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Old 11-12-2019, 10:59 AM
 
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Nashville is booming. No one talks about Knoxville or Memphis as sharing that. Virginia and Tennessee are growing fine, but they are behind most of the rest of the Southeast.
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Old 11-12-2019, 12:26 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
Nashville is booming. No one talks about Knoxville or Memphis as sharing that. Virginia and Tennessee are growing fine, but they are behind most of the rest of the Southeast.
I was in Chattanooga last year and was surprised by the amount of growth and development in and around downtown. It is also growing at a pretty healthy clip. The city may even be growing faster than Nashville now... https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/...te-top/471907/

And its average income growth is something like sixth in the nation. https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/...growth/479344/

I was also in Knoxville last year and while there is quite a bit of construction and bustle downtown, I would say you are correct it is not growing nearly as fast as Nashville or Chattanooga as far as I could tell.
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Old 11-12-2019, 03:01 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newgensandiego View Post
I think the Massachusetts vs. Tennessee comparison is particularly interesting, especially considering how much hype there is about TN booming (well maybe just Nashville). It's definitely growing by a lot, but it's helpful to see that a state of near-equal population (MA) that doesn't have a national reputation for growth is growing at similar levels.

And as many others have said, it's helpful to point out that CA is still growing robustly. 2.3 million people is equivalent to the Sacramento metropolitan area or Riverside County (10th most populous in the country).

Virginia is still growing robustly, although it's not in the news as much. I'm wondering if it because growth is more spread out. Whereas Tennessee is booming in large part due to Nashville, Virginia has robust/steady growth in the DC suburbs, greater Richmond, and, surprisingly, even in rural towns near Appalachia (Roanoke, Lynchburg).
I wouldn't classify areas like Roanoke and Lynchburg as growing robustly at all-steady, but not not robust.

Roanoke is growing, sure, but below is the 2010 vs 2018 city population:

Independent city (2010) 97,032
Estimate (2018) 99,920

Whereas Lynchburg's growth is below, during the same timeframe:

Independent city 75,568
Estimate (2018) 82,126

Southwest Virginia, pretty much from Roanoke to the Tennessee border, has anemic growth to population loss.

The bulk of Virginia's robust growth is far and wide the DC suburbs.

As for Tennessee, Nashville's metro area leads by far, followed by Knoxville's metro and then Chattanooga. Memphis is stagnant to just a trickle of population growth.
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Old 11-15-2019, 03:43 PM
 
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My prediction is that due to falling birthrates, the population will stagnate at some point.
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Old 11-15-2019, 06:08 PM
 
Location: Bergen County, New Jersey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubb Rubb View Post
My prediction is that due to falling birthrates, the population will stagnate at some point.
Immigration rates however
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Old 11-15-2019, 08:20 PM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
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Colorado will continue to grow.
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Old 11-16-2019, 03:28 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
Immigration rates however
Birthrates world wide are falling, except Africa and the odds of them finding a way to immigrate here aren’t very high especially if Europe is much closer to them.
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Old 11-16-2019, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Bergen County, New Jersey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubb Rubb View Post
Birthrates world wide are falling, except Africa and the odds of them finding a way to immigrate here aren’t very high especially if Europe is much closer to them.
Again. Immigration gives us a buffer of about 1.1 million people a year.
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Old 11-23-2019, 12:56 PM
 
Location: California
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After an extended visit to the Upper Midwest this summer, I theorize that states in this region such as Michigan and Wisconsin, for example, will make a resurgence in the mid-21st century and, as a result, experience population growth for several major reasons:
  • Climate Change: Over time, seasonal warming will make the cold season in the Upper Midwest milder and shorter (i.e., more tolerable for most Americans). Additionally, climate change will make the massive freshwater supply of the Great Lakes Basin much more attractive from a national standpoint, as states in the Sun Belt with high population growth continue to experience severe drought conditions and major water shortages and crises. Finally, enormous, highly destructive hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires throughout the Sun Belt will make the Great Lakes Basin more attractive, which is relatively insulated from major natural disasters.

  • Demographic Change: Eventually, the Sun Belt will have such a high minority population that non-Hispanic whites will not feel comfortable and welcome in this region of America. Massive, statewide "white flight" in California over the past 30 years offers us a glimpse into the future of non-Hispanic whites in the greater Sun Belt region. Since California became a majority-minority state in 1990's, non-Hispanic whites have essentially been "voting with their feet" and migrating to other states where non-Hispanic whites are still dominant such as Idaho, Oregon and Utah, for example. However, as of 2019, a number of other Sun Belt states are also majority-minority (e.g., Nevada, New Mexico and Texas) and many others are strongly trending in that direction (e.g., Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, etc.). The Upper Midwest is still mostly non-Hispanic white and, as a result, the public school systems in suburban and exurban areas have much better child and student outcomes compared to equivalent areas in most Sun Belt states, especially Arizona, California and Nevada.

  • Political Change: Of course, political change goes hand-in-hand with demographic change, at least in the United States. As states that were once Republican strongholds such as Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Texas become increasingly liberal due to out-migration of whites from California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York, the states of the Industrial Midwest and Northeast will trend more conservative, especially as first- and second-generation German-, Italian-, Polish- and Scandinavian-Americans in these states becomes fully ancestral and, subsequently, the population trends towards 100% American-born-and-bred (i.e., four grandparents born in America). We can already observe this trend in states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin based on the results of 2016 presidential election. Even 14-15 towns in my home state of Rhode Island voted to elect Donald Trump in the last presidential election (the highest number in decades).

  • Right-to-Work: The disassembly and dissolution of right-to-work laws in the Upper Midwest will provide a competitive economic advantage to existing and future corporations because the workforce in this region is already well-educated and highly skilled to begin with, unlike the workforce of Arizona or South Carolina, for example.

  • Affordable Housing: The incredibly low cost of housing from a national perspective will be increasingly attractive feature of the Upper Midwest for families that are priced out of states like California, Colorado and Florida. In most of the Upper Midwest, residential homes in suburban and exurban areas feature basements, garages, long driveways and large front and backyards. Also, neighborhoods stay neat and tidy with HOA fees and assessments. Have you ever visited a neighborhood in Florida without an HOA? LOL.
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Old 11-23-2019, 01:24 PM
 
Location: Green Country
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
Nashville is booming. No one talks about Knoxville or Memphis as sharing that. Virginia and Tennessee are growing fine, but they are behind most of the rest of the Southeast.
Not true.

Here's Nashville's Davidson County's growth in the past 5 years:
2014: 670,180
2015: 680,884
2016: 687,430
2017: 689,006
2018: 692,587

+22,407 in 4 years, or +5,602 per year.

In 504.03 mi², that's pitiful growth.

My area of Alexandria/Arlington has grown by +20,577 in 4 years, or +5,144 per year....in 41.00 mi².
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