Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Stone Mountain, White, Martin: percent, stone, prevent)

[DreamerD]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

It's really hard to say what is going to happen on Election Day because we're in uncharted territory when it comes to turnout. Usually younger people and minorities vote toward the end of early voting and on election day but this year high numbers have already voted early. Do they continue to vote at the same pace or have all of their votes been cannibalized from the folks who would otherwise vote on Election Day.

If past trends hold, I would assume we'd get larger numbers of young folk, but I would be reluctant to assume that everything will happen as it has in the past.






Yes. She put in millions into GOTV and I think it's a safe assumption that it's paid off big for her. Turnout is up all over the state but Metro Atlanta's influence in early voting so far has been outsized.


modcut

I don't remember the last time I've seen so many go vote. As for young people, I'm seeing on how many apps young people telling others to go vote. I'm not saying that this will have a big impact on the youth actually voting but I haven't seen people so adamant about telling their friends/classmates/ etc. to vote.

[DreamerD]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

https://politics.myajc.com/news/stat...nN0vltRCOduRI/

The last AJC poll had Abrams up by statistically insignificant hair. 46.9% to Kemp's 46.7 with a margin of error of 3%.

However, the really good news for Abrams is that this poll assumes that white voters will make up 63.5% of the vote. Current early voter numbers have whites making up barely 58% of the vote. Also good is that Abrams is polling at 27% among whites. She only needs 25% to win without a runoff.

That would be awesome. I really don't want to have to vote again and remind others to do the same.

[DreamerD]

Originally Posted by n3w5_junk13

I am going to go out on a limb and make some bold predictions based on my assessment of the data and some assumptions based on polls and previous elections. See the screenshot below of my estimated breakdown of the early vote which will likely end at 2M at the end of today with another roughly 1.5M to 2.2M to vote on Election Day (Yes, presidential turnout levels). I predict that Abrams will win without a runoff and GA-6 and GA-7 will flip from Republican to Democratic if turnout on Election Day is largely similar to already casted votes.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/7...922/7UFjRm.png

If these numbers bear out, Georgia will make national news for such a seismic and dramatic political reversal. Headlines will be "Stacey Abrams becomes first black woman to govern a US state" and "Lucy McBath becomes first black woman to represent Georgia in Congress".

On a personal note, I am an avid supporter of Abrams, so I may be a bit biased and optimistic about her chances. LOL. I waited 5 hours for tickets to the Obama/Abrams rally tonight and sadly got none, but there is A LOT of energy on the Democratic side based on anecdotal evidence. I believe Abrams strong GOTV efforts across all 159 counties is pulling Georgia into battleground territory sooner than many predicted.

I'm very excited at the prospect of two women running the state/representing us in Congress. And the fact that they're black...I feel it would send a strong message that change is coming. It will become more rare for people to feel confident saying that this is their state/their country and such and such do not belong in it.



With Georgia being a Southern state at that, I hope that this will inspire voters around the nation to vote for who they want to win and not who they think will win. People tend to associate the South with racism and for two black women to hold such positions at the same time...

[DreamerD]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

Georgia political website GeorgiaPol.com put a post up at 4:34pm on Friday reporting that Georgia Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Ted Metz put up a post on his Facebook page on Friday afternoon offering to drop out of the gubernatorial race in exchange for payment of his medical bills.



"Libertarian Candidate for Governor Appears to Offer to Drop Out for Medical Bill Payments" (GeorgiaPol.com)
https://www.georgiapol.com/2018/11/0...lw7NGF0gA9TlO8

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

LOL. This is one of the weirdest stunts I’ve seen a politician pull. I kind of see the point he’s trying to make, I think, but still...

I really would like to see more third party candidates to give voters more choice but this guy is getting on my last nerve.

Originally Posted by AnsleyPark

Do what?????????????????

Well...medical bills are a force to be reckoned with. LOL.

[Born 2 Roll]

Record-setting amounts of cash are being raised in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race.

As of Thursday, November 1st, former Georgia House Minority Leader and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams reported raising $22 million so far, while Georgia Secretary of State and Republican gubernatorial nominee Brian Kemp reported raising $21 million so far in the 2018 cycle.

Overall, $65 million has been raised by all gubernatorial candidates during the 2018 cycle, making the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race the most expensive gubernatorial race ever in Georgia's history.

Leader Abrams has raised almost $6 million since September 30th alone while Secretary Kemp has raised $4 million during the same time period.

Of the $4 million that Leader Abrams has raised from donors giving more than $100 to her campaign, more than $2.7 million has come from out-of-state sources, something which has attracted heavy criticism from Republicans.

Of the $4 million total that Secretary Kemp has raised during the same time period, all but $455,000 has come from donors inside of the state of Georgia. Most of the donations that Kemp has received have come from Capitol-connected interests like lobbyists, special-interests political action committees (PACs) and big institutional donors.

"Abrams reports raising $22 million in Georgia governor’s race, Kemp $21 million" (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regi...Gs3bT62K8dB9O/

[atltechdude]

Another court loss for Kemp's effort to prevent as many people from voting as possible.

https://thehill.com/regulation/court...ch-voting-case

[atltechdude]

Originally Posted by n3w5_junk13

I predict that Abrams will win without a runoff

That's the only way she can win. If it goes to a runoff Kemp is a lock. The Democratic base simply does not turn out for special elections. It takes months of organizing and a lot of money and effort just to get them to the polls on election day for a major general election.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by atltechdude

That's the only way she can win. If it goes to a runoff Kemp is a lock. The Democratic base simply does not turn out for special elections. It takes months of organizing and a lot of money and effort just to get them to the polls on election day for a major general election.

I totally agree. All the emails I get from her campaign stress the need to avoid a runoff.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by n3w5_junk13

I predict that Abrams will win without a runoff

Originally Posted by atltechdude

That's the only way she can win. If it goes to a runoff Kemp is a lock. The Democratic base simply does not turn out for special elections. It takes months of organizing and a lot of money and effort just to get them to the polls on election day for a major general election.

Those are really good points that the Democratic base often simply does not turnout for special elections.

Though, if this race were to go to a runoff, I think that this situation likely would be different and likely would be far from a lock for Kemp and the GOP.

That is because there would be far fewer races going on nationally after Election Day (November 6th) and a runoff in a closely contested governor's race in a fast-growing state in Georgia that appears to be trending very heavily towards the Democrats demographically would attract even that much more attention and funding from the national media and Democratic/progressive donors than the race is already getting before a possible runoff.

National Democratic and progressive interests already salivate at the prospect of potentially being able to flip a fast-growing state like Georgia (and its 16 electoral college votes in presidential elections) from the deep-red column to the blue column... Much like the state of Virginia that recently flipped from deep-red to blue on the strength of explosive population growth from moderate and progressive voters in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington D.C.

Democratic and progressive money and organization would flood into Georgia in a serious and sustained attempt to flip the state from deep-red to blue during a gubernatorial runoff campaign that likely would be the most watched political contest in the country during the month of November and the first 3 days of December.

As much of a slugfest as this race is now, it most likely would be even more so (in the form of an epic political war) during an extremely high-stakes four-week runoff race that more than likely would be the most-watched political contest in the country after most other elections in the country had finished after Election Day.

[n3w5_junk13]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

Those are really good points that the Democratic base often simply does not turnout for special elections.

Though, if this race were to go to a runoff, I think that this situation likely would be different and likely would be far from a lock for Kemp and the GOP.

That is because there would be far fewer races going on nationally after Election Day (November 6th) and a runoff in a closely contested governor's race in a fast-growing state in Georgia that appears to be trending very heavily towards the Democrats demographically would attract even that much more attention and funding from the national media and Democratic/progressive donors than the race is already getting before a possible runoff.

National Democratic and progressive interests already salivate at the prospect of potentially being able to flip a fast-growing state like Georgia (and its 16 electoral college votes in presidential elections) from the deep-red column to the blue column... Much like the state of Virginia that recently flipped from deep-red to blue on the strength of explosive population growth from moderate and progressive voters in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington D.C.

Democratic and progressive money and organization would flood into Georgia in a serious and sustained attempt to flip the state from deep-red to blue during a gubernatorial runoff campaign that likely would be the most watched political contest in the country during the month of November and the first 3 days of December.

As much of a slugfest as this race is now, it most likely would be even more so (in the form of an epic political war) during an extremely high-stakes four-week runoff race that more than likely would be the most-watched political contest in the country after most other elections in the country had finished after Election Day.

I'd agree with all of this. Initially, I thought a runoff would not bode well for Democrat Stacey Abrams in Georgia, but for all of the reasons you said ---- this time would be different. With so much enthusiasm and energy on her side, I believe that democratic voters in the state would passionately show up and show out.