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The West has plenty of room for population growth and the trends show that the west is growing over the east which is seeing population declines, especially in the northeast and midwest. Phoenix is the fastest growing city in the country right now and that's even despite the drought conditions and water scarcity. Would it be ideal for people to move east? absolutely, however I don't think it will happen. the west will continue to boom
This is mostly how I see it.
"Better live here, where else are you going to get water" wasn't a very compelling or inspiring pitch for life in the east in 1960 and still isn't today.
In the early mass migrations to the west, people knew what they were getting into-and figured it out. If the Los Angeles aqueduct could be conceived and built in 1913, I'm just not seeing a collective "well, I guess we were wrong about this, we better move to Columbus" in the future of the southwest.
Well, I don’t know about rice based agriculture, but in general east coast growth is tilted to the Southeast, not the Northeast. I think North and South Carolina, Georgia have the best growth prospects. Juggernaut Florida may slow due to climate change and overcrowding.
At some point maybe we'll re-evaluate the wisdom of subsidizing the risk of development in the most predictable and frequent disaster-prone area of the entire continental U.S.
Every time a hurricane kicks Florida in the teeth, we get headlines about how this is one of if not the most expensive disaster ever to hit the state. Well yeah, because every year people keep building more and more stuff for the hurricanes to knock over.
At some point maybe we'll re-evaluate the wisdom of subsidizing the risk of development in the most predictable and frequent disaster-prone area of the entire continental U.S.
Every time a hurricane kicks Florida in the teeth, we get headlines about how this is one of if not the most expensive disaster ever to hit the state. Well yeah, because every year people keep building more and more stuff for the hurricanes to knock over.
What seems odd to me for Florida is how they build everything literally on the edge of the coast in a linear path. 2 years ago, a fast moving storm hit Lake Charles, LA pretty bad but the 20 or so miles that Lake Charles is inland certainly allowed its damage to not reach that point that you saw in Fort Myers. In terms of storm weakening, 20 miles is huge. Makes me wonder why Florida obsesses with placing every single development on the edge of the coast.
What seems odd to me for Florida is how they build everything literally on the edge of the coast in a linear path. 2 years ago, a fast moving storm hit Lake Charles, LA pretty bad but the 20 or so miles that Lake Charles is inland certainly allowed its damage to not reach that point that you saw in Fort Myers. In terms of storm weakening, 20 miles is huge. Makes me wonder why Florida obsesses with placing every single development on the edge of the coast.
Well I think the answer is simple, however wrong it may be. Florida attracts retirees from the NE, and specifically SW Florida appeals to midwesterners and even Canadians. They want a beach lifestyle after decades living in the cold and snow. Weather appears to be changing but usually humans will not buy into this for decades after the change has begun. On one hand the older folks are playing the odds. But sometimes the gamble is a loser.
I'm sure I'm not alone amongst my Great Lakes brethren who yeah, hate the couple months of harsh winters, but get to know that water prices are low on the pole of what you worry about having to pay for. Honestly, I don't even know what mine is because where I live, water, electric, sewer, trash, internet is all rolled into one. And is like $250 to $300 a month. My only outside utility is gas, and that's only like $50 a month. Add that up with a $850 Mortgage (in a desirable area) and I'll live for a couple if crappy months in the winter.
I'm downstream of the lakes (Southern Illinois), but feel similar: the lack of stress is worth it for a few months of winter. My mortgage, RE tax, insurance, and all utilities are at $1200 for 1800 SQ FT on a quarter acre. Would probably be closer to $1500 if bought nowadays, due to higher interest rates and home prices. It's not a flashy area on the coast, but the neighbors are welcoming and the kids still play in the streets.
Even with the current drought and record-low river levels, the river barges are still moving and there are no water restrictions. No area is without natural disasters, but it isn't a constant year-to-year risk here.
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Originally Posted by GraniteStater
No, unlikely with the end stage feedback loop of increased temperatures, more evaporation of soil moisture out of the ground, and less available water in storage. Lake Mead and Powell are in complete collapse and won't be solved by "engineering." US population will shift east due to increasingly unlivable cities in the southwest like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and even to the east in San Antonio and Dallas down the road.
The majority of Southwest water is going to agriculture. Those folks will continue to be bought out, and probably paid handsomely for their water rights. With that water, the Southwest can support millions more.
From an engineering perspective...
- Water loss is almost entirely due to agriculture and evaporation. Residential and commercial water is generally not lost: it is fed back into the sewers, treated, and recirculated.
- It's not impossible to bring seawater into the Imperial Valley and desalinate it. Much of valley is already beneath sea level.
- Pheonix is less than 200 miles from Penasco and only at 2000'. It would be more efficient to pump from the sea vs across the continental divide.
- There are still multiple spots in NorCal for potential reservoirs. E.g. the Sites resorvoir.
- The Southwest still has a lot of conservation potential. Their per capita water use is the highest in the country. It should be the lowest. The irrigation of lawns and golf courses is ludicrous in their climate.
It remains to be seen how water resources will impact growth in the west. Western states have considerable brackish water aquifers. Some of those can be tapped with desalination efforts for water supplies. El Paso is tapping a brackish aquifer and has the world's largest inland desalination plant.
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