The 2016 candidate cities are good, not great or promising. My take...
Chicago's bid: Even though they never hosted the Summer Olympics(SO), they were elected to do so in 1904. But Pres. Theodore Roosevelt wanted the S.O. to be held in St. Louis. Why? Because the world's fair was being held there. And Paris did the same thing in 1900. The IOC did hesitate but gave in to their request. Wrong decision. The IOC were so upset b/c Tug-of-war and potato sack races were performed. That outraged the IOC that in 1906 they held an unofficial Olympics in Athens. The US was not invited!
Pro: Strong television coverage. Good multi-purpose Olympic stadium.
Con: History w/ the IOC. Venues are too scattered w/ limited transportation infrastructure.
Prediction....Chicago will be eliminates in the first round vote.
Rio's Bid...This is the first time Rio has made it on the short list. What really helped Rio was the successful Pan Am Games in '07. Like Madrid, their venues are located in three major sections with the Olympic stadium and Village located in the center. They are easily accessible by rail system. If they won the bid, they would be the first South American city to host the SO.
Pro: Great television coverage. Successful Pan AM games. Would be the first host city in S.A. Most of the venues are built.
Con: High crime in some parts of Rio (this years carnival was a fiasco). First time to the short list. Questionable funding from Gov't, or lack there of.
Prediction.... Rio will be eliminated in the second round.
Madrid's Bid: This is Madrid's second time around when they lost in the third round of elimination for the race for the 2012 Games. Barcelona is the only Spanish city to host the SO, in 1992 (I was there and it was the best). Their bid has their venues concentrated in three major areas that are easily accessible by a fairly good subway and bus system within a 20 km distance.
Pro: Second time around with major restructuring of their bid. Strong infrastructure of hotels and transportation.
Con: Weak venue plan, a lot of the venues need to be built or revamped. Too close to the London games of 2012.
Prediction...Madrid will be eliminated in the final round.
Tokyo's bid... This is the first time for their bid since they hosted the SO in 1964. Their bid is known as the 10km Olympics, b/c every venue and competition will be held within 10km from the Olympic Stadium and Village. Everything will be accessible by subway system. They are improving existing venues from the 1964 SO including the original Olympic Stadium. They will be building necessary venues since more games have been added. With Japans innovation in land reclamation, the Olympic stadium and village will be built on Tokyo Bay!
Pro: Close proximity of venues for everyone. Excellent infastructure all around! Past SO experiences from 1964.
Con: Too close from Beijing games. Congestion on streets and subways.
Prediction.... Tokyo Will Be The Host City for 2016!!!!!
Sorry guys... I want Chicago to win but you know... their BID stinks! There are too many variables that the IOC will say no. You guys have a great advertisement program, but your program is not up to par to Rio's and Tokyo's. After Atlanta's fiasco with traffic and congestion, the IOC is looking at the compactness of the games. Chicago doesn't have it!!!!! Better luck next time!!!! It's a toss up between Tokyo and Madrid.
See for yourself...
Chicago 2016: Sure Thing, Say Oddsmakers; Long Shot, Says I.O.C. Report - Rings Blog - NYTimes.com
This link was written some time ago, but the votes could change.
GamesBids.com - Reaction To Chicago̢۪s Last Place Ranking On BidIndex
This was released yesterday.
Now this is a very long pdf., but for the Olympic geeks like myself, it gives you an idea what the IOC is looking for in a city to host the Olympics. This is straight from the IOC report from 2008. This is how they broke it down from seven cities to four candidate cities. The grading starts on page 16.
http://multimedia.olympic.org/pdf/en_report_1317.pdf (broken link)
2nd of October, 2009 will be decision day!
It looks like a battle between Madrid and Tokyo. The IOC will tour these four cities during the summer. Let the games begin!!!!!