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Old 02-01-2012, 11:12 AM
 
110 posts, read 259,235 times
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I think the odds right now are that he won't win Georgia this time around, although there is still the possibility that a very strong showing nationwide could flip Georgia into his column just barely. But if demographic trends in GA continue and if Republicans don't find a way to attract hispanic voters then Georgia will definitely become a swing state within the next few cycles.
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Old 02-01-2012, 01:08 PM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,862 posts, read 15,317,871 times
Reputation: 3576
Quote:
Originally Posted by toll_booth View Post
Ah, well. Four years of Mitt might get some people to wake up. Maybe.
I lived in Mass during Mitt's entire 4 year term, and while he isn't perfect, he's actually a very smart guy with some common sense. He took control of the big dig towards the end and started to clean up the mess.

His downfall is that he has a hard time taking a stand and sticking to it, and he sometimes can be perceived as a flip flopper. One thing I love about him is that he's not a religious zealot and is a northeastern Republican.
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Old 02-01-2012, 02:51 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA
443 posts, read 803,547 times
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Isn't GA a pretty solid Republican state? I don't really see it happening tbh...
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:21 PM
 
110 posts, read 259,235 times
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nothing in politics stays the same. In the 1988 election, California, Florida and New Jersey were solidly Republican and West Virginia was solidly democratic. States' demographics change, and political parties change, so states can easily switch allegiances over time.
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:30 PM
 
Location: Acworth
1,352 posts, read 3,972,838 times
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Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
He carried 47-48% of the vote in the 2008 election. Since the state is becoming ever more diverse, do you think Obama might actually win Georgia in 2012?
Lol pathetic way of asking are there enough blacks in GA to vote for him.

Answer: NO

He will lose GA as well as FL. At this point is is doubtful he will win CA even. Then again, looking at the frontrunners of the opposition........ he just might get 100%
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:35 PM
 
Location: Acworth
1,352 posts, read 3,972,838 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cope1989 View Post
nothing in politics stays the same. In the 1988 election, California, Florida and New Jersey were solidly Republican and West Virginia was solidly democratic. States' demographics change, and political parties change, so states can easily switch allegiances over time.
not really. What changes are the variables.

The people do not change.

Let's take WV which basically has 0% net gain of population. Are you saying that people there just change parties at will? This is not what is happening.

Let's take 100% population. Of that let's say 70% is eligible to vote.

Of those 70, 45% actually do vote.

Out of those 45% 15% will go for one side no matter what, 15% for the other.

That leaves 15% of swingers who always decide the elections. ALWAYS.

so technically, what changes is those few undecided voters who can't ever make up their minds. That's why we have this whole circus called "campaigning". It is all about getting those 15% to swing either way
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Old 02-04-2012, 01:03 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
He carried 47-48% of the vote in the 2008 election. Since the state is becoming ever more diverse, do you think Obama might actually win Georgia in 2012?
The closeness of the 2008 Presidential vote was largely a result of poor turnout on the part of the Republican voters, and high turnout by Democratic voters. In 2010, where turnout was more normal for the state, Statewide races looked like this:

Senate: Johnny Isaakson (R) 58.3%, Mike Thurmond (D) 39%, Chuck Donovan (L) 2.7%

Governor: Nathan Deal (R) 53%, Roy E. Barnes (D) 43%, John H. Monds (L) 4%

The difference between those two races was that Barnes is a fairly centrist Democrat where Thurmond was more solidly left-wing. The real split is here now is about 53% Conservative - 40% Liberal - 7% Moderate.

It's hard to see a scenario where Obama wins Georgia in 2012. It would require higher than normal turnout levels (similar to 2008) by his key demographics most importantly African-American as well as the 18-35 cohort, but it would have to go beyond that to a Republican candidate that significantly depresses turnout here, or perhaps an independent or 3rd party candidate.

While the Latino population of the state has nearly doubled since 2000, a large portion of this population is either under the age of 18 and/ or non-citizens, so the change to the voting population is much more gradual. Unless something shifts unexpectedly, I don't expect to see a Democratic Presidential candidate have a serious chance at carrying the state until 2020 or 2024. Though a Republican candidate that seriously alienates conservative voters or a centrist Democrat that appeals to rural/suburban voters could make it happen sooner as it did with Clinton's victory here in 1992.
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Old 02-04-2012, 01:18 AM
 
4 posts, read 4,905 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cityrover View Post
The people do not change.

Let's take WV which basically has 0% net gain of population. Are you saying that people there just change parties at will?
To some degree actually, yes, they do. It's not something that happens every election, but significant shifts do occur from time such as the large scale movement of African-Americans into the Democratic Party in the 1960s or southern conservatives into the Republican Party in the 1990s.
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Old 02-04-2012, 08:53 AM
 
33,128 posts, read 30,504,784 times
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In a state that was challenging his actual right to even be on the ballot? Yeah right...
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Old 02-04-2012, 11:34 AM
 
Location: Columbus, GA and Brookhaven, GA
4,627 posts, read 6,517,456 times
Reputation: 1316
We can only hope Obama doesn't win GA.
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