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What's with the Alabama homerism? It's a poor redneck state with crumbling cities and un-educated rurals who elect very reactionary and backwards politicians.
And unlike Florida, it has a very tiny coastline. Baldwin County and Huntsville alone can't prop up that state. It has too many problems.
I actually think Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi will all enter absolute decline, as the educated and young flee to Texas, Georgia and Tennessee.
California will also enter decline, as Californication sweeps the mountain west (Idaho, Montana, Utah).
Washington and New York slow down a lot, and Pennsylvania's affordability becomes a boon.
The Midwest stays stagnant on net, with each state continuing on its current trajectory.
If the Dems take a trifecta and we go back to 1-1.2 million immigrants a year, the Midwest, California and Texas will do far better than projected.
I agree with all of this. AR LA and MS will definitely see a decline. AL can maybe be saved by those looking to move to Atlanta considering other options. Idk. But yes, for those living in AL already, TN and GA are too close are much better off. I do think as GA turns more purple and could even be competitive for Dems, you'll see more growth there. I think one of the main hinderances for many people in moving anywhere in the South is the regressive politics. As GA gets bluer, I think it will continue to see massive growth and end up attracting even more people.
Those who are less worried about politics in the South will likely end up more in SC.
I also see California's growth slowing. As more work goes remote, I highly doubt all the tech employees will remains in the Bay. The IE's housing market is going to collapse. I don't think SD has the economy to attract enough people after coronavirus. I think like with the South, a lot of what held people back from moving to other western states was politics. A lot of people move to CA for the nice weather + progressive politics. If you think about it, what over state provides no cold/snow + progressive politics? Reno always sees an influx from the Bay. LV and Phoenix already see an influx from SoCal. Denver already gets a lot from SoCal. I think SLC picks up some of that. Boise gets some from the Bay. Those states will increase as CA decreases due to COL and remote working opportunities.
I think WA will slow down since, like the Bay, all the tech people don't have to live in Seattle now. And I think some of them will be looking at Boise and other Mountain West cities.
The influx of New Yorkers into Philly has been a staple of demographics for a long time now. I think with people not needing to be in NYC, yet wanting an urban lifestyle still, Philly will pick up even more of those people. I could see NJ getting a slight uptick from people leaving NYC who would normally stay there forever, but now not needing to be right in the city, but wanting the culture nearby still. But that's iff as they could also just end up going up the Hudson Valley. But I think the rail towns and shore towns of NJ could attract some New Yorkers moving out. If Trump wins in November, NY will decrease as people leave the city. If Biden wins in November, I think it can still grow due to immigration.
On a side note, I think this is a good turning point for NYC actually. I don't think the massive exodus away from urban living will be long-term. But I think it could keep the ultra wealthy from flooding the city as much as they were. I think it will end with a lot of people who came here to just say they live in NYC to go home and not come back and that leaves the city for those of us who genuinely love every aspect of it, especially the grit, not just the bougie. The disastrous economic effect in China could keep some of the foreign buyers from buying as much luxury housing, so a little game of supply and demand could result. A lot of the money is from Russia too, but their economy is likely collapsing with nobody buying oil. Maybe this will let NYC return to a city of immigrants, artists, creatives, minorities, gays, etc. like it was when it was cooler. Less Starbucks and Apple Stores. More gritty and dirty nightlife with less red velvet ropes and $50 sexist covers to get in. Less people trying to make the city an urban version of their Midwest city and sucking the culture out of it.
I think TX growth depends on how oil recovers, how Mexican immigration plays out, and how tech reorganizes itself. And if it avoids any massive hurricanes.
FL depends on climate change and hurricanes mostly. But also on whether or not tourism comes back strong enough.
I think in general, the Midwest could do well. I think its smaller urban cities with lower COL will be a good middle ground for people no longer as interested in ultra urban lifestyles, yet unwilling to move to the south, but are able to work remotely. Especially as climate change progresses, the extreme cold of the Midwest won't be as bad probably.
Geez, you all are so concerned about politics and think it's a static feature that can never be changed. California was just as exploitative and racist as the South was in the 1800s and look what happened in the 1900s. Things change... Politics is not the #1 factor on everybody's mind when they decide where to live and you all mistakenly think that all young people are in love with the ultra far left.
Cincinnati's one of my favorite cities but I don't see it. Ohio is unique as the ONLY state whose entire net population growth this decade can be boiled down to one county: Franklin.
In other words, Franklin County is the only reason Ohio has grown this decade. Take that out of the equation and Ohio is a declining state.
Yes, some people may move to smaller cities if remote work becomes standard. But that will be dwarfed by natural change, since Ohio is both older and attracts less immigrants [even if Cleveland has done well with a few immigrant groups].
I think if the Democrats win, they should allow in location-contingent immigration. Essentially "you can move to the U.S., but we'll only provide help integrating [housing, food, transport] if you settle in one of these Rust Belt cities: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis". And offer 500,000 of those slots to those who wouldn't qualify in the initial one million.
Warren and Butler Counties between Cincy and Dayton are thriving...
If this crisis increases demand for semi-rural living..which many are predicting...no state has such plentiful options as Ohio...it's rural areas were never fully abandoned. Living on 3-10 acres...within a quick drive of a sizable town/city...is possible in most every corner of Ohio at very reasonable prices.
Geez, you all are so concerned about politics and think it's a static feature that can never be changed. California was just as exploitative and racist as the South was in the 1800s and look what happened in the 1900s. Things change... Politics is not the #1 factor on everybody's mind when they decide where to live and you all mistakenly think that all young people are in love with the ultra far left.
In a polarized environment such as 2020, politics are pretty seriously considered before moving somewhere. I know plenty of people on both sides of the aisle who would refuse to move to a certain state based on its politics.
Those on the right generally just consider whether or not they can open carry their weapon and whether or not they can freely keep others from living their own life. I.e. Your marriage is not affected by two men being able to get the same government benefits. A woman's choice to abort her fetus does not affect your relationship with God or your own children. You don't have to worry about being evicted, fired, assaulted, discriminated against, etc. just for the way you were born. I'm not saying "you" as in you particularly. Just the general concept.
Meanwhile, those of us on the left have things to consider like "in what states can I be fired for the way that I was born?" In what states can I be evicted for the way I was born? In what states am I forced to carry a fetus to term if I'm brutally raped? In what states can someone shoot my black child and more easily get away with it (note I say more easily because this happens in every state)? What states don't consider it a hate crime for someone to assault me for the way that I was born? What states prioritize money over the health and safety of its own residents? What states actively seek to strip me of my right to vote? What states don't believe that women should be paid equally for equal work? What states attempt to promote one religion above all others? What states are more welcoming to immigrants? What states care about improving the environment and combating climate change? What states care about funding public transit?
That's where politics comes into play. My rights as an individual are much more strongly protected in blue states. There's a reason the LGBT population congregates heavily in a select few states. And in the red states, they tend to congregate in very specific cities that either have local ordinances protecting them, or at least some type of accepting atmosphere. I know people from CA who are becoming more comfortable with the idea of moving to AZ or NV for the lower COL now that they're becoming bluer. I know someone who planned on moving from a blue state to a red state, but then discovered that the red state's decision to not expand Medicaid/Medicare coverage would result in him paying extremely high out of pocket costs for his life saving medicine. So that plan was canceled. I myself moved from a blue state to a red state and I felt like an outsider the entire time even with other progressive people around me because I never truly felt as safe in my personal freedoms. I moved out to another blue state as soon as possible and it's comforting knowing I have more rights and freedoms again.
In a polarized environment such as 2020, politics are pretty seriously considered before moving somewhere. I know plenty of people on both sides of the aisle who would refuse to move to a certain state based on its politics.
Those on the right generally just consider whether or not they can open carry their weapon and whether or not they can freely keep others from living their own life. I.e. Your marriage is not affected by two men being able to get the same government benefits. A woman's choice to abort her fetus does not affect your relationship with God or your own children. You don't have to worry about being evicted, fired, assaulted, discriminated against, etc. just for the way you were born.
Oklahoma is a good example of just how highly undesirable a state can be to many outsiders to move to. Oklahoma Republican legislators are currently working on a bill to make it harder to get enough signatures for petitions to vote on state questions to change the law. This, even though Oklahoma already has one of the most difficult requirements for a successful petition in the country. It's how Republicans are pushing back against citizens getting enough signatures to successfully vote on legalizing medical marijuana as well as getting enough signatures for a vote for more Medicaid in June. Rural Oklahoma legislators do a lot in trying to hold Oklahoma back from the rest of the more advanced nation. Over the years they have too often succeeded.
Mississippi will continue to grow at it's own pace unless more industries set up shop here.
The delta would need it the most and be heavily challenging as well. I could see auto plants, medical centers, & small IT firms helping the local populace.
Jackson should be improving their infrastructure & dilapidated areas more while investing in the downtown district. Attracting more diverse white collar & blue collar professions, improving marketability, & retaining some college graduates. Overall still a grind with soul though.
The Coast is heading in a good direction generally & Hattiesburg is alright just needs more economic development.
To the people predicting Californias downfall. Well, hate to break it to you, but California will be doing everything it can to prevent that. It's not going out without a fight.
About climate change, yes, we will definitely feel the effects this decade, but realize that America and world will be taking it more serious soon. People are waking up and politicians are starting to take note. I think we will see progress as soon as that pumpkin oaf finally leaves the Whitehouse.
Hoping some advanced carbon sucking tech gets unleashed before it gets bad.
That's where politics comes into play. My rights as an individual are much more strongly protected in blue states. There's a reason the LGBT population congregates heavily in a select few states. And in the red states, they tend to congregate in very specific cities that either have local ordinances protecting them, or at least some type of accepting atmosphere. I know people from CA who are becoming more comfortable with the idea of moving to AZ or NV for the lower COL now that they're becoming bluer. I know someone who planned on moving from a blue state to a red state, but then discovered that the red state's decision to not expand Medicaid/Medicare coverage would result in him paying extremely high out of pocket costs for his life saving medicine. So that plan was canceled. I myself moved from a blue state to a red state and I felt like an outsider the entire time even with other progressive people around me because I never truly felt as safe in my personal freedoms. I moved out to another blue state as soon as possible and it's comforting knowing I have more rights and freedoms again.
As a gay person I agree, the politics of where you live matters a lot. It’s one of the main reasons I moved from a small town in Utah to Salt Lake which has one of the highest lgbt percentages in the nation as soon as I could and have been much happier since. Although Utah might be an outlier here among red states for LGBT protections I most certainly would choose a blue state if I were to move again.
To the people predicting Californias downfall. Well, hate to break it to you, but California will be doing everything it can to prevent that. It's not going out without a fight.
About climate change, yes, we will definitely feel the effects this decade, but realize that America and world will be taking it more serious soon. People are waking up and politicians are starting to take note. I think we will see big progress once that pumpkin oaf finally leaves the Whitehouse.
Hoping some advanced carbon sucking tech gets unleashed before it gets bad.
California is often its own worst enemy. Probably the most undesirable thing about it is the COL. The legislation that would've attempted to help this at least somewhat by increasing density and therefore curing a bit of the low supply/high demand problem was defeated. The HSR has just turned into a giant debacle...or shall I say "finasco" for those who get the reference. The state is not taking high density transit reliant living seriously enough to combat its high COL, horrendous traffic, and terrible air quality.
Now a lot of that can be benefitted with a more competent federal government though also. More federal funds for public transit. More federal funds for renewable resources. Restricting air and water pollutants even more, rather than loosening the restrictions and even taking legal action against CA for implementing stricter emissions standards.
As a gay person I agree, the politics of where you live matters a lot. It’s one of the main reasons I moved from a small town in Utah to Salt Lake which has one of the highest lgbt percentages in the nation as soon as I could and have been much happier since. Although Utah might be an outlier here among red states for LGBT protections I most certainly would choose a blue state if I were to move again.
I honestly love learning about these random cities you would never expect being so progressive. I forgot how I even learned about SLC before, but I'm really happy to know that it is the way that it is. Even though Utah is red, it's nice having an oasis of acceptance. After living in KY, I was pleasantly surprised at some of the cities within KY and even WV being quite LGBT friendly. However, the problem in a lot of those situations is you can lose your human rights just by leaving the more progressive county and crossing an arbitrary line in the dirt. It's depressing honestly, but it makes for some cool local cultures at least.
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