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Old 03-29-2020, 12:17 PM
 
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Old 03-29-2020, 01:14 PM
 
2,029 posts, read 2,335,130 times
Reputation: 4702
Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle19125 View Post
Florida has over 4,000 confirmed cases and 55 deaths which is nearly as much as Washington in terms of cases, and a governor playing politics which will keep those numbers in the top tier.

I agree with you 100%. We were there two weeks ago, and while the northern states were working on plans, Florida's beaches were full, Ft. Meyers and Naples restaurants were packed with the streets full of people, and to date there is no lock down. It is just a matter of time (although sincerely I hope not) that that lack of care manifests itself into something far worse.
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Old 03-29-2020, 01:22 PM
 
Location: Miami (prev. NY, Atlanta, SF, OC and San Diego)
7,370 posts, read 6,422,913 times
Reputation: 6589
OMG!...you are aware Florida has nearly 3x the population of Washington (21.9M to 7.8M last time I checked). Not sure I understand your logic—much larger states should have much fewer cases??...and yet 3x smaller Washington has more than 3x as many deaths than FL, as of today (189 to 56).

If you are going to make a political statement (and Im not a fan of DeSantis) the least you could do is make a mathematically coherent one. Fortunately, some FL City and County officials have adopted aggressive measures and, hopefully, visitors from other heavily impacted States stay in their home state.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle19125 View Post
Florida has over 4,000 confirmed cases and 55 deaths which is nearly as much as Washington in terms of cases, and a governor playing politics which will keep those numbers in the top tier.

Last edited by elchevere; 03-29-2020 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 03-29-2020, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Chicago area
18,748 posts, read 11,711,598 times
Reputation: 64054
Look, no state will be spared. This virus started with one person and grew into a global pandemic. There will be waves of it in each state, and some will peak at different times. If you have a seed population, you have a pending disaster if you do not treat it aggressively. Tested cases are different from the cope of how wide spread this is. In order to track it properly and have 100% accurate scope of how bad this is, every one living in America would have to be tested. Impossible right? Yes. What we have are models and predictions at this point. Some will be right and some will be wrong. The bottom line is that this is serious and we have to treat everyone like they are infected at this point. Unfortunately the idiot factor is still alive and well in this country and too many tribal people are making this a political issue. Stay home. Stay safe. This will impact every state. Right now Chicago is just a couple of weeks behind New York. Can we turn this around? Perhaps, but not without every ones cooperation.
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Old 03-29-2020, 01:46 PM
 
8,753 posts, read 6,674,180 times
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The states that haven't locked things down are going to have steep increases. We've already seen numerous added hotspots in the past week. In two weeks, many of those will be on steep death curves because of today's inaction.
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Old 03-29-2020, 02:04 PM
 
Location: NY
15,824 posts, read 6,639,505 times
Reputation: 11948
The following is only my opinion:

As a New Yorker I have no objection to being locked down for
a few weeks as long as services such as food, mail, etc...are not impeded.
Governor Cuomo claimed it would be an Act of War and threatened to sue
Rhode Island if New Yorkers driving to the state are pulled over.
I think for the better of the country New York should be quarantined.
I was shopping at the supermarket today. Hoody,Goggles,mask and gloves.
Workers wore masks as well ( do not know if they were of the particulate kind )
while most shoppers were not abiding by the 6 foot social distancing rule and
less than a dozen shoppers including my self wearing any protection at all.

It is going to get worse before it gets better.
One can only hope for a week of very hot... hot .....weather...........
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:22 PM
 
26,826 posts, read 43,300,897 times
Reputation: 31449
Quote:
Originally Posted by elchevere View Post
OMG!...you are aware Florida has nearly 3x the population of Washington (21.9M to 7.8M last time I checked). Not sure I understand your logic—much larger states should have much fewer cases??...and yet 3x smaller Washington has more than 3x as many deaths than FL, as of today (189 to 56).

If you are going to make a political statement (and Im not a fan of DeSantis) the least you could do is make a mathematically coherent one. Fortunately, some FL City and County officials have adopted aggressive measures and, hopefully, visitors from other heavily impacted States stay in their home state.
Yes I'm aware, I live in Florida. It has nothing to do with size of population by/large, rather density as seen in states like Washington where Seattle has been hard hit or in Louisiana with New Orleans, or even Georgia where the numbers in/around Atlanta are pushing the state up to the top tier of cases. DeSantis is the governor and as such the state's leader. Rather than act as another Trump lap dog he took an oath to represent the best interests of Florida's citizens and waiting to enact any protective measures until well after private interests such as Disney, Universal and Sea World took steps to minimize the transmission of the disease is not taking political pot shots.....but illustrating his sheer negligence.
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:50 PM
 
Location: Miami (prev. NY, Atlanta, SF, OC and San Diego)
7,370 posts, read 6,422,913 times
Reputation: 6589
Ok, I’m not sure what part of FL you live in but I have been pleased with the responsiveness of Miami Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, who presides over the most densely populated area of the state. Many of the morons on the beach, which resulted in more recent tighter sanctions, were spring breakers from outside the state. There was also the idiot who had just been tested following symptoms yet got on a plane from NY to Palm Beach. We shall see what happens over the next few weeks. There is an evening curfew in place, fewer tourists—including cruise passengers—are visiting, and many are working from home (vehicle and pedestrian traffic in Brickell, the financial center of the city, is maybe 1/10th of normal)....as for WA, Seattle (downtown) is dense and there is a much larger Asian population there with more business ties and travel to and from that area that was a likely contributing factor to their situation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by animalcrazy View Post
Look, no state will be spared. This virus started with one person and grew into a global pandemic. There will be waves of it in each state, and some will peak at different times. If you have a seed population, you have a pending disaster if you do not treat it aggressively. Tested cases are different from the cope of how wide spread this is. In order to track it properly and have 100% accurate scope of how bad this is, every one living are in America would have to be tested. Impossible right? Yes. What we have are models and predictions at this point. Some will be right and some will be wrong. The bottom line is that this is serious and we have to treat everyone like they are infected at this point. Unfortunately the idiot factor is still alive and well in this country and too many tribal people are making this a political issue. Stay home. Stay safe. This will impact every state. Right now Chicago is just a couple of weeks behind New York. Can we turn this around? Perhaps, but not without every ones cooperation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle19125 View Post
Yes I'm aware, I live in Florida. It has nothing to do with size of population by/large, rather density as seen in states like Washington where Seattle has been hard hit or in Louisiana with New Orleans, or even Georgia where the numbers in/around Atlanta are pushing the state up to the top tier of cases. DeSantis is the governor and as such the state's leader. Rather than act as another Trump lap dog he took an oath to represent the best interests of Florida's citizens and waiting to enact any protective measures until well after private interests such as Disney, Universal and Sea World took steps to minimize the transmission of the disease is not taking political pot shots.....but illustrating his sheer negligence.

Last edited by elchevere; 03-29-2020 at 04:06 PM..
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:22 PM
 
8,256 posts, read 17,250,408 times
Reputation: 6220
Top 10 Highest Testing per Capita:
1. NY
2. WA
3. LA
4. NM
5. MA
6. VT
7. HI
8. NH
9. ND
10. ME

Top 10 with Most Positive Cases:
1. NY
2. NJ
3. CA
4. MI
5. MA
6. IL
7. WA
8. FL
9. LA
10. PA

If you notice, the only states on both list are NY, WA, LA, and MA. Therefore, I think the scariest thing is that many states on the second list are not on the first list. So they may actually end up far worse than even NY. But, it's not a NY problem if you notice. NY has the highest numbers, but is also testing at a much higher rate than the US average, and even significantly higher than WA's testing rate at second place.
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Old 03-29-2020, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
8,196 posts, read 5,317,893 times
Reputation: 12026
I have the answer in full detail.

Based on this data I would identify 7 legitimate hotspots as of now:
1) NYC and suburbs
2) New Orleans and suburbs
3) Albany, GA
4) Detroit and suburbs
5) Boston and suburbs
6) Ski resort areas of Colorado and Utah
7) Seattle and suburbs

I do not consider South Florida and especially not California as hotspots per capita. The data shows this. Chicago, Philadelphia, and Nashville seem to be tettering for now.

I wanted to dive into the data of where the virus is most blooming. Below are all counties that as of now have more than 1,000 reported total cases:

New York, NY: 30,766
Westchester, NY: 7,874
Nassau, NY: 5,537
Suffolk, NY: 4,138
Cook, IL: 2,613
Wayne, MI: 2,316
King, WA: 2,079
Rockland, NY: 1,986
Bergen, NJ: 1,838
Los Angeles, CA: 1,804
Orleans, LA: 1,298
Miami-Dade, FL: 1,121
Orange, NY: 1,101
Essex, NJ: 1,086
Oakland, MI: 1,018

This list will no doubt grow, so Ill try and keep track of it day by day.

Another metric that isnt looked at often enough is testing. Below are the number of tests preformed by state relative to the number of positives given. To me, this is the most shocking metric. The data varies WILDLY from state to state. The word "total" represents the number of tests, the word "positives" represents the number of people who tested positive for Novel Coronavirus from those tests, and the word "Odds" is the percentage of people who test positive out of the total number of tests given. Its that last number that's crazy to me on a state by state level. I listed all with over 2,000 positive cases:

New York:
Total - 155,934
Positives - 52,318
Odds - 34%

New Jersey:
Total - 30,510
Positives - 11,214
Odds - 37%

California:
Total - 89,592
Positives - 4,643
Odds - 5%

Massachusetts:
Total - 35,049
Positives - 4,257
Odds - 12%

Florida:
Total - 39,129
Positives - 3,763
Odds - 9%

Washington:
Total - 52,738
Positives - 3,723
Odds - 7%

Michigan:
Total - 12,766
Positives - 3,657
Odds - 29%

Illinois:
Total - 25,491
Positives - 3,491
Odds - 14%

Louisiana:
Total - 25,161
Positives - 3,315
Odds - 13%

Pennsylvania:
Total - 28,005
Positives - 2,571
Odds - 9%

Georgia:
Total - 11,051
Positives - 2,366
Odds - 21%

Texas:
Total - 25,260
Positives - 2,052
Odds - 7%

Per Capita, here is where the counties above (plus some other hot spots) rank:

By county, percentage of total population who has tested positive for Novel Coronavirus. Ive included all major counties and some smaller ones where the percentage is relatively high:

The ones that have a per capita rate of over .001% could be considered hot spots IMO:

Westchester, NY: .008%
Rockland, NY: .005%
Nassau, NY: .004%
Orleans, LA: .003%
Dougherty, GA: .003%
Suffolk, NY: .003%
Orange, NY: .003%
New York, NY: .003%
Eagle, CO: .003%
Union, NJ: .003%
Summit, UT: .003%
Jefferson, LA: .002%
Passaic, NJ: .002%
Ocean, NJ: .002%
Hudson, NJ: .002%
Bergen, NJ: .002%
Somerset, NJ: .001%
Monmouth, NJ: .001%
James City, VA: .001%
Snohomish, WA: .001%
Fairfield, CT: .001%
Middlesex, NJ: .001%
Wayne, MI: .001%
Essex, NJ: .001%
Suffolk, MA: .001%
Bartow, GA: .001%
Tippah, MS: .001%

King, WA: .0009%
Ascension, LA: .0009%
Dutchess, NY: .0009%

Caddo, LA: .0008%
Chittenden, VT: .0008%
Oakland, MI: .0008%

Marion, IN: .0007%

Denver, CO: .0006%
Essex, MA: .0006%
Norfolk, MA: .0006%
Montgomery, PA: .0006%
Davidson, TN: .0006%
Milwaukee, WI: .0006%
Macomb, MI: .0006%
Gallatan, MT: .0006%

Cumberland, ME: .0005%
St. Tammany, LA: .0005%
Middlesex, MA: .0005%
Delaware, PA: .0005%
Cook, IL: .0005%
Washentaw, MI: .0005%
Sumner, TN: .0005%
Williamson, TN: .0005%
District of Columbia: .0005%
Philadelphia, PA: .0005%

Fulton, GA: .0004%
Worchester, MA: .0004%
Johnson, IA: .0004%
Miami-Dade, FL: .0004%
Broward, FL: .0004%
Shelby, AL: .0004%
Bucks, PA: .0004%
DeSoto, MS: .0004%
Erie, NY: .0004%
Dekalb, GA: .0004%
Lake, IL: .0004%

Hinds, MS: .0003%
Fairfax, VA: .0003%
Cuyahoga, OH: .0003%
Mecklenburg, NC: .0003%
Shelby, TN: .0003%
Washington, MS: .0003%
Santa Clara, CA: .0003%
Clark, NV: .0003%
East Baton Rouge, LA: .0003%
Jefferson, AL: .0003%
Arapaho, CO: .0003%
Hartford, CT: .0003%
New Haven, CT: .0003%
Wyandotte, KS: .0003%
Montgomery, MD: .0003%
St. Louis: .0003%
Rockingham, NH: .0003%
Hillsborough, NH: .0003%
Prince George's, MD: .0003%
Marion, OR: .0003%
Washington, OR: .0003%

Franklin, OH: .0002%
Dupage, IL: .0002%
Cobb, GA: .0002%
Baltimore, MD: .0002%
Los Angeles, CA: .0002%
Brazoria, TX: .0002%
Brazos, TX: .0002%
Fayette, KY: .0002%
Kansas City, MO: .0002%
Palm Beach, FL: .0002%
Orange, FL: .0002%
Salt Lake, UT: .0002%
Hillsborough, FL: .0002%
Dallas, TX: .0002%
Travis, TX: .0002%
Alameda, CA: .0002%
Allegheny, PA: .0002%
Lake, IN: .0002%
Denton, TX: .0002%

Fort Bend, TX: .0001%
McClennan, TX: .0001%
Smith, TX: .0001%
Multnomah, OR: .0001%
Oklahoma, OH: .0001%
Bernalilo, NM: .0001%
Hennepin, MN: .0001%
Douglas, NE: .0001%
Jefferson, KY: .0001%
Pima, AZ: .0001%
Collin, TX: .0001%
San Diego, CA: .0001%
Orange, CA: .0001%
Maricopa, AZ: .0001%

Bexar, TX: .00007%
Riverside, CA: .00007%
Sedgwick, KS: .00006%
Tarrant, TX: .00006%
Harris, TX: .00005%
San Bernadino, CA: .00003%
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