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How are NC and AZ doing well? They are one of the worst. They have one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country and NC's unemployment rate is sky high. The states that grew the fastest are going to have the hardest time recovering. In my opinion there isnt one state that you can consider in good shape.
I was about to say the same exact thing. Phoenix was recently named one of the emptiest cities in the nation because it over-built so quickly. It's also one of the cities with the most job losses, with 86,800 (Source: Major cities lost 1.2M jobs in '08 - The Business Journal of Milwaukee:). Tucson lost over 15,000 jobs.
According to that data, Texas has easily been the best state for the recession.
Moving up from what though?
Most losses are (from what I've heard) due to 'bubbles' where huge growth has burst leaving many out of work. If your state had no huge growth then it's safe to say it wasn't hit that hard but still...I don't know if I'd call that progress.
There was a real estate bubble in Baton Rouge and Lafayette. It never really burst though. It started a little after the bubbles in other states and so it saw them burst so it quickly put itself into check. New neighborhoods and shopping centers slowed down enough in response to prevent us from being overbuilt.
I'm not saying the state has only made progress in this one area. It is many areas. We have a legacy of corrupt politicians, which has started to come to an end. Roads have been improving dramatically. Universities are growing and thriving. In Baton Rouge, almost every type of crime has been going down for several years.
There was a real estate bubble in Baton Rouge and Lafayette. It never really burst though. It started a little after the bubbles in other states and so it saw them burst so it quickly put itself into check. New neighborhoods and shopping centers slowed down enough in response to prevent us from being overbuilt.
I'm not saying the state has only made progress in this one area. It is many areas. We have a legacy of corrupt politicians, which has started to come to an end. Roads have been improving dramatically. Universities are growing and thriving. In Baton Rouge, almost every type of crime has been going down for several years.
Metro; I agree with you. I have several family members across Louisiana and they say they same thing you do. Louisiana isn't hurting right now.
South Dakota and the Upper Midwest with the exception of perhaps Minnesota have been doing quite well, our unemployment rate just went up at the beginning of the year to like 4.2% I think.....granted the pay will not be as high as other places in the country but the cost of living is much less. The Sioux Falls metro area is number 19 in the fastest growing metros in the country I think, it gained over 6,000 people in the last year I believe.
How are NC and AZ doing well? They are one of the worst. They have one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country and NC's unemployment rate is sky high. The states that grew the fastest are going to have the hardest time recovering. In my opinion there isnt one state that you can consider in good shape.
I spoke with my daughter in NC last night and the unemployment in her area has now reached 16.8% AND the layoffs are continuing.
How are NC and AZ doing well? They are one of the worst. They have one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country and NC's unemployment rate is sky high. The states that grew the fastest are going to have the hardest time recovering. In my opinion there isnt one state that you can consider in good shape.
Unemployment is high in NC but foreclosure rates are not "sky high", unless you are referring only to AZ. NC has one of the best housing markets during the down turn. The worst in North Carolina was Asheville with a -3.88% price decline for 2008, and our current default rate for February was 1 in 2000 households. That is pretty low (Nevada is like 1 in 100 or so).
However, I think people assume low unemployment=high growth rates. While in a micro sense that makes sense, in some ways it does not. Lets say there are no jobs being created in the US at the moment in any state (pretty much a true statement). Now lets say 50,000 people move to your state in a month and none find a job. Guess what, your unemployment rate "sky rockets." That is why a lot of north midwest to rockies states are having such low unemployment levels. They weren't growing during the boom times either! I grew up in that area; there is no real boom and there is no real bust due to the small populations. So again, all these states with high migration rates still (NC, TX, and VA) are going to see on a month over month level higher unemployment increases when compared "correctly" to other states if this continues (though it should slow down dramatically over time). Now look at migration of 50,000 unemployed moving out of your state (i.e. Michigan). If this is not replaced with new migration with no jobs, your unemployment rate will drop.
So in short, unemployment rates do not corrrespond well to population growth rates, other then psychology migration patterns (which are temporary).
So yes, states who have had explosive growth (with diversified economies) are at the highest risk for high unemployment rates. The oens who weren't diversified (i.e. Michigan) are an exception to this because, well, the obvious. One exception, so far, is VA who has grown somewhat quickly and has stayed fairly low unemployment rates due to the Federal jobs.
But if you look at the boom states of CA, AZ, and NC, they all have very high unemployment rates (but I would look at the % change from 2008 and 2007). Some states when the economy was booming already had high %'s due to other factors (i.e. NC was 6% avg while the rest of the US was 4%, yet NC had one of the best economies...macro and micro factors here). States with energy have a 6 month "shift" due to their nature, i.e. TX and maybe CO, compared to the other high growth states. Trust me, its coming, its the macro nature (just look at the TX leading indicators to see some really interesting yet somewhat scary **** coming). Now before anyone goes about oil rising, guess what, that is not the main money maker. Natural gas is. And natural gas is still plummeting. July was your energy pick. Add 6 months, and look at your TX leading indicators (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas if you are completely confused by what I'm saying). The safety net is gone.
So word to the wise to everyone, just be optimistic and try hard at whatever you do best. Don't look for a holy grail in other states nor criticize other states for being horrible, as we are all in this together and in the end, and we need to come out of this together. Again, you won't see much difference between state's (save the non difersivied ones), no matter where they rank in the "unemployment" numbers.
Last edited by Maabus1999; 03-22-2009 at 08:49 PM..
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