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Doug Jones is gone after November. He only won because he was running against a pervert nut job, but he doesn't have that advantage this time.
He’s running against an inexperienced politician that half the state hates because he coached at Auburn. Many Alabama fans will not vote for him for that fact alone (they might not vote for Jones either).
Some of this depends on the coming political realignments post-Trumpism. If the Democratic Party lurches more toward the deeply progressive or even Democratic Socialist wing, and the Republican Party becomes more of a Center Right party, then I think some of the current trends may reverse. I can certainly see a lot of Dallas and Houston and Atlanta suburbanites who despise Trump settling in more comfortably with a Center Right party.
The Republican Party won't become a center-right party again, however, unless Trumpism is so thoroughly discredited by the electorate that the GOP establishment is electorally massacred in November. If the only Senate casualties are Maine (Collins), Colorado (Gardner), Arizona (McSally) and North Carolina (Tillis), I don't see any changes for the GOP.
They'd have to lose Kansas (Kobach?), Montana (Daines), Iowa (Ernst), Alaska (Sullivan), Georgia x2 (Loeffler/Perdue), Texas (Cornyn) or some dark horse races like South Carolina (Graham) or Kentucky (McConnell) for there to be a "oh ****, we need to change" moment.
At the moment the GOP could lose the Senate, but why would they go scorched earth internally if they still have a 49 Senate caucus in November, a 3% electoral college advantage, strong state legislative gerrymanders, and big judiciary holds?
The only potential catalyst I see in the 2020s is some scenario where Texas votes Dem in 2020 by a smidge, then doesn't revert back by 2024 (giving 41 EVs to the Dems) or 2028 (with continued Dem trends throughout). In that scenario, the GOP would have to adapt by 2030, since we'll have entered the Seventh Party System. At this point, however, Texas is still 10 points to the right of the nation. So it only becomes competitive for Dems when they're already well over 270 electoral votes elsewhere and Texas is a "cherry on top" state. If it goes to 8 points right in 2020, 6 points right in 2024, 4 points right in 2028, those would be red flags, however, since we'd have a bellwether by 2036.
A lot of those leaving California is for the politics....not the weather.
Some do but definitely not the majority. The majority left California because of cost of living and job opportunities. Im one of those.
Ive seen the polls that say "native Texans are more lively to vote blue than Californian transplants." I frankly dont buy that at all. If that were the case, Collin County would not be trending blue nearly as fast as it is considering it is ground zero for Californian migration to Texas even more so than anywhere in Austin.
Another thing to consider is how Trump changes the GOP for the long term. There are conservatives and there are populists. Trump is a populist. Greg Abbott is a conservative. Texas may be conservative over all but it is not populist.
The Republican Party won't become a center-right party again, however, unless Trumpism is so thoroughly discredited by the electorate that the GOP establishment is electorally massacred in November. If the only Senate casualties are Maine (Collins), Colorado (Gardner), Arizona (McSally) and North Carolina (Tillis), I don't see any changes for the GOP.
They'd have to lose Kansas (Kobach?), Montana (Daines), Iowa (Ernst), Alaska (Sullivan), Georgia x2 (Loeffler/Perdue), Texas (Cornyn) or some dark horse races like South Carolina (Graham) or Kentucky (McConnell) for there to be a "oh ****, we need to change" moment.
At the moment the GOP could lose the Senate, but why would they go scorched earth internally if they still have a 49 Senate caucus in November, a 3% electoral college advantage, strong state legislative gerrymanders, and big judiciary holds?
The only potential catalyst I see in the 2020s is some scenario where Texas votes Dem in 2020 by a smidge, then doesn't revert back by 2024 (giving 41 EVs to the Dems) or 2028 (with continued Dem trends throughout). In that scenario, the GOP would have to adapt by 2030, since we'll have entered the Seventh Party System. At this point, however, Texas is still 10 points to the right of the nation. So it only becomes competitive for Dems when they're already well over 270 electoral votes elsewhere and Texas is a "cherry on top" state. If it goes to 8 points right in 2020, 6 points right in 2024, 4 points right in 2028, those would be red flags, however, since we'd have a bellwether by 2036.
I agree.
The party lurches right each cycle.
In the 90s the party had a good bit of center right senators.
With each lurch the party makes it harder for these people to survive politically.
Collins and Olympia Snowe were celebrated in the 90s for their centrist votes.
Now the GOP has left centrist senators struggling to survive.
The Democrats seen to be better at realizing that is they want a majority they have to give some slack so that the senators are representative of their state. Joe Manchin in WV and Doug Jones of Alabama are good examples. Collins on the otherhand has been between a rock and a hard place. She and Snowe were very influencial especially in terms of women rights. But recently she has faced the decision of voting with her base in mind and face a primary threat or side with the hard right views of her party and face a tough reelection.
I think losing people like Collins leave the party with pure conservatives and no reason to even venture to the center.
I think Collins biggest mistake was abandoning her values. She should have taken a page out of Lisa Murkowski's book. Murkowski lost her primary in 2010, ran as a write in candidate and won reelection as a write in. Collins lost all hope when she chose to lean further right in a more centrist state. She is three last of her species being the last republican senator in the Northeast. Well, she and Toomey is and I can assure you Toomey is thankful he is not up for reelection this year. Pennsylvania has been bouncing back and forth between parties in the Senate and this year it seems to be a swing back to the left.
It will be interesting to see where Romney and Murkowsky falls after this year's election.
I agree.
The party lurches right each cycle.
In the 90s the party had a good bit of center right senators.
With each lurch the party makes it harder for these people to survive politically.
Collins and Olympia Snowe were celebrated in the 90s for their centrist votes.
Now the GOP has left centrist senators struggling to survive.
The Democrats seen to be better at realizing that is they want a majority they have to give some slack so that the senators are representative of their state. Joe Manchin in WV and Doug Jones of Alabama are good examples. Collins on the otherhand has been between a rock and a hard place. She and Snowe were very influencial especially in terms of women rights. But recently she has faced the decision of voting with her base in mind and face a primary threat or side with the hard right views of her party and face a tough reelection.
I think losing people like Collins leave the party with pure conservatives and no reason to even venture to the center.
I think Collins biggest mistake was abandoning her values. She should have taken a page out of Lisa Murkowski's book. Murkowski lost her primary in 2010, ran as a write in candidate and won reelection as a write in. Collins lost all hope when she chose to lean further right in a more centrist state. She is three last of her species being the last republican senator in the Northeast. Well, she and Toomey is and I can assure you Toomey is thankful he is not up for reelection this year. Pennsylvania has been bouncing back and forth between parties in the Senate and this year it seems to be a swing back to the left.
It will be interesting to see where Romney and Murkowsky falls after this year's election.
The GOP will probably divide between populist Tucker Carlson types and libertarian Thomas Massie types.
There is no place for Sue Collins type Republicans, neither the Dem base or GOP base wants people like that.
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