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VT has the 2nd highest drop in inventory over the past 12 months. definitely should grow by 10-15% by 2040.
Imho, West Virginia probably has bottomed out. Might start reversing its steep loss by 2030-2032 (in the same way Alabama did in the 2010s).
My picks are
-Louisiana
-Mississippi
-South Dakota
-Rhode Island
-North Dakota
Key word is rapid though.
Vermont is pretty xenophobic and anti-growth in general. This is a state that repeatedly let a well-known white supremacist stalk and harass stalk and threaten its only Black lawmaker out of office. She literally resigned because she feared for her life. This exact thing happened to an Asian couple who took over a failing "country store" they moved to Connecticut. This was within the last year or so. It is also the state with the highest per capita concentration of white supremacists fliering/demonstrations by farrrrr. They call anyone, not from Vermont a flatlander.
A proprietor of a store in Westminster, Mass., was instantly interested in the Putney gig when a local apple picker recommended it to him. It seemed like a great fit. But the man also happened to be a Taiwanese American moving to a state that is 94 percent white. After a year and a half he quit, citing the racism he experienced from customers and the community. He now runs a grocery store in Connecticut.
The state just socially isnt ready/couldnt. too sheltered.
Hilly, small and cold. Of all 50 states to do what is required for RAPID growth I think VT is least likely to embrace it. West Virginia is somewhat similar but its more disadvantaged by terrain and less so by anti-development culture.
If Boston cant even accommodates rapid growth then high property tax, septic-reliant VT certainly cant.
Vermont is pretty xenophobic and anti-growth in general. This is a state that repeatedly let a well-known white supremacist stalk and harass stalk and threaten its only Black lawmaker out of office. She literally resigned because she feared for her life. This exact thing happened to an Asian couple who took over a failing "country store" they moved to Connecticut. This was within the last year or so. It is also the state with the highest per capita concentration of white supremacists fliering/demonstrations by farrrrr. They call anyone, not from Vermont a flatlander.
A proprietor of a store in Westminster, Mass., was instantly interested in the Putney gig when a local apple picker recommended it to him. It seemed like a great fit. But the man also happened to be a Taiwanese American moving to a state that is 94 percent white. After a year and a half he quit, citing the racism he experienced from customers and the community. He now runs a grocery store in Connecticut.
The state just socially isnt ready/couldnt. too sheltered.
Hilly, small and cold. Of all 50 states to do what is required for RAPID growth I think VT is least likely to embrace it. West Virginia is somewhat similar but its more disadvantaged by terrain and less so by anti-development culture.
If Boston cant even accommodates rapid growth then high property tax, septic-reliant VT certainly cant.
Burlington is an exception to this mindset from what I have seen. Every time I am there (was there over the weekend) I see new housing going up. It might not ever become a boom town, but I believe that it will continue to grow like other young and liberal oriented places have (IE: Asheville/Boulder/Portland, ME).
The rest of Vermont seems to be content with small towns and rural living. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that! I do not believe that race/ethnicity has much to do with that. I could be wrong, but the many people I've met in Vermont are very friendly and hospitable. Even to me, who is quickly labeled as a southern due to my accent.
West Virginia's major problem for decades has been its state government. That is starting to change. I believe that there is a "pro-growth" culture currently in office now. While I personally feel that the governor is everything that personifies hillbilly/WV stereotypes, that is besides the point. He has actually accomplished a lot for the state. Infrastructure is expanding, manufacturing jobs have been added, and announcements of new investments are announced frequently.
To your point about the state's topography issues. I agree that WV has a disadvantage due to its extremely hilly terrain. However, that is no excuse. Pittsburgh is a great example of how cities and suburbs can develop in a mountainous topography. WV also has a unique/weird advantage now of developing former strip mines. There still needs to be infrastructure put in place to access these sites, but they offer thousands of acers of developable land.
Something that people do not realize about WV is that the population loss is not consistent across the board. It is mostly happening in rural counties that lack access to jobs. Either due to coal mines or factories closing. People understand that part. What they may not get is that there's parts of the state that are doing well and defy all the stereotypes that people label WV with.
North Central West Virginia (Clarksburg/Bridgeport/Fairmont/Morgantown) is transforming itself into a very attractive region. Federal government jobs, the energy sector, some aerospace, some technology firms, and healthcare have helped to shape that part of the state. WVU and WVU Medicine is a big player in that region. Mon county continues to experience "rapid" growth. Yes it is anchored by a major college town, but a lot of the growth there is in the private sector. This part of the state is close enough to Pittsburgh to glean off of that metro.
In the Eastern Panhandle, there has been even more growth. In large part due to land conservation efforts in Maryland, DC's suburbs have started to spill into Jefferson and Berkeley counties. The infrastructure in that part of the state cannot keep up with the demand. On top of being a bedroom community, that region is also growing in manufacturing, distribution, and in federal jobs as well. The Coast Guard, US Customs & Border Patrol, USDA, among others all have large facilities in the EP. It has the advantage of developable land, major interstate access, and proximity to DC and Baltimore.
Burlington is an exception to this mindset from what I have seen. Every time I am there (was there over the weekend) I see new housing going up. It might not ever become a boom town, but I believe that it will continue to grow like other young and liberal oriented places have (IE: Asheville/Boulder/Portland, ME).
The rest of Vermont seems to be content with small towns and rural living. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that! I do not believe that race/ethnicity has much to do with that. I could be wrong, but the many people I've met in Vermont are very friendly and hospitable. Even to me, who is quickly labeled as a southern due to my accent.
West Virginia's major problem for decades has been its state government. That is starting to change. I believe that there is a "pro-growth" culture currently in office now. While I personally feel that the governor is everything that personifies hillbilly/WV stereotypes, that is besides the point. He has actually accomplished a lot for the state. Infrastructure is expanding, manufacturing jobs have been added, and announcements of new investments are announced frequently.
To your point about the state's topography issues. I agree that WV has a disadvantage due to its extremely hilly terrain. However, that is no excuse. Pittsburgh is a great example of how cities and suburbs can develop in a mountainous topography. WV also has a unique/weird advantage now of developing former strip mines. There still needs to be infrastructure put in place to access these sites, but they offer thousands of acers of developable land.
Something that people do not realize about WV is that the population loss is not consistent across the board. It is mostly happening in rural counties that lack access to jobs. Either due to coal mines or factories closing. People understand that part. What they may not get is that there's parts of the state that are doing well and defy all the stereotypes that people label WV with.
North Central West Virginia (Clarksburg/Bridgeport/Fairmont/Morgantown) is transforming itself into a very attractive region. Federal government jobs, the energy sector, some aerospace, some technology firms, and healthcare have helped to shape that part of the state. WVU and WVU Medicine is a big player in that region. Mon county continues to experience "rapid" growth. Yes it is anchored by a major college town, but a lot of the growth there is in the private sector. This part of the state is close enough to Pittsburgh to glean off of that metro.
In the Eastern Panhandle, there has been even more growth. In large part due to land conservation efforts in Maryland, DC's suburbs have started to spill into Jefferson and Berkeley counties. The infrastructure in that part of the state cannot keep up with the demand. On top of being a bedroom community, that region is also growing in manufacturing, distribution, and in federal jobs as well. The Coast Guard, US Customs & Border Patrol, USDA, among others all have large facilities in the EP. It has the advantage of developable land, major interstate access, and proximity to DC and Baltimore.
Burlington is the largest city at 44k. its added a whopping 6,000 people in the past 50 years. Again, this is a place with only a handful of municipal sewage systems and no billboard advertising..
The small town life is a fine personal choice but on a state level, it leads to sentiments that support exclusion, xenophobia, lagging economic growth, and little potential for innovation. Thus rapid growth is next to impossible.
I never had any issues in Vermont but I haven't spent much time there. Kiah Morris isn't the only black woman run out of town due to her race. And yes it was explicitly due to her race, but there were two other black women as well.
Mia Schultz has watched three other Black women in Vermont leave leadership posts in the mostly white state because of harassment and threats. She’s also seen Black acquaintances move away from the progressive state that is home to Bernie Sanders and Ben & Jerry’s ice cream because they felt unwelcomed.
But the 45-year-old mother of two teenage boys feels called to continue fighting racism, which she’s done since moving to the state from southern California six years ago.
I really don’t feel like I have a choice,” said Schultz, who replaced another Black woman, Tabitha Moore, who decided not to run for reelection citing harassment. “We’re talking about our children.”
The state also leads New England in racist propaganda, such as stickers, banners and flyers, from the white supremacist group Patriot Front, according to the Vermont Intelligence Center.
Since 2018, at least three Black female leaders in Vermont, including a state lawmaker, a town board member and the former head of the Rutland area NAACP branch, have left their roles in response to persistent harassment and sometimes violent threats. Democratic state Rep. Kiah Morris, who was the only Black woman in the Vermont state Legislature, resigned that year partially in response to harassment from a self-described white nationalist.
Vermont is pretty xenophobic and anti-growth in general. This is a state that repeatedly let a well-known white supremacist stalk and harass stalk and threaten its only Black lawmaker out of office. She literally resigned because she feared for her life. This exact thing happened to an Asian couple who took over a failing "country store" they moved to Connecticut. This was within the last year or so. It is also the state with the highest per capita concentration of white supremacists fliering/demonstrations by farrrrr. They call anyone, not from Vermont a flatlander.
A proprietor of a store in Westminster, Mass., was instantly interested in the Putney gig when a local apple picker recommended it to him. It seemed like a great fit. But the man also happened to be a Taiwanese American moving to a state that is 94 percent white. After a year and a half he quit, citing the racism he experienced from customers and the community. He now runs a grocery store in Connecticut.
The state just socially isnt ready/couldnt. too sheltered.
Hilly, small and cold. Of all 50 states to do what is required for RAPID growth I think VT is least likely to embrace it. West Virginia is somewhat similar but its more disadvantaged by terrain and less so by anti-development culture.
If Boston cant even accommodates rapid growth then high property tax, septic-reliant VT certainly cant.
It would take one subdivision to grow VTs population by 1%.
Their GDP per capita is dead last in the country, period. At $46,848 per capita that's way behind #50 Arkansas ($54,141), #49 WV ($54,278), or #48 Alabama ($54,652). It is one of the grand total of 3 states that lost population from 2010-2020 (The other two being WV and Illinois).
The only population growth in that state is Gulfport area and areas like DeSoto County (Suburb of Memphis). Gulfport itself is seeing similar growth to Mobile AL (~7.5% from 2010 to 2020), but MS itself doesn't have a Fayetteville (24% growth in a decade) or Huntsville AL (~11% growth in a decade). Jackson? Losing population left and right while Little Rock AR or Birmingham AL are at least growing slightly (~3% from 2010-2020).
tl;dr: MS has nothing going for it, period.
1.GDP Per Capita -> Cost Of Living
2. Incorrect the state was undercounted and gain population.
3. You missed Hattiseburg, Tupelo, Starkville, Oxford, .......oh wait
I will still say WV and MS being on top of the list.
WV heyday is long gone and had been declining for years. Geography also doesn't favor large growth.
MS...well it never has much economy to begin with. Alabama has Huntsville, Arkansas has NWA, and to lesser extent, NOLA is around for Louisiana. MS has nothing. Jackson MS is a dump and Memphis TN is also somewhat of a dump, even if the MS suburbs are somewhat decent.
Then there's the Midwest. States like IL, MI, and OH will not be heading anywhere. There are pockets of nice growth like Grand Rapids MI or Columbus OH which prevent the latter two from becoming IL (b/c Chicago itself is not really growing), but overall those states are still hurting economically.
The whole New England outside of Massachusetts is also heading nowhere. The northern 3 (ME, VT, NH) are just rural to start with and doesn't have good climate. CT is too expensive with nothing going for it. RI is decent but also small...it can only hold so many people anyway.
CT has plenty going for it along with one of the highest per capita incomes for a few decades ongoing. The notion that it doesn’t is insane. It’s a stable high income state with generally a very high quality of life.
Not sure where these stats are coming from as CT in particular is receiving material in-migration and more retirement age residents are staying in the state.
Illinois suffered significant undercounting during the 2020 census, leading to the mistaken conclusion that the state lost residents over the previous 10 years. In reality, it added over 250,000 people and its population swelled to over 13 million.
That revelation was from a report from the U.S. Census Bureau, which was released in May, 2022. The Bureau admitted that its 10 year head counts were off in more than a dozen states.
So is Illinois really larger than Pennsylvania now or not? The 2020 Census seems like an absolute trainwreck. I wish it could be redone instead of expecting us to wait until 2030 for a better Census.
1.GDP Per Capita -> Cost Of Living
2. Incorrect the state was undercounted and gain population.
3. You missed Hattiseburg, Tupelo, Starkville, Oxford, .......oh wait
Tl;dr
Tupelo isn't doing so well. The Census Bureau says it's lost population since 2020.
Lee County (Tupelo) lost 460 people from 2020-2021.
Itawamba County lost 25 people.
Pontotoc County gained 261 people.
Therefore, the Tupelo micropolitan area lost 224 people from 2020-2021. Tupelo has definitely lost some of its luster. It used to be Mississippi's golden child for growth and could always be relied on to show robust growth. I wonder what happened. It doesn't look like the massive Toyota plant in neighboring Union County has brought the rapid growth they were hoping. 2021 population: 138,166.
Oxford is definitely growing. It grew 1.9% in one year, adding 1,071 from 2020-2021. 2021 population: 56,884.
Starkville is limping along. It grew 0.1% in one year, adding 54 people from 2020-2021. 2021 population: 51,842
Hattiesburg is growing but not very quickly although I guess it is by Mississippi standards. Even though Forrest County (Hattiesburg) lost population, the Hattiesburg metro area as a whole added 903 people in one year, a 0.6% increase 2020-2021. 2021 population: 154,799.
Mississippi lost 0.4% of its population 2020-2021. Remove DeSoto County (fast growing Memphis suburb) and the situation would be even bleaker. I would definitely nominate Mississippi for the dubious title of "State Least Likely to Experience Rapid Growth" (the topic of this thread).
Tupelo isn't doing so well. The Census Bureau says it's lost population since 2020.
Lee County (Tupelo) lost 460 people from 2020-2021.
Itawamba County lost 25 people.
Pontotoc County gained 261 people.
Therefore, the Tupelo micropolitan area lost 224 people from 2020-2021. Tupelo has definitely lost some of its luster. It used to be Mississippi's golden child for growth and could always be relied on to show robust growth. I wonder what happened. It doesn't look like the massive Toyota plant in neighboring Union County has brought the rapid growth they were hoping. 2021 population: 138,166.
Oxford is definitely growing. It grew 1.9% in one year, adding 1,071 from 2020-2021. 2021 population: 56,884.
Starkville is limping along. It grew 0.1% in one year, adding 54 people from 2020-2021. 2021 population: 51,842
Hattiesburg is growing but not very quickly although I guess it is by Mississippi standards. Even though Forrest County (Hattiesburg) lost population, the Hattiesburg metro area as a whole added 903 people in one year, a 0.6% increase 2020-2021. 2021 population: 154,799.
Mississippi lost 0.4% of its population 2020-2021. Remove DeSoto County (fast growing Memphis suburb) and the situation would be even bleaker. I would definitely nominate Mississippi for the dubious title of "State Least Likely to Experience Rapid Growth" (the topic of this thread).
I thought we're looking at the long term ( 10 year basis census update) not year to year basis. Also, DeSoto rapid growth slowed after the 90s-00s era.
West Virginia, Maine, Vermont, or Wyoming would have that dubious title before Mississippi.
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