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Here's why: If houston continued at it's current growth rate, it would have almost 5 million people by 2050, more than doubling it's current population. This growth is not sustainable, and certainly cannot continue indefinitely. Most demographic estimates would project a decline of the growth rate towards around 1% annually, significantly below it's current rate.
Certainly density in Houston is increasing, but a continuation of (or increase in) current growth rates would lead to unprecedented increases in population density (to around 8000 people per square mile in a 600 square mile city). This is not to say that Houston's overall population will decrease, just it's annual rate of growth.
Not entirely true. Houston right now is at about 4,000 people per square mile. I think that Houston will remain the same throughout 2020 (I'll be about 29 years old then, so hopefully I see this happen). The City of Houston should remain the same because there is still some land left in the NE and Southern parts of the city for development. Rail transit is expanding and there are many mixed-use developments going up in the core. Add to that, there are also mixed-use developments going up in the City of Houston, but away from the core. For example, this is one away from the core: CITYCENTRE - Houston, TX .
Things like this are continuing throughout the city, so I don't see it slowing down until sometime around 2020 (even then, Houston may possible host the World Fair in 2020, which will increase growth).
Not that I like it but I do think Houston will pass Chicago in population some time between 2020 and 2030. It could possibly even become the highest populated city in America because of the rapid growth of the state and the fact that it has 600 square miles to work with. That would be something.
Things like this are continuing throughout the city, so I don't see it slowing down until sometime around 2020 (even then, Houston may possible host the World Fair in 2020, which will increase growth).
As for Chicago, how do you see it increasing?
It's very difficult to imagine a major US city of Houston's size maintaining a 2% annual growth rate for 25-30 years, which would have to occur if what you're saying is true. This is simply unprecedented.
Secondly, Chicago's population has already begun to increase again after reaching a nadir in 2006. Such a resurgence has been seen in many cities like Chicago. The renewed growth, while slow, is assured.
Chicago has plenty of vacant land remaining for construction of new housing. Much of the south and west sides of Chicago lost significant population and housing stock as the population decreased from its peak of 3.5 million. In the near south and west sides, new construction has added thousands of mid and high-rise units every year most of the past decade. Its possible, not saying its inevitable, but its possible that high fuel prices (among other factors) will continue to support the resurgence of central cities like Chicago which have good public transit access and very strong, concentrated employment districts.
And honestly I think the Census likes to screw CA. They split the Bay Area up into two metro regions as well as the LA/OC/Inland Empire/Ventura metro area into several metro regions to for god knows what reason.
And honestly I think the Census likes to screw CA. They split the Bay Area up into two metro regions as well as the LA/OC/Inland Empire/Ventura metro area into several metro regions to for god knows what reason.
its a discrepancy
Last edited by TYGA; 07-11-2008 at 03:21 PM..
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