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Today's numbers, not yet published, would indeed appear to b3 official numbers for county and metro populations hased on the 2020 census. I assume they are using the census numbets to adjust their 2020 estimates.
Today's numbers will be July 2020 estimates, so not based on Census 2020. They'll be just like estimates of other years.
Any guesses on the city limit pop of Chicago? I feel like it’s really hard to say, but I worry that it’s gonna crash by at least 5%. The 2010 census showed Illinois grow by about 4% and Chicago still lost 6% of its population. This time the Illinois census shows a slight decrease.
I think it’s super hard to tell because how much of that population loss had to do with a lot of public housing being demolished in the 2000s. It feels like a lot of areas are more built up now yet a lot of multi family homes have been demoed and replaced by single-family ones in wealthy areas.
The 2019 estimate showed Chicago city-proper losing about 2,000 people however, do you think that the large underestimation of Illinois’ population would actually mean that Chicago grew if the estimation of Chicago shows it being stagnant? Maps of the population change of Chicago from 2000-2010 show that basically the entire city center grew while almost the entirety of the rest of the city, aside from a couple of areas of the Northside, lost population. It seems like the city has continued/expanded on that trend, with areas that were already trendy 10 years ago like the South Loop or West Loop being a lot more built up and areas that weren’t super trendy starting to be more built up now.
It just feels so hard to tell.
Last edited by Northeasterner1970; 05-04-2021 at 03:51 PM..
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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So far things I'm seeing:
Seattle's MSA surpasses 4 million mark.
Phoenix MSA surpasses 5 million mark.
DC-Baltimore CSA did in fact surpass Chicago CSA by almost 95k (actually the year prior).
Los Angeles county (the nation's most populous) drops below 10 million.
SF MSA, SJ MSA, and SF/SJ CSA saw negative growth.
NY-LA-Chicago also seeing negative population growth by MSA. Riverside grew.
Atlanta is about 30k away from moving ahead of Philly by MSA.
Overall the places that did not grow in population didn't seem to lose too much, and the same metros that lead most of the decade are still leaders in growth. Dallas, Houston, Austin, Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte, Seattle etc.
Now we just need the actual real numbers from the under count to make sense of all this.
DC-Baltimore CSA did in fact surpass Chicago CSA by almost 95k (actually the year prior).
Los Angeles county (the nation's most populous) drops below 10 million.
SF MSA, SJ MSA, and SF/SJ CSA saw negative growth.
NY-LA-Chicago also seeing negative population growth by MSA. Riverside grew.
Atlanta is about 30k away from moving ahead of Philly by MSA.
Overall the places that did not grow in population didn't seem to lose too much, and the same metros that lead most of the decade are still leaders in growth. Dallas, Houston, Austin, Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte, Seattle etc.
Now we just need the actual real numbers from the under count to make sense of all this.
Remember NY/NJ/CT were combined undercounted by like 1.25 million so NYC almost certainly actually grew.
I’m sure Places like Atlanta, Dallas, SF are likely more accurate though since those state counts were much better.
IMO what happened likely had to do with Unorthodox living situations in big expensive cities/regions screwing with the Census estimates, as well as Mistaking people buying winter homes in AZ/FL for people buying actual homes in AZ/FL.
DC-Baltimore CSA did in fact surpass Chicago CSA by almost 95k (actually the year prior).
Los Angeles county (the nation's most populous) drops below 10 million.
SF MSA, SJ MSA, and SF/SJ CSA saw negative growth.
NY-LA-Chicago also seeing negative population growth by MSA. Riverside grew.
Atlanta is about 30k away from moving ahead of Philly by MSA.
Overall the places that did not grow in population didn't seem to lose too much, and the same metros that lead most of the decade are still leaders in growth. Dallas, Houston, Austin, Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte, Seattle etc.
Now we just need the actual real numbers from the under count to make sense of all this.
Great info here but if the census official numbers are correct, Phoenix isn't quite at 5 million yet. Philly's numbers may also be higher because PA was underestimated. Miami will be interesting to see considering the FL overestimate.
But it's hard to take it seriously since Arizona was super overcounted in the census numbers.
I agree. It was just an observation.
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