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Old 02-06-2012, 10:54 PM
 
110 posts, read 259,036 times
Reputation: 206

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Georgia View Post
Obama will take the following counties:

Bibb
Calhoun
Chatham
Clarke
Clay
Clayton
DeKalb
Daugherty
Fulton
Liberty
Macon
Muscogee
Richmond
Stewart
Talbot

Rest of the state will vote Republican. Some of the above counties will be by thin margin with the exception of Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton.

As far as the national race, it is the GOP's to lose. Obama's radical Keynesian economics is taking a heavy toll on the country with the massive debt and decaying monetary exchange.

The GOP may choke again and this is with the radical right once again going bonkers from the abortion issues and even today with the million mother family council demostrating for JC Penney to fire Ellen DeGenerous for being "gay"

Overall the GOP and DNC have two deadly viruses infesting their bowels. The DNC's issue is the radical left, unfortunately the current group in charge from Pelosi and Reid with Obama. The radical right with the evangelicals and the bedroom police tied with the NeoCons.

Unfortunately, the government and White House has been occupied by one or the other since 1988 and the piper is now wanting paid and all we have is empty pockets and clueless imagination.


ummmmmmmm no. This is not a politics forum. There's a great site called atlas forum where people would be happy to hear all of your astute political observations. There's no need to inject your own political beliefs in this thread, because then it just defeats the purpose.
Demographic trends and previous election results should be the focal point of this thread. So...based on previous elections I would say that Obama will not win Georgia. But based on demographic trends, I would say that Obama will be competitive in Georgia (but he may not win it) and it will be competitive in the future.

The republican share of the white vote in GA has pretty much maxed out at 75%, which is an insanely large amount, but the white share of the population is decreasing pretty quickly, so it makes the state more competitive. I also think that the growth of highly educated individuals to the Atlanta area will help the democrats with the white vote slightly in the future. In 2008, white voters in Alabama went for McCain by almost 90% while in Georgia it was 75-76 percent. If it weren't for Atlanta, we'd probably vote like that, but Atlanta tempers that.

So, with a white vote that has basically maxed out for republicans (as well as declining in significance) and a growing minority vote, Georgia could be purple pretty soon

Oh, and I'd add rockdale, henry, douglas, newton and maybe MAYBE Gwinnett- after all it is majority minority now
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Old 02-07-2012, 01:25 PM
 
Location: Metro Atlanta, GA
471 posts, read 866,870 times
Reputation: 418
Quote:
Originally Posted by cope1989 View Post
ummmmmmmm no. This is not a politics forum. There's a great site called atlas forum where people would be happy to hear all of your astute political observations. There's no need to inject your own political beliefs in this thread, because then it just defeats the purpose.
Demographic trends and previous election results should be the focal point of this thread. So...based on previous elections I would say that Obama will not win Georgia. But based on demographic trends, I would say that Obama will be competitive in Georgia (but he may not win it) and it will be competitive in the future.

The republican share of the white vote in GA has pretty much maxed out at 75%, which is an insanely large amount, but the white share of the population is decreasing pretty quickly, so it makes the state more competitive. I also think that the growth of highly educated individuals to the Atlanta area will help the democrats with the white vote slightly in the future. In 2008, white voters in Alabama went for McCain by almost 90% while in Georgia it was 75-76 percent. If it weren't for Atlanta, we'd probably vote like that, but Atlanta tempers that.

So, with a white vote that has basically maxed out for republicans (as well as declining in significance) and a growing minority vote, Georgia could be purple pretty soon

Oh, and I'd add rockdale, henry, douglas, newton and maybe MAYBE Gwinnett- after all it is majority minority now
Some very astute observations here.

IMHO, Romney is the only Republican candidate that's capable of making it a race with President Obama. Don't really see any of the others defeating him.
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Old 02-07-2012, 02:32 PM
 
32,954 posts, read 30,418,144 times
Reputation: 20925
Quote:
Originally Posted by GRS86 View Post
Some very astute observations here.

IMHO, Romney is the only Republican candidate that's capable of making it a race with President Obama. Don't really see any of the others defeating him.
Agreed.
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:20 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
6,648 posts, read 8,144,202 times
Reputation: 4511
Ignoring the political leanings of otherwise credible academic theories ... aka "radical Keynesian economics," I find this to be a short sighted way of viewing elections at a stat level.

Firstly, these are the counties have many more people in them. More importantly, it really doesn't matter who wins a county. Some of the 'reddest' counties in this state still can vote 1/3 democrat and some of the 'bluest' counties in this state can vote 1/3 republican.

The amount of votes totaled from non-winning counties are not always equal.

What is important is the total number across GA.

The only importance I see to analyzing counties individually is to look for outside trends of why different regions vote the way they do, but that isn't being touched on here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Georgia View Post
Obama will take the following counties:

Bibb
Calhoun
Chatham
Clarke
Clay
Clayton
DeKalb
Daugherty
Fulton
Liberty
Macon
Muscogee
Richmond
Stewart
Talbot

Rest of the state will vote Republican. Some of the above counties will be by thin margin with the exception of Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton.

As far as the national race, it is the GOP's to lose. Obama's radical Keynesian economics is taking a heavy toll on the country with the massive debt and decaying monetary exchange.

The GOP may choke again and this is with the radical right once again going bonkers from the abortion issues and even today with the million mother family council demostrating for JC Penney to fire Ellen DeGenerous for being "gay"

Overall the GOP and DNC have two deadly viruses infesting their bowels. The DNC's issue is the radical left, unfortunately the current group in charge from Pelosi and Reid with Obama. The radical right with the evangelicals and the bedroom police tied with the NeoCons.

Unfortunately, the government and White House has been occupied by one or the other since 1988 and the piper is now wanting paid and all we have is empty pockets and clueless imagination.

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Old 02-08-2012, 08:42 PM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,862 posts, read 15,309,519 times
Reputation: 3576
Quote:
Originally Posted by WanderingImport View Post
Mutiny is correct. These republican nominees are a joke. So much inner party fighting. What can I say though? This is only my opinion.
That's primary season every 4 years. This election is no different. Were you around in 1980? Both parties had a bitter primary fight, yet they both came out for the general election and Reagan kicked Carter's ass.

Remember Dennis Kucinich and Cynthia McKinney in 2008? Both parties have their weirdos who would never win a general election. Happens every cycle. You seem to have a short memory.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WanderingImport View Post
..and in my opinion, the republicans are making Obama look like the lesser of two evils. Just like Kerry did with Bush. We all know how that turned out. Then again, I was shocked by those results and wouldn't be surprised if some kind of conspiracy was going on with that. Ya never know..
And that would be your opinion, but it is not reinforced by any of the polling data, or by the 2010 election. Don't forget that a Presidential election is actually 50 state elections, not a single popular election. On the electoral map right now, Obama has a tough road, especially after the 2010 census and the updated apportionment.
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Old 02-09-2012, 02:53 PM
 
3,317 posts, read 4,879,259 times
Reputation: 2013
Intrade has Obama at slightly above 60% to be elected, which is up ten percentage points from a couple months ago. So basically a coinflip, says the smart money.

Of course, he'll lose Georgia. But the Democrats will start being able to at least compete in 2016, and have a reasonably good chance of winning in 2020 and thereafter.
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Old 02-10-2012, 01:05 PM
 
Location: Georgia
5,845 posts, read 4,722,274 times
Reputation: 3535
I think this thread has run its course.

Unsubscribing.
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Old 02-11-2012, 11:53 AM
 
5,102 posts, read 6,210,160 times
Reputation: 3116
atlantagreg I was responding to a comment. I didn't interject politics into this thread.
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Old 02-11-2012, 07:55 PM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,862 posts, read 15,309,519 times
Reputation: 3576
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeP View Post
atlantagreg I was responding to a comment. I didn't interject politics into this thread.

Well I sure as hell did. How do you ask the question which is the title for the thread and not "interject politics" into it?
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Old 02-12-2012, 09:30 AM
 
Location: Ilkley, West Yorkshire, UK
23 posts, read 51,882 times
Reputation: 27
My comment comes from the perspective of a born-and-bred Georgian who has lived in England since the 1980s, but believe me, I do keep up with what's going on back home!

Anyway, my take on it is that the Republicans will probably once again take Georgia in 2012 because that's the way the state has been mostly trending for a good while. On the other hand, unlike some of you I'm not so sure that will be the case if Romney is the GOP candidate. Why? Because of the distrust that Georgia's fundamentalist Christians have of Mormonism. Using my own very Republican family as an example, my father and stepmother -- who both actually campaigned enthusiastically for George W. Bush in Oglethorpe County and in the Athens area -- would no more vote for a Mormon than they would flap their arms and think that would help them fly. My family is deeply religious and while they're active politically on a grassroots level and are staunch Republicans, when push comes to shove they'd worry that voting for a Mormon would put their immortal souls in peril. I'm not kidding about this either, and I know that "my people" are not unique in feeling this way. I do believe that if Romney is the GOP nominee, a lot of Christian voters will just sit the 2012 election out.

If either Gingrich or Santorum gets the nomination, they'll take Georgia easily, again because of the religion factor. Fundamentalist Christians are a massively powerful voting bloc, but I just don't think they're feeling the love for Mitt Romney. They're always going to put what they feel biblically way ahead of what they think politically.

It will be interesting to see how things play out, to say the least.
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