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There was already data being put out that told us the supposedly massive CA exodus of 2020 was totally overblown and nowhere near as big as the media has been reporting.
Agree that the media's lost their mind with the exodus nonsense, and no state comes close for VC. That said, this was the 1st time California grew below nat'l avg and it was the 4th slowest growing western state in terms of percentage after New Mexico, Alaska and Wyoming.
The national and state population counts from the 2020 census will be released at 3pm EDT today. This will include reapportionment for House of Representatives seats for the next decade.
From the last estimates released in December, the following changes were predicted. One alternate possibility involves New York losing only one seat, and Alabama dropping one as well.
-1 California
-1 Illinois
-1 Michigan
-1 Minnesota
-1 Ohio
-1 Pennsylvania
-1 Rhode Island
-1 West Virginia
-2 New York
If these estimates hold steady, the redistricting after the results of the 2020 census will mark the first time that California will lose a congressional seat.
The results of the 2010 census caused California's congressional delegation number to remain the same as the outcome of the 2000 census. This was the first time that California didn't gain a house seat after census results were released since it became a state.
Can we just remark on how badly some of the states were estimated? For Georgia alone, the estimate was nearly 800,000 higher than the 2020 count. That's an 80K annual overcount since 2010, more than the majority of states grew in total.
Amazing to see that two very different historically slow growth, cold weather states - Massachusetts and Nebraska - each matched the national growth rate of 7.4%. Minnesota, South Dakota and most of all North Dakota all exceeded the national growth rate.
Aside from West Virginia which declined substantially, just two other states had negligible population losses - Illinois and Mississippi.
I think what stands out most of all is the modest growth across most of the nation. Even relatively booming Utah, with the highest birth rate in the nation, didn't achieve a 20% increase for the decade.
People leave California with a heavy heart because it is a beautiful, smart, diverse state that you generally only leave if the cost of living forces you. Illinois is the inverse. Everyone wants to leave but the cheap cost of living and maybe family keeps you there. The point is that if Americans are in a moving mood they will be least likely to leave California and most likely to leave a place like Illinois.
I don't think that's entirely true about Illinois.
People I know of from Chicago did leave there with a heavy heart, and I completely understand given how much the city offers amenity-wise and culturally.
But if they're struggling to find work, the crime rate is too much to handle or they're sick of paying the high taxes, their hands get forced.
Huh? Georgia wasn't estimated at 11.5 million at any point.
You're right, some bad information out there.
Going directly to the source, these were just some of the real differences.
New York: Underestimated by 864,473.
New Jersey: Underestimated by 406,623
Arizona: Overestimated by 269,899
Illinois: Underestimated by 224,978
Texas: Overestimated by 215,254
Florida: Overestimated by 195,125
North Carolina: Overestimated by 161,435
I know when talking about millions of people, these are probably not that significant, but there is a pretty clear trend of overestimating Southern states and underestimating Northern states.
Arizona, Texas and Florida each gained one fewer seat than expected. The second loss in New York did not materialize, and Minnesota and Rhode Island avoided losses.
Going directly to the source, these were just some of the real differences.
New York: Underestimated by 864,473.
New Jersey: Underestimated by 406,623
Arizona: Overestimated by 269,899
Illinois: Underestimated by 224,978
Texas: Overestimated by 215,254
Florida: Overestimated by 195,125
North Carolina: Overestimated by 161,435
I know when talking about millions of people, these are probably not that significant, but there is a pretty clear trend of overestimating Southern states and underestimating Northern states.
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