Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Atlanta, Columbus, Savannah: suburban, rated, money)

[AnsleyPark]

Originally Posted by Iconographer

I agree. It appears that a light turnout would favor Kemp, and if Cagle's moderate based is energized enough to try and thwart a Kemp win, I don't sense it.

While Mr. Kemp mortifies me, I believe Ms. Adams stands a better chance if Mr. Kemp is the Republican nominee.

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by AnsleyPark

While Mr. Kemp mortifies me, I believe Ms. Adams stands a better chance if Mr. Kemp is the Republican nominee.

Absolutely, which is why I'd like to see a Kemp win in July.
What Abrams needs is some business endorsements; that's who she needs to court right now. And frankly, I think she needs to play down her populist economic message for now as well.

"We must build a Georgia where no one has to work more than one full-time job to make ends meet. A fair economy means investing in diverse businesses, fighting for equality in the workplace, lifting families out of poverty, and ensuring access to affordable healthcare. Fairness is the backbone of an economy that eliminates poverty and fosters prosperity for every family."

https://staceyabrams.com/vision/economy/

While I don't necessarily disagree with it, I fear that some business leaders may interpret this as an invitation to unionization, increased regulation and a rebuke of the state's "right to work" policies. She'll need them in her camp come November.

Good luck, Stacey!

[Forhall]

Originally Posted by AnsleyPark

While Mr. Kemp mortifies me, I believe Ms. Adams stands a better chance if Mr. Kemp is the Republican nominee.

But it's a risky game. If Kemp does win, I'd be MUCH more terrified for our state.

[autolycus25]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

Based on the latest polling, it looks like Cagle is headed for a loss. I don’t see him turning moderate GOP voters in numbers large enough to pull this out. Kemp’s voters are motivated. https://politics.myajc.com/blog/poli...wspaper_email&

Cagle misplayed things after the primary. He should have done everything he could to solidify the moderate and pro-business, pro-growth base. Instead he seems to have tried to make himself look acceptable to the same voters Kemp already had locked up. In doing so, he’s made himself far less acceptable to the base he could have fully dominated vs Kemp.

[jpdivola]

Originally Posted by Forhall

But it's a risky game. If Kemp does win, I'd be MUCH more terrified for our state.

Yeah, it reminds me of the arguments made about Trump being the GOP nominee.

At the end of the day, the Republican is likely to win in GA either way.

VA transitioned from solid GOP to purple/light blue via boring moderate Dems (who won over moderates/disaffected republicans in NoVa) and extremist republicans (who drove up liberal turnout).

Every state is different, but the Dems are already running an untested high risk/reward strategy by running a boldly progressive candidate in a changing, but still red state.

[demonta4]

Originally Posted by jpdivola

Yeah, it reminds me of the arguments made about Trump being the GOP nominee.

At the end of the day, the Republican is likely to win in GA either way.

VA transitioned from solid GOP to purple/light blue via boring moderate Dems (who won over moderates/disaffected republicans in NoVa) and extremist republicans (who drove up liberal turnout).

Every state is different, but the Dems are already running an untested high risk/reward strategy by running a boldly progressive candidate in a changing, but still red state.

Trump winning has more to do with him being populist than him being right wing. If Kemp wins we’d have two populists, except one is reasonable and one is crazy. It’s the Democrats job to take advantage of that by motivating their base. Abrams will attract more people than Clinton could.

[Forhall]

Originally Posted by demonta4

Trump winning has more to do with him being populist than him being right wing. If Kemp wins we’d have two populists, except one is reasonable and one is crazy. It’s the Democrats job to take advantage of that by motivating their base. Abrams will attract more people than Clinton could.

Kemp doesn't seem populist at all? He just seems like a nutcase who is more concerned with social issues over anything else.

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by Forhall

Kemp doesn't seem populist at all? He just seems like a nutcase who is more concerned with social issues over anything else.

Trump, Abrams and Kemp have all taken a Populist approach to their respective campaigns.

pop·u·list
ˈpäpyələst/Submit
noun
1.
a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.
adjective
1.
relating to a populist or populists.
"a populist leader"

It's just that Abrams and Kemp are making an appeal to two very different mindsets. At the risk of oversimplification, I see it as one trying to embrace change, the other trying to resist it.

[bryantm3]

Originally Posted by AnsleyPark

While Mr. Kemp mortifies me, I believe Ms. Adams stands a better chance if Mr. Kemp is the Republican nominee.

this reminds me of the "conventional wisdom" that trump would be the easier candidate for a democrat to knock over.

[Forhall]

Another poll today has them tied 45-45.

I don't know who is weaker - Cagle won't inspire conservatives to come out, and there's no senate or presidential race so he could be weaker. Kemp will win on turnout for his base but weaker on wooing independents and moderate Republicans in metro ATL.

I hope Cagle wins. Kemp is just way too scary, and a better fit for a state like Mississippi or Alabama. I would be so embarrassed if he won, and he would push religious liberty bills and destroy so many industries. At least Cagle can pretend to be a normal human being and probably listen to business leaders. I don't want to be worried that an Abrams slip up will lead us to electing a Bible thumping, gun toting redneck to lead our state.