Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Atlanta, Douglas: military, opportunity, young)

[demonta4]

Originally Posted by citidata18

Is there a reason why you didn't try and go to the polling place to vote?

I’m at college 200 miles away from my polling place in Atlanta.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by BELMO45

That doesn’t seem correct to me. She trails by 64-65K. I can’t see how a trail of 48-50K puts him under 50%. That’s a pretty darn big margin

In GA, a candidate needs at least 50% of the vote +1 vote to avoid a runoff. 3,917,299 votes were cast in the Governor's Race total. 50% of that number is 1,958,043.5. Last I checked, Kemp was at 1,971, 831. 1,971,931-1,958,043=13,788 votes.

ETA: Actually, my math is wrong. If Abrams nets 13, 788 votes, that number would also increase the total vote total. So it's more like in the neighborhood of 28-30K Abrams needs to net.

That seems to be a tall order, but at the same time, Kemp is not declaring victory.

[DaBurgh]

Not sure if this is correct, but here is some math


so far there have been 3,917,299 total votes counted * as of this post (source below)


Kemp has 1,972,278
to get him above 50%, plus 1 vote then:
take his number of votes times 2 and add 1=
1972278 times 2 = 3,944,556 + 1 = 3,944,557 this is the number of total votes that would need to be cast to bring kemps total down to 50% given his current vote total


3944557
3917299 -
27258 this is the number of votes that still need to be cast for anyone but Kemp in order to have a runoff





like I said no idea if this is right - As more votes are counted, these numbers change




https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...e/ga/governor/

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by demonta4

I didn’t vote because my absentee ballot wasn’t delivered on time even though I sent the application to Fulton County on October 23. I’m really disappointed in our election system.

That's a shame.

Originally Posted by jeoff

I am wary of what Kemp may do, but I think Governor Deal did a very good job of putting what was best for Georgia ahead of ideology, and I believe that Stacey Abrams has said as much.

Yes, I think even Democrats respect Deal even if they don't like his politics. Gov. Deal was a statesman with excellent leadership skills. He was able to do what was best for Georgia even when it was not something his base would like. He was also able to effectively work with Democrats for the good of the state--Kasim Reed, etc.

I think back to the whole SnowJam debacle where Deal took a lot of heat for his tepid response to the snowstorm. Deal took total responsibility for his role in it and since then has fixed the problems. He has showed a great deal of preparedness and judgment in his handling of disasters since then.

Unfortunately, I don't think Kemp has those same qualities that made Deal so great. I have never seen Kemp take any kind of accountability for his mistakes. I have never seen him take initiative to fix things with our voting system. He is very polarizing and I can't see him working with Democrats like Deal did.

Casey Cagle was not in Deal's league either, but I think he didn't have quite as many shortcomings as Kemp.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by DaBurgh

Not sure if this is correct, but here is some math


so far there have been 3,917,299 total votes counted * as of this post (source below)


Kemp has 1,972,278
to get him above 50%, plus 1 vote then:
take his number of votes times 2 and add 1=
1972278 times 2 = 3,944,556 + 1 = 3,944,557 this is the number of total votes that would need to be cast to bring kemps total down to 50% given his current vote total

ETA: My math is wrong. Need to multiply the final result above by 2 since any vote that Abrams nets will add to the total vote total. My bad. So she needs to net about 28-30K votes.

3944557
3917299 -
27258 this is the number of votes that still need to be cast for anyone but Kemp in order to have a runoff





like I said no idea if this is right - As more votes are counted, these numbers change




https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...e/ga/governor/

You have the right idea, but instead of multiplying Kemp's vote percentage you need to divide the total votes cast by 2 and then add 1. The gap is the difference between that number and Kemp's total.

ETA: My math is wrong. I needed to multiply my final result by 2 since any vote Abrams nets will also add to the vote total. You were right. My bad.

[gentlearts]

As of right now, Abrams has not conceded and Kemp is ahead by 15,000 votes. Not sure whether there are still votes to be counted or not.

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by gentlearts

As of right now, Abrams has not conceded and Kemp is ahead by 15,000 votes. Not sure whether there are still votes to be counted or not.

What's the current margin?

[citidata18]

BTW, very fitting that we get a thunderstorm today, lol.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by LTCM

It's funny, they said the exact same thing about deal when he was elected. About how extreme he was going to be. They will also say it about the next Republican governor elected, and the next, and the next and the next...

Except this one has ran on a campaign of far-right fire and fury. Nathan Deal will look like a saint in comparison.

[BELMO45]

Originally Posted by gentlearts

As of right now, Abrams has not conceded and Kemp is ahead by 15,000 votes. Not sure whether there are still votes to be counted or not.

He’s ahead by way more than that. It’s still 65,000 with no updates since 130 now.