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I decided to pore through the Demographia Housing Affordability Survey (Google to find) scores to see how housing has fared this past decade. I wanted to share the results here. The "survey" isn't actually a survey, simply a compilation of Median Home Price/Median Household Income:
New York has actually gotten cheaper in the past decade, while Philadelphia (+0.1 since 2010) has barely budged (and is still, to me, the best bang-for-your-buck in the entire continent). In the Northeast, the only two that have grown more unaffordable are Boston and Washington, though in both cases the trends are "moderate" (+1.1 and +0.8, respectively, which is about $100,000 per home).
As expected the biggest increases are in the West Coast and Canada, with Toronto being the #1 city for housing unaffordability growth. Vancouver is #2 at 3.5, followed by Los Angeles, Las Vegas and San Jose. It does look like the California housing exodus is having some impact, as San Diego and San Jose both became marginally more affordable in the past 5 years.
There were also notable increases in the Sunbelt, as the metro areas largely left the <3 range and began to climb up in unaffordability. Philadelphia is now a more affordable city than Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston. Ten years ago, Philadelphia was more expensive than Atlanta by 1.5, than Dallas by 1.1, and Houston by 0.9.
Any other trends I missed?
Last edited by manitopiaaa; 09-11-2021 at 10:13 AM..
I'm glad I don't have to live in a metro area. As someone that has car traveled often around the US, there are plenty of reasonable priced places to live. Now if you need nightlife and museums then a lot of those places don't fit the bill. But if price is your only concern, then you have options.
I just got a place in a fairly built up area. The plus is I'm a few miles to some of the best beaches in the continental US. And got it for under 6 figures.
My first thought, as it is when any city is compared to another in regards to housing costs, is size.
A city like Vancouver is only 115 square kilometres. Calgary is over 825 square kilometres.
How is this comparison fair? If you laid the boundaries of Calgary, over the city of Vancouver, Vancouver's prices would drop, as things get cheaper the further you are away from centre.
There are also questions about the Demographia Housing Affordability Survey, it's methods, and it's biases.
"The Survey only considers a limited set of housing types, geographic areas and impacts, which exaggerates the affordability of detached, urban-fringe housing and the unaffordability of compact urban infill. It blames housing unaffordability on urban containment regulations although they are actually uncommon and less costly than regulations limiting affordable infill. It ignores many sprawl costs and Smart Growth benefits. The IHAS fails to reflect professional standards: its analysis methods do not reflect current best practices, is not transparent, misrepresents key research, fails to respond to legitimate criticism, and lacks peer review. This critique indicates that the IHAS is propaganda, intended to support a political agenda rather than provide objective guidance. Although the IHAS information may be useful, it is important that users understand its biases."
My first thought, as it is when any city is compared to another in regards to housing costs, is size.
A city like Vancouver is only 115 square kilometres. Calgary is over 825 square kilometres.
How is this comparison fair? If you laid the boundaries of Calgary, over the city of Vancouver, Vancouver's prices would drop, as things get cheaper the further you are away from centre.
There are also questions about the Demographia Housing Affordability Survey, it's methods, and it's biases.
"The Survey only considers a limited set of housing types, geographic areas and impacts, which exaggerates the affordability of detached, urban-fringe housing and the unaffordability of compact urban infill. It blames housing unaffordability on urban containment regulations although they are actually uncommon and less costly than regulations limiting affordable infill. It ignores many sprawl costs and Smart Growth benefits. The IHAS fails to reflect professional standards: its analysis methods do not reflect current best practices, is not transparent, misrepresents key research, fails to respond to legitimate criticism, and lacks peer review. This critique indicates that the IHAS is propaganda, intended to support a political agenda rather than provide objective guidance. Although the IHAS information may be useful, it is important that users understand its biases."
These are metro area figures. If this was city proper, New York would be far more expensive (it's the cheap suburbs that keep things reasonable).
I think that criticism is a bit silly. The index is about the simplest methodology you can find: median home price divided by median household income. It's hard to say that they're cooking the books when the formula is quite easy to calculate.
These are metro area figures. If this was city proper, New York would be far more expensive (it's the cheap suburbs that keep things reasonable).
I think that criticism is a bit silly. The index is about the simplest methodology you can find: median home price divided by median household income. It's hard to say that they're cooking the books when the formula is quite easy to calculate.
Which municipalities were included for Vancouver?
In the end it doesn't matter because not all metro's are not the same size, so the issue of size is still there.
The critiques of the survey are clear, be careful how you interpret the results.
This is another source that does a quarterly list in terms of Housing Opportunity Index using median home sales price and median family income. This is the complete list by Affordability Rank for the 2nd Quarter of 2021: https://www.nahb.org/-/media/NAHB/ne...nk-2021q2.xlsx
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