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Rhode Island (no room left for growth, ranks 2nd in population density)
West Virginia (remoteness, uncooperative geography)
Honorable Mentions:
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska Oklahoma
Nevada
(all have one or two cities with growth opportunity, but the remaining areas are lacking in needed growth characteristics)
Like Maine is for New Hampshire and Massachusetts, Oklahoma has the means to draw folks from regions like north Texas (namely Dallas) as well as parts of California's central valley due to some historical connections. Its cheap and although its currently uncool, folks fed up in TX/CA (and perhaps even down the road in places like TN) could see it as a cheaper alternative. It has two decently sized cities as well unlike the Dakotas and Wyoming.
Similarly, Wyoming has two corners which aren't too far from the major populated regions of its neighboring states. Cheyenne, the current largest city is less than an hour from the northern extent of the Front Range region in Colorado and the SW corner around Evanston is close to the Wasatch Valley where Salt Lake City and Park City is located. Its already the least populated state, but its cheap for a western state and even places like Jackson Hole could see further growth due to its popularity. The Dakotas are too flat, cold, and featureless, Nevada's boom is winding down with water concerns, and Nebraska, while I wouldn't say its growth will be as slow as the Dakotas, still suffers a bit from being a bit too featureless.
Say you bought a house years ago for a reasonable price in California back when that was still a thing.
Now you sell it for one of those catastrophic,loony-toons price tags out there in the land of million-dollar-mediocrity.
Then you go and buy something in middle America .
After that you get homesick and sell your average-priced house in Wherever, USA.
Go back to California and realize that you can’t afford the modern asking price of your old house.
I’m the meantime, you got used to lower taxes, fewer regulations, a less overbearing government, and the absence of crowds. Not to mention your paycheck may not be all that different, so the savings look even better.
California’s heyday is likely over for a while.
It could be a reasonable place again with the right leadership but it seems determined to go the opposite direction.
West Virginia. There isn’t much there to draw people in.
Illinois. I live a couple hours away in Wisconsin and wish I lived 12 hours further away. They were doing the exodus thing before it was cool.
Wyoming. It’s pretty, but the weather can be extreme in ways that are harder to deal with.
Like Maine is for New Hampshire and Massachusetts, Oklahoma has the means to draw folks from regions like north Texas (namely Dallas) as well as parts of California's central valley due to some historical connections. Its cheap and although its currently uncool, folks fed up in TX/CA (and perhaps even down the road in places like TN) could see it as a cheaper alternative. It has two decently sized cities as well unlike the Dakotas and Wyoming.
Similarly, Wyoming has two corners which aren't too far from the major populated regions of its neighboring states. Cheyenne, the current largest city is less than an hour from the northern extent of the Front Range region in Colorado and the SW corner around Evanston is close to the Wasatch Valley where Salt Lake City and Park City is located. Its already the least populated state, but its cheap for a western state and even places like Jackson Hole could see further growth due to its popularity. The Dakotas are too flat, cold, and featureless, Nevada's boom is winding down with water concerns, and Nebraska, while I wouldn't say its growth will be as slow as the Dakotas, still suffers a bit from being a bit too featureless.
The Dakotas are actually two of the faster-growing states.
The Black Hills and the Badlands are hardly what I’d call featureless.
North Dakota can be boom or bust, but South Dakota seems more likely to continue with steady growth.
Nebraska has two very solid cities. Omaha is quite robust.
I will still say WV and MS being on top of the list.
WV heyday is long gone and had been declining for years. Geography also doesn't favor large growth.
MS...well it never has much economy to begin with. Alabama has Huntsville, Arkansas has NWA, and to lesser extent, NOLA is around for Louisiana. MS has nothing. Jackson MS is a dump and Memphis TN is also somewhat of a dump, even if the MS suburbs are somewhat decent.
Then there's the Midwest. States like IL, MI, and OH will not be heading anywhere. There are pockets of nice growth like Grand Rapids MI or Columbus OH which prevent the latter two from becoming IL (b/c Chicago itself is not really growing), but overall those states are still hurting economically.
The whole New England outside of Massachusetts is also heading nowhere. The northern 3 (ME, VT, NH) are just rural to start with and doesn't have good climate. CT is too expensive with nothing going for it. RI is decent but also small...it can only hold so many people anyway.
Rhode Island (no room left for growth, ranks 2nd in population density)
West Virginia (remoteness, uncooperative geography)
Honorable Mentions:
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Nevada
(all have one or two cities with growth opportunity, but the remaining areas are lacking in needed growth characteristics)
Wyoming, North Dakota and Oklahoma will grow if the oil field is up and going.
And as some of said, Oklahoma will grow because of spillover from Texas. In fact Oklahoma now has a negative migration pattern with Texas and has had for about a decade (more Texans moving to Oklahoma than vice versa). This is almost solely a function of Texas astronomical growth and said spillover.
I will still say WV and MS being on top of the list.
WV heyday is long gone and had been declining for years. Geography also doesn't favor large growth.
MS...well it never has much economy to begin with. Alabama has Huntsville, Arkansas has NWA, and to lesser extent, NOLA is around for Louisiana. MS has nothing. Jackson MS is a dump and Memphis TN is also somewhat of a dump, even if the MS suburbs are somewhat decent.
Then there's the Midwest. States like IL, MI, and OH will not be heading anywhere. There are pockets of nice growth like Grand Rapids MI or Columbus OH which prevent the latter two from becoming IL (b/c Chicago itself is not really growing), but overall those states are still hurting economically.
The whole New England outside of Massachusetts is also heading nowhere. The northern 3 (ME, VT, NH) are just rural to start with and doesn't have good climate. CT is too expensive with nothing going for it. RI is decent but also small...it can only hold so many people anyway.
-NH will grow fast, like it has been. It probably will increase by 10-15% by 2040 as more MA and NY/NJ folks move up for lower taxes.
-ME will grow, not as fast as NH, but is seeing a wave of growth and interest within the state. 7-10% by 2040.
-CT will grow too as Stamford and New Haven build up and the migration from NYC comes in strong. I'd say 4-7% by 2040.
-VT will be up and down in waves. There is no stronghold. 0-5%.
-RI is a mess. Its dense, there is a ton of space left to build. But this state makes bad decision after bad decision. It has commuter rail service into Boston but somehow cannot get TOD right? -5% to +2%.
Paradigms are changing with retirees making up more and more of the population and work becoming untethered from a physical location.
WV will likely grow with people ditching NOVA as soon as they retire or can go remote. Who wants to be in that coporate grind?? A number of people that used to work in NOVA in my company have relocated to WV in the last 2 years. WV is arguably the most scenic state in the east.
Wyoming on the other hand won't grow. There's certainly scenic spots, but the towns aren't near those areas, the empty spaces in between just completely limit who can be there. Jackson isn't a real town and is so expensive basically anyone outside of the top 1% can just ride on through in their RV. Most of the new development aren't primary residences anyways. Cheyenne is too far away from the mountains and too out on the plains.
I'm not sure what will happen with the plains states like KS or NE. On one hand farming is becoming more industrialized but on the other hand the areas that are there punch above their weight compared to the SE US as far as daily functionality.
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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Reputation: 12187
WV has decent growth in easternmost counties but not enough to offset losses in rest of state. Unlike Kentucky even the urban counties in WV are losing population.
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
11,974 posts, read 25,468,595 times
Reputation: 12187
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddie gein
Wyoming, North Dakota and Oklahoma will grow if the oil field is up and going.
And as some of said, Oklahoma will grow because of spillover from Texas. In fact Oklahoma now has a negative migration pattern with Texas and has had for about a decade (more Texans moving to Oklahoma than vice versa). This is almost solely a function of Texas astronomical growth and said spillover.
OKC is trending upward in growth vs 20th century despite much slower growth on a national level. Becoming quite impressive and Tulsa is doing OK. At some point Dallas sprawl goes north to point that S OK counties become exurbs with high growth.
WV will likely grow with people ditching NOVA as soon as they retire or can go remote. Who wants to be in that coporate grind?? A number of people that used to work in NOVA in my company have relocated to WV in the last 2 years. WV is arguably the most scenic state in the east.
The growth of Jefferson Co and Berkeley Co is nowhere enough to offset the losses in rest of the state, though. The only other place in WV that's growing is Morgantown area but that's only b/c of WVU.
The eastern panhandle overall is very isolated from the rest of the state anyway. There's what? Three larger roads from Berkeley Co to Morgan Co? And basically one road from Morgan Co to the rest of the state without getting out of WV.
That area IS scenic, though...
Quote:
Originally Posted by censusdata
OKC is trending upward in growth vs 20th century despite much slower growth on a national level. Becoming quite impressive and Tulsa is doing OK. At some point Dallas sprawl goes north to point that S OK counties become exurbs with high growth.
There are still a fair chuck of Collin and Denton County that are not developed yet...it'll be a LONG time before it gets anywhere near Red River.
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