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Old 12-30-2019, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Green Country
2,845 posts, read 2,755,800 times
Reputation: 4701

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Quote:
Originally Posted by the resident09 View Post
Isn't that mostly due to the population loss of Illinois? PA grew but by less than 10k wasn't it?
Pennsylvania grew by +1,067 and all of that was natural increase.

Starting next year, PA's natural increase will go negative and that's when things really get ugly.

Illinois is the opposite. It has a healthy natural increase of +34,000, but loses 100,000 people to other states, which is insane. PA only loses 20,000 (which is offset by +20,000 in international immigration).

If Illinois can reverse domestic outmigration, it can actually become of the healthier states demographically.

Pennsylvania is more stable, but has a more predictive decline. Natural increase will continue to trend downward with gradually increasing population declines. Basically the Japan trajectory.

Illinois has a higher ceiling than PA, but a lower floor due to outmigration.
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Old 12-30-2019, 12:33 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
8,196 posts, read 5,322,117 times
Reputation: 12026
Im not concerned about the slower number of immigrants coming in because there is a logical explanation for it. Our biggest contributor of immigrants has always been Mexico but things are going much better there right now economically. There hasnt been as big a need to come here. Its not a political issue either since the decline in Mexican immigration started around 2012.
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Old 12-30-2019, 12:36 PM
 
Location: Baltimore
21,428 posts, read 12,414,626 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by As Above So Below... View Post
Im not concerned about the slower number of immigrants coming in because there is a logical explanation for it. Our biggest contributor of immigrants has always been Mexico but things are going much better there right now economically. There hasnt been as big a need to come here. Its not a political issue either since the decline in Mexican immigration started around 2012.
A lot of places don't rely on Mexico much if at all and never have. Slow growth an population loss in the urban northeast is not a good sign as it is the most economically powerful part of the country.
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Old 12-30-2019, 12:39 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
8,196 posts, read 5,322,117 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
A lot of places don't rely on Mexico much if at all and never have. Slow growth an population loss in the urban northeast is not a good sign as it is the most economically powerful part of the country.
I was speaking just of the international immigration numbers.

As far as the Northeast is concerned, I still contend that weather (for all age groups) is a big factor. People just seem to like warm and moderate climates overall. Its not the economy as job creation is going quite strong in the Northeast. COL is part of it as well, but I actually the the weather is more a part of it.
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Old 12-30-2019, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Baltimore
21,428 posts, read 12,414,626 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by As Above So Below... View Post
I was speaking just of the international immigration numbers.

As far as the Northeast is concerned, I still contend that weather (for all age groups) is a big factor. People just seem to like warm and moderate climates overall. Its not the economy as job creation is going quite strong in the Northeast. COL is part of it as well, but I actually the the weather is more a part of it.
no no no. Massachusetts was booming for most of the decade CT had a few years with gains. NYC was booming from 2010-2015. Philly is growing. Even Rhode Island has some growth. Michigan is on its 8th straight year of population growth. Weather hasn't changed-that's not why people are leaving. And International immigration up far north liek that has never been about Mexico.

The top states with net domestic migration loss were California (-203,414), New York (-180,649), Illinois (-104,986), New Jersey (-48,946), Massachusetts (-30,274) and Louisiana (-26,045). It isnt all about cold. Someone in the Boston thread said it more concisely:

"NY, CA, MA, and NJ are all in a similar predicament.. Exceedingly high cost of living, stagnant wages, and a growing delta between upper and lower class (or just total gentrification)."


Thee are very very serious issues that need to be addressed on a federal level not just be hot fodder for conversation in life and on these boards.
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Old 12-30-2019, 12:51 PM
 
Location: Green Country
2,845 posts, read 2,755,800 times
Reputation: 4701
Quote:
Originally Posted by As Above So Below... View Post
Im not concerned about the slower number of immigrants coming in because there is a logical explanation for it. Our biggest contributor of immigrants has always been Mexico but things are going much better there right now economically. There hasnt been as big a need to come here. Its not a political issue either since the decline in Mexican immigration started around 2012.
International immigration was +1,111,283 as recently as two years ago. It's now +595,000.

The collapse is absolutely not a "2012" phenomenon.
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Old 12-30-2019, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
8,196 posts, read 5,322,117 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
no no no. Massachusetts was booming for most of the decade CT had a few years with gains. NYC was booming from 2010-2015. Philly is growing. Even Rhode Island has some growth. Michigan is on its 8th straight year of population growth. Weather hasn't changed-that's not why people are leaving. And International immigration up far north liek that has never been about Mexico.

The top states with net domestic migration loss were California (-203,414), New York (-180,649), Illinois (-104,986), New Jersey (-48,946), Massachusetts (-30,274) and Louisiana (-26,045). It isnt all about cold. Someone in the Boston thread said it more concisely:

"NY, CA, MA, and NJ are all in a similar predicament.. Exceedingly high cost of living, stagnant wages, and a growing delta between upper and lower class (or just total gentrification)."


Thee are very very serious issues that need to be addressed on a federal level not just be hot fodder for conversation in life and on these boards.
I do believe weather is a big issue, just not the only issue. For California, its more about the high taxes and COL. For Louisiana, the economy is awful and there arent many opportunities. For the Northeast and the Midwest, weather is a big reason. Its not the only reason of course, but its one of them.

I think this article sums it up nicely:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-...ast-2018-10-20
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Old 12-30-2019, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Forest bathing
3,184 posts, read 2,445,291 times
Reputation: 7222
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Why is this a disaster? Isn't ~330 million people enough? The disaster is the lack of 21st century job skills among the bottom 50%. The smart/educated/motivated ones move to the high cost of living regions with the economic opportunities. The disaster is the states and counties where most of those people have fled.
I agree. More people equals more traffic, loss of habitat and wild places, stress on infrastructure and ecosystems, etc. And, as GeoffD said, the disaster is that so many citizens lack training and education to compete in the 21st century. Why do we need more immigration? We especially do not need those who are unskilled, illiterate, uneducated. If those who bemoan the decrease in immigration want more people then look to India and China to see our future.
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Old 12-30-2019, 12:57 PM
 
4,134 posts, read 2,769,326 times
Reputation: 5475
Weather is obviously a part of the issue. I mean Florida basically sold itself as NY’s sunny retirement home and has been riding the wave for a century. Obviously a bit more complicated, but not much.
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Old 12-30-2019, 01:00 PM
 
13,942 posts, read 14,829,606 times
Reputation: 10383
Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
no no no. Massachusetts was booming for most of the decade CT had a few years with gains. NYC was booming from 2010-2015. Philly is growing. Even Rhode Island has some growth. Michigan is on its 8th straight year of population growth. Weather hasn't changed-that's not why people are leaving. And International immigration up far north liek that has never been about Mexico.

The top states with net domestic migration loss were California (-203,414), New York (-180,649), Illinois (-104,986), New Jersey (-48,946), Massachusetts (-30,274) and Louisiana (-26,045). It isnt all about cold. Someone in the Boston thread said it more concisely:

"NY, CA, MA, and NJ are all in a similar predicament.. Exceedingly high cost of living, stagnant wages, and a growing delta between upper and lower class (or just total gentrification)."


Thee are very very serious issues that need to be addressed on a federal level not just be hot fodder for conversation in life and on these boards.
It’s because international migration was halved.
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