Quote:
Originally Posted by march2 View Post
As someone who's ranked metros since 1985, "Suburban-minded" metros/states is what most people want due to affordability, better buying power, many more home buying choices. Stats prove this. High density (as you seem to support) raises costs of living astronomically putting homeownership out of reach for most people, which, in turn, tends to lower growth rates as people flee to more affordable areas.
The idea behind moving to these states is generally that you're going to get the house and the yard that you don't qualify for elsewhere, hence "suburban minded." If this keeps going, one of two things have to happen-1)infrastructure gets built to accommodate increased population and mitigate increased COL, or 2) you get a big, congested, somewhat dense megaburbia inching towards coastal prices.

We see right now that some of these places are starting to get dense with COL increases, and have no plan to build infrastructure because of the "suburban minded" Catch 22-the people moving in see the lack of infrastructure as a feature, not a bug.
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Old 11-08-2019, 07:01 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
11,273 posts, read 3,408,256 times
Reputation: 8487
Quote:
Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare View Post
Agreed but since 2000- Both the Amish and Orthodox Jewish population have doubled in the U.S.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.her...35f6b.amp.html

The Amish are about 6% of the population of the county but represent 40% of the Counties growth. New York has similar demographics with the Orthodox Jewish population.

These states, Pennsylvania and New York are two of the older states in the nation and neither is seeing anywhere near sunbelt growth. As the Orthodox Jewish and Amish population double in 20 years that 1-2% of the state population will eventually be 2-4% which could easily drive up growth especially if the rest of the state is in decline to the point where their are more Orthodox Jews and Amish born than their are deaths of old people hence fueling population growth. It might not be true in 2040 but in 2060 for a fact if birth rates stay high and retention rates within those communities stay high they will massively effect growth rates in states where the population is old and starting to or already declining.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/forward...lation/%3fgamp

Pew did research on Orthodox Jewish growth among Jews and while Jewish population is dropping because of high intermarriage among those that identify as secular, a similar thing with a much smaller percent of people is happening in these states, both groups average about 5+ kids per woman and NY and Pennsylvania’s birth rates might be as low as 1.4-1.6 by 2040 maybe even lower, it’s easy to see how these groups while small will have a massive effect on these two states.
The problem with extrapolating existing conditions is that the conditions change.

Back in 1960 Mormons averaged, like, 6 kids a family. Now I think the average is less than 4.

A lot of people also leave the Amish order and get absorbed into modern society. When that happens undoubtedly those people don't have as many kids.
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Old 11-09-2019, 01:38 AM
 
Location: WA Desert, Seattle native
6,410 posts, read 4,243,199 times
Reputation: 4877
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
Hello... California is growing quickly. I dont know where people get the impression that California is shrinking due to people leaving. Hey, did you know that most of those people leaving are retirees? Yes, it is not true that there is an Exodus from Californoa due to the cost of living and political environment. Dont believe everything the media tells you.
It is not just the media, there are stats to back it up...

https://qz.com/1599150/californias-p...ing-very-soon/
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Old 11-09-2019, 05:18 AM
 
21 posts, read 3,649 times
Reputation: 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbcook1 View Post
Yep the fertility rate in the US has dropped from 2.12 in 2007 to 1.728 in 2018 and looks set to drop below 1.7 in 2019.

Compounding this issue, the only other source of growth (immigration) has dropped sharply in the US to a mere 200,000 last year which is half what Germany got in the same period. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/u...migration.html

The truth is that the US is not quite the shining beacon for huge immigrant attraction as it was in the past. Yes there is a Trump effect here, but I don't see the US maintaining 1 million immigrants a year from here on out as it has in previous years. I would say 300,000 - 500,000 is more likely. Many countries like Germany, Sweden, Canada, Australia, Japan (yep Japan. It attracted a record 200,000 immigrants last year), Singapore, France, Norway, Switzerland, and Austria are really becoming just as competitive and appealing places to migrate to as the US and the US will have to compete that much harder to attract skilled immigrants here than it has in the past.

I honestly don't see the US population ever reaching 400 million at this point as previous predictions have assumed it would by the year 2060. On another note, cities and urban areas will continue to grow for the most part at the expense of a very steep decline in rural and exurban areas I foresee. Japan for example has shrunk by 2 million people since 2010, but its largest cities have all grown in population since then.

The US is still a very attractive immigrant destination. The reason why it receives comparatively fewer immigrants is because since the last decade and a half US immigration rules have been extremely strict, and the number of places on offer very limited. If you are white collar professional with no previous links to the US your options to immigrate are almost non-existent (I know because I briefly looked in it). If the US government decides to open up its immigration programs and accept more people it can easily attract close to 1 million people a year. A large portion of immigrants that move to Canada and Australia only do so as their second choice, as the path to the US is virtually closed and these countries have a relatively open and targeted immigration program for skilled professionals. I'm guessing the same is true for the other countries mentioned.
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Old 11-09-2019, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,643 posts, read 838,462 times
Reputation: 1779
Quote:
Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare View Post
Agreed but since 2000- Both the Amish and Orthodox Jewish population have doubled in the U.S.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.her...35f6b.amp.html

The Amish are about 6% of the population of the county but represent 40% of the Counties growth. New York has similar demographics with the Orthodox Jewish population.

These states, Pennsylvania and New York are two of the older states in the nation and neither is seeing anywhere near sunbelt growth. As the Orthodox Jewish and Amish population double in 20 years that 1-2% of the state population will eventually be 2-4% which could easily drive up growth especially if the rest of the state is in decline to the point where their are more Orthodox Jews and Amish born than their are deaths of old people hence fueling population growth. It might not be true in 2040 but in 2060 for a fact if birth rates stay high and retention rates within those communities stay high they will massively effect growth rates in states where the population is old and starting to or already declining.

The Amish population is spread out across numerous states, so they are not likely to have much impact on statewide growth numbers. The Lancaster, PA area is well known for Amish communities, but with its proximity to the big cities, land is getting expensive and some of the Amish are resettling elsewhere, often in the Midwest. Indiana is estimated as having the highest proportion of Amish residents among states at about 0.9%, with Ohio second and Pennsylvania third.
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Old 11-09-2019, 01:47 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,643 posts, read 838,462 times
Reputation: 1779
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjbradleynyc View Post
*I predict California will slow
*Continue population boom growth will be: Texas, Washington, Virginia, Utah, & Arizona
*North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee & South Carolina will continue to grow well, but not surge as much

I agree with most of this, but am not sure why Virginia would have faster growth prospects than the other Southeast states? In most recent years Virginia has been growing at a slower pace than North Carolina or Georgia. Virginia is overall a higher cost of living state than others in the region, and as seniors become a larger share of the country's population, affordability becomes an increasingly large factor for relocation choices.
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Old 11-09-2019, 03:14 PM
 
4,631 posts, read 4,791,588 times
Reputation: 4160
Quote:
Originally Posted by Losfrisco View Post
My predictions-

Texas will start to grow even faster, despite massive public opposition, Houston will eventually unveil a huge Metrorail expansion and some kind of enhanced train service to DFW.

California will disappoint haters by growing at the same clip (there's really no basis to predict any slowing of growth, but go ahead and watch every post on this thread predict exactly that) suburban-minded states like TN, FL, UT, NC, and NV will see population slow or even decline because they were never serious about building any infrastructure to accommodate the growth to begin with.
California needs a housing crash. There would be less out migration with more affordable housing.
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