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Thats a bit too simplistic. That may very well be a large part of the migration into Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and some of the beach destinations in the Southeast, but its nowhere near the majority of this. You wont find boomers fleeing to retire in Atlanta, Charlotte, Houston, or Dallas. Most of Arizona and Nevada's migration is going to consist of Californians more than likely.
Honestly I think the weather extends far beyond the discussion of retirement. Look at Minneapolis/St. Paul. It has all the benefits of the majors in the sunbelt (great job base, great economy, large well connected airport, good reputation, etc.), but its domestic migration is a fraction of the sunbelt majors.
Honestly, people overall just prefer warm weather or at least lack of winter. If they cant have that, they seem to like the mountain cities.
Cost of living is also another thing that extends far beyond people retiring. Its even more a consideration for people looking to raise a family. But the Midwest is every bit as cheap as the South. If people simply wanted low COL, you dont have to move South. Hell, if someone from Boston wants low COL, there are numerous options in New England.
People only live in Boston because of the jobs really if you’re not in the immediate Boston area New England is kind of a pit for most middle class folks and obviously in a prolonged state of decline. It’s good for certain Socioeconomic groups but not most. You’ll get a low COL with a POS old house and crazy winters. In other words it’s low COL for a reason..whereas low COL in Phoenix seems like a steal...
The only lifestyle attraction that isn’t directly tied to employment in New England is sorta kinda Providence and even that is totally minimal because of weather, road quality, weak economy, weak public schools, tons of immigrants (As you noted) and old housing. Southern New Hampshire attracts people from Boston who would otherwise move to the sunbelt because it’s heavily suburban, American to the point of homogeneity , and low taxes.
With regard to American born residents, the data just seems to suggest they prefer suburban lifestyles as opposed to urban ones. Typically the more urban a place is, the higher the COL but there are exceptions like Chicago. That exception (Chicago) is suffering some of the worst population bleed. You have places like LA and the Bay Area which are mostly suburban in set up, but then they become cost prohibitive.
If you become priced out of your city or want the suburban lifestyle, that would be good motivation to move South because most people do prefer warmer weather to colder weather. For immigrants its different because, regardless of city, you want to go where there is an established community of your ethnicity. But would they prefer suburbia if they could have it? My honest thought is that yes they would. Thats what is sold to them as the American dream in their home counties. The house with the front and back yard and the garage. If you look at immigrants in most cities in the US including LA, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami, and the Bay Area, most of them do not live in the urban walkable areas. They live in suburb like neighborhoods in the city or in suburbs.
Its an interesting subject and its all more complex than what we can outline, but thats still a good theory!
Immigrants in the sunbelt are ‘newer’ and probably a bit more empowered than where I’m from- I consider my region MA-CT-RI-NY-NJ for practical reasons. It’s clear when immigrants can live in the suburbs they do-we see that all over California Texas and Florida.
Even in the northeast they move into suburbs..they leave New Haven for West Haven Hamden and Meriden..they leave Lawrence for Haverhill Methuen and North Andover..they leave Providence for Pawtucket And Cranston..they leave NYC for Poughkeepsie, Yonkers, White Plains..they leave Newark for Maplewood, Plainfield, Orange....it’s just harder to make those moves in the northeast for a variety of reasons
LA and SF are pretty damn urban IMO, I see what you mean because SFHs and small lawn but naw I’d say they’re heavily urban due to density.
What can we infer from the numbers in the original post?
1) Very few metro areas are well rounded in number of domestic and international residents they receive. There seems to be a bias one way or the other. Metro areas that are bleeding domestic residents are receiving large numbers of international residents and metro areas receiving large numbers of domestic born residents are not really on the radar for international residents. There are some exceptions to this of course.
2) The number of metro areas that receive significant international immigration but smaller numbers of domestic residents was much smaller than I anticipated. I was also surprised at the few number of immigrant/migrant balanced metro areas.
3) I think a fair assumption is that Americans dont like to be in places where there are large number of international residents.
4) Domestic migrants seem to favor one or more of the following things: 1) few numbers of international immigrants, 2) warm weather destinations, 3) mountain destinations, 4) affordability, 5) suburban lifestyle. Most of the destinations that have the highest number of domestic migrants have at least four of the five things mentioned above.
5) The South and Mountain West/Southwest seem to be the only regions in the US booming with domestic migrants.
6) Cities international immigrants favor have remained steady over the last 10 years with change only in how many not which cities. LA has lost prominence and Boston, Seattle, and Houston have gained on it, but other than that there is little change. My guess is that affordability is playing a larger role with international immigrants as well, albeit to a lesser degree. Community size for specific ethnicity is still probably the biggest driver there.
Bottom line: affordability, warm or mountain (or both) climates, economy, access to suburban lifestyle, and the need to be in communities that are mostly American seem to be the drivers for domestic migration.
Please let me know if you guys have any thoughts you wish to contribute!
People want to be around people who they have things in common with. Remember, America for many generations was made up of ethnic European neighborhoods, and it was said that if a German moved into an Irish neighborhood, all hell would break loose. Times have changed obviously, probably mostly due to more globalization, so I think shared values, the same manners and other similarities keep people together.
For example: While most of CA has a very comfortable climate and a beautiful natural setting, the calculus has changed for many with the spike in COL, homelessness, and other QOL concerns. And remote work has opened up new options. For many (though a relative small percentage o the population) it's no longer worth staying.
We moved from the Monterey Bay area to Boise right as the pandemic was hitting. Why? Higher quality of life that better matches our lifestyle for about 1/3 the cost. We intentionally moved from a smaller suburban area to an inner ring in larger urban setting. Our house is near hundreds of miles of trails in the foothills while still being ~1 mile from a vibrant clean downtown. I can bike to the river to fly fish, mountain biking without having to drive to a trail head, be on the snow skiing in about 30 minutes, and have incredible dining and shopping within walking distance. And we're surrounded by vast expanses of wilderness for backpacking, hunting, fishing, camping, etc. We drive way less, which for us is a huge plus as we'd much rather bike and walk. The people are less stressed and very nice. Very low crime rate. Like everywhere we have homeless, yet in 3+ years here I've never seen an encampment or tent around town. Nothing like this existed near our previous location, and anything remotely similar was prohibitively expensive. It just made a ton of sense for us to move.
Of course, not everyone values the same things. Some what a more suburban lifestyle. Others want more beach less mountains. Some want even more dense and urban. So people migrate to places that fit their desires.
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