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I actually think it might see the least-ish change. It’s not gonna get much larger than 30% Hispanic without rapid growth East if I-35, in Lockhart, in Bastrop and in Hays County. It’s probably gonna get a lot more Asian maybe be 15% even by 2040, but I think it’s White, Hispanic and Black population will bear most of the demographic difference from the Asian growth. White people may have even outgrow Hispanic people in the last decade just to show you how much the metro is stable demographically. It will get a lot more folks outside of the expected groups meaning; Chinese, Indian, White American, African American, Mexican American, Vietnamese American. That will add something to the area but the on paper numbers won’t budge much outside of the overall Asian population.
Agreed.
I'd be interested in what happens with El Paso, Laredo, and the other border cities. The Mexican immigrants there will continue to assimilate and fewer and fewer will cross the border to replace them (in part because standards of living in Mexico are increasing). Will that make these cities --- with their low crime rates, warm weather, and cheap housing --- more desirable to other races of Americans?
Just to put it in perspective, an article came out on the NYT showing how since 2013, the average school district they surveyed went from 76% white to 58% white. In 10 years.
Massachusetts has also received about 10,000 migrants from the ongoing crisis (NYC received 113,000 and Chicago topped 13,000). However, MA is being much warmer to these migrants than NYC is and word is spreading. The NYT also reports that the amount of migrants choosing Boston is increasing because of word of mouth, according to the Catholic charities bussing migrants up to their city of choice.
If MA gets even 50,000 (unlikely) then that will literally change Boston forever. The 10,000 that have come to MA have been dispersed to the suburbs which is going well. Unlike here in NY (there is literally no space here in NY…). But boston has space. And so do its suburbs. Most of these migrants are from Haiti/Africa coming to Boston unlike Venezuela and Central America to NYC.
But I feel if Boston gains more traction with the open borders, more come, and the state gets better with dealing with them…. It could really alter Massachusetts.
I actually think it might see the least-ish change. It’s not gonna get much larger than 30% Hispanic without rapid growth East if I-35, in Lockhart, in Bastrop and in Hays County. It’s probably gonna get a lot more Asian maybe be 15% even by 2040, but I think it’s White, Hispanic and Black population will bear most of the demographic difference from the Asian growth. White people may have even outgrow Hispanic people in the last decade just to show you how much the metro is stable demographically. It will get a lot more folks outside of the expected groups meaning; Chinese, Indian, White American, African American, Mexican American, Vietnamese American. That will add something to the area but the on paper numbers won’t budge much outside of the overall Asian population.
Like I said, it may be an interesting one to watch over the next 20 years. No one can say the next 20 years will be like the last.
I'd be interested in what happens with El Paso, Laredo, and the other border cities. The Mexican immigrants there will continue to assimilate and fewer and fewer will cross the border to replace them (in part because standards of living in Mexico are increasing). Will that make these cities --- with their low crime rates, warm weather, and cheap housing --- more desirable to other races of Americans?
I think that will play a super interesting role. El Paso for example is relatively safe, cheap and has a really beautiful environment. I could see that city especially compared with Laredo and the RGV being much flatter, slightly more dangerous and much more economically depressed. The perception would need to change of El Paso being a city filled with Americans of Hispanic descent rather than a city of Mexican Americans. That perception change will probably lead to more non-military and non-Hispanic folks moving to that area.
I’m not saying that there’s anything wrong with being labeled as Mexican American. I think the vast majority of people it’s no big deal, but I do think a city were folks give of the veneer of my great grandfather was Mexican which is likely a lot of the majority Hispanic cities of Texas’s future is more appealing to a wider range of Americans. Today we have lots of folks that are in the my great grandfather is Italian or Irish camp and I don’t think those areas had the same appeal when they were looked at as just Italian American or Irish American neighborhoods 60 years ago, but I could be mistaken.
One interesting trend is that 4th generation Hispanic folks somewhat a sizable majority of them don’t identify as Hispanic but as White or Black or Mixed Race Americans, that are non-Hispanic. This is because Hispanic America has an 36% interracial marriage rate for native born Hispanics with non-Hispanic Americans. In a place like Laredo, El Paso or the RGV whites make up a much smaller minority, and so even though the vast majority of folks are American born I don’t expect a trend like that to continue and thus a more organic Hispanic American culture that is multigenerational should form. I wonder how Hispanic culture looks like for example after 4-5 generations and no one is speaking Spanish. It’s super interesting to think about.
I see Boomer whites leaving northern cities and being added to primarily white warmer climates so no demographic change to the retirement belt, more of the same IOW.
That leaves northern cities with fewer whites and more immigrants being added.
Atlanta and Orlando are mentioned as demographic changers but I don't see enough change possible there, meaning both outflow of one demo and inflow of a different demo.
Immigrants and retirees will be the change, which city will see the most leaving (retirees) and the most coming (immigrants).
My vote is Boston but it could also be Minneapolis or Detroit.
Just to put it in perspective, an article came out on the NYT showing how since 2013, the average school district they surveyed went from 76% white to 58% white. In 10 years.
Massachusetts has also received about 10,000 migrants from the ongoing crisis (NYC received 113,000 and Chicago topped 13,000).
Maybe closer to 15,000. 1,000 families are arriving per month. Right now there are 6,300 families and over 20,000 people in shelters, the majority of whom are migrants.
Maybe closer to 15,000. 1,000 families are arriving per month. Right now there are 6,300 families and over 20,000 people in shelters, the majority of whom are migrants.
And yeah the vast majority of these migrants are from Haiti- idk about Africa. A few seem to be from Venezuela.
Yeah since i posted that… the amount of migrants arriving in Massachusetts has increased significantly in proportion to NYC/Chicago. It’s actually wild.
It will only take a few more thousand for MA to have more than NY per capita.
In reality, it will probably be Rhode Island and Connecticut metros. Maybe above all else. Not really exciting stuff for most of us here.
The super diverse metros will still be super diverse metros.
I'd add Upstate NY metros too, but at a little bit slower rate. Some already have been refugee resettlement hubs(go through Buffalo's West Side or Syracuse's inner North Side for examples), let along the immigration and some migrants also coming to those areas. I can see Pittsburgh getting more and many PA cities outside of Philadelphia have been seeing increases in their Hispanic and even Black populations due to people moving inland from the NYC area. This article about Bethlehem PA from 2011 illustrates this: https://jerkmagazine.net/9mfehhs6kt2...ority-minority
So, it is across the Northeast to some degree already.
Atlanta has seen a huge political and demographics change the past 10 years or so, and I think it will become a much more diverse area with many ethnicities, rather than being a dominate "African American" populace, or "Caucasian" populace, etc. I believe it will become more homogenized, overall.
And I think diversity and a broad range of ethnicities is a real good thing.
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