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Old 08-02-2020, 12:57 AM
 
1,798 posts, read 1,104,621 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
Organic growth in America has slowed to zero. There will be no future organic growth.
The fertility rate - that's the number of children the average woman will have - has dropped to 1.73.
It takes a rate of 2.0 to maintain an existing population.
It takes 2.1*
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Old 08-02-2020, 05:10 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh
3,296 posts, read 3,854,570 times
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Ignore the Census numbers for 2020. The pandemic is a game changer.
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Old 08-02-2020, 06:05 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
13,966 posts, read 24,011,170 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluecarebear View Post
Ignore the Census numbers for 2020. The pandemic is a game changer.
The Census will mostly reflect pre-pandemic America since its cut-off date was April 1st.
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Old 08-03-2020, 01:50 AM
 
Location: WA Desert, Seattle native
9,398 posts, read 8,740,578 times
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I think the 2020 census will be a continuation of what we saw in 2010. Large growth in Texas, Florida, Arizona. Moderate growth in Washington, Utah, Colorado. California will continue to slow, the midwest will be stagnant, and the rest of the States will maintain.

The bigger question is how will the early part of the 2020's change population. This could be significant as covid may change some population patterns. I also believe Arizona and Florida may be at the point where growth may slow, but for different reasons. The water issue in AZ, and the general FL population gains perhaps have reached a peak, but I may be wrong. I expect Texas to continue to grow, though the big cities of Houston and Dallas are somewhat in a precarious position based on oil, though both are more diversified today. Should be an interesting coming decade with a lot of changes possible.
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Old 08-03-2020, 06:21 PM
 
Location: Taos NM
5,314 posts, read 5,039,092 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluescreen73 View Post
Climate change isn't going to be kind to DFW, Austin, or San Antonio. Extreme high temps over 120 degrees will become more common if the models are accurate.
Due to global warming both diminishing temperature lows more than raising highs and effecting the higher latitudes more than lower ones, I think the pull factor of the north not being so cold will be greater than the push factor to escape southern heat.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTimidBlueBars View Post
One thing that's surprised me a little about academic projections of US metro population growth, as climate change really sets in, is that it's not so much cities in southern latitudes that people will be leaving, but specifically cities close to the coast. So people will be moving out of cities like Miami, Charleston, LA, and Houston and into cities like Dallas, Atlanta, Nashville, and Phoenix.
You know, I checked this a little while ago on Google Earth and was surprised how many coastal US cities quickly jump up to > 10 ft elevation, which is basically the worry for this century. The entire west coast is basically fine (except Stockton), it's really just basically south Florida and places like Charleston or New Orleans and NYC that are imminently screwed this century.
Quote:
Originally Posted by projectmaximus View Post
Superstar cities (you can pretty accurately guess which ones this label refers to) have for decades been expected to fall back towards the pack as technology improved and theoretically leveled the playing field for all cities (and even rural areas). But no, surprisingly superstar cities across the world keep making strides by more than their fare share. I'm not necessarily referring to population, though that generally is reflected as well, but in other areas like wealth, jobs, GDP, influence, etc. As Richard Florida says, the world is "spiky" and all the benefits keep going increasingly to the already successful cities.

I say all of this to say that the pandemic appears to be a game changer that may see superstar cities begin to fall off, and smaller cities/rural areas begin to gain some ground. However, urbanists have been predicting this for decades and it hasn't happened so I am still very skeptical if there's really going to be any kind of permanent change from all of this.



Most cities across the country will play a part in this. Small metros will become medium sized. Medium metros will become large. Outside of a small percentage of anomalies, I'd expect every MSA to see sizable growth over the next 40 years. Can these urban centers handle the growth? They will have to...cities are the only places that can! It may not be pretty, and planners are often playing catch up in the real world, but cities are the growth centers of most civilizations throughout history.
So, urbanists could have identified a trend and prophesied it before it actually took shape, or they were wrong in their prophecy. I think the former is likely, the underlying fundamentals pointed to a more even population density distribution, but there wasn't anything to shake up business as usual, until COVID. The reason I believe this is because the gap between peoples preference on where they wanted to live (more rural or small city) and where they do live due to economic necessity on job location (more urban).

To the OPs point, there's plenty of empty land in the US. It's easier to imagine small cities increasing in population to medium city size in my mind than for the large cities to turn into megalopolises, like Delhi or Tokyo.

Last edited by Phil P; 08-03-2020 at 06:33 PM..
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Old 08-03-2020, 07:35 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, CA
4,991 posts, read 5,911,780 times
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We will lose people absent immigration and immigration is very hard to predict. I could easily see the US population peaking in my lifetime. Or it could keep growing. Who knows? But I do think that the era of most cities constantly growing may be over. I think that we may start to see many more city growth rates become flat or even decrease. Including some that are currently growing fast.
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Old 08-03-2020, 07:52 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
13,966 posts, read 24,011,170 times
Reputation: 14759
Quote:
Originally Posted by pnwguy2 View Post
I think the 2020 census will be a continuation of what we saw in 2010. Large growth in Texas, Florida, Arizona. Moderate growth in Washington, Utah, Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia. California will continue to slow, the midwest will be stagnant, and the rest of the States will maintain.

The bigger question is how will the early part of the 2020's change population. This could be significant as covid may change some population patterns. I also believe Arizona and Florida may be at the point where growth may slow, but for different reasons. The water issue in AZ, and the general FL population gains perhaps have reached a peak, but I may be wrong. I expect Texas to continue to grow, though the big cities of Houston and Dallas are somewhat in a precarious position based on oil, though both are more diversified today. Should be an interesting coming decade with a lot of changes possible.
There. I fixed it. Don't sleep on the Carolinas and Georgia.
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Old 08-03-2020, 09:28 PM
 
Location: WA Desert, Seattle native
9,398 posts, read 8,740,578 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
There. I fixed it. Don't sleep on the Carolinas and Georgia.
Though I am generally not fond of the Internet term “I fixed it”, I agree those States should have been included. Being out west I sometimes am not top of mind with Atlantic States. The same way east coast is not top of mind about anything north of L.A.
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Old 08-03-2020, 10:50 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
13,966 posts, read 24,011,170 times
Reputation: 14759
Quote:
Originally Posted by pnwguy2 View Post
Though I am generally not fond of the Internet term “I fixed it”, I agree those States should have been included. Being out west I sometimes am not top of mind with Atlantic States. The same way east coast is not top of mind about anything north of L.A.
East coast guy here who was born in Oregon and raised in California. I try to stay on top of both coasts.
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Old 08-05-2020, 09:54 PM
 
Location: Unknown
569 posts, read 553,239 times
Reputation: 678
Despite the pandemic, Texas will still see large population growth.
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