Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Atlanta, Clayton, White: crimes, health care, transit)

[CaliDreaming01]

https://www.myajc.com/news/state--re...wyOmxX4pS6pZL/

OK Cagle is going hard on putting out the idea that Kemp will not beat Abrams in November. Sour grapes? GOP party officials are demanding he walk back the statement, but he refuses. Why do they care so much if he's just a bitter loser? What's really going on here???

[Born 2 Roll]

Some recent polling in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race...

On Thursday, July 19th, a FOX 5/Opinion Savvy Poll was released showing Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp with a commanding lead over Georgia Lt. Governor Casey Cagle in the GOP gubernatorial primary runoff race in the aftermath of Secretary Kemp's endorsement from President Donald Trump and in the aftermath of the continuing fallout from the secret recording of Lt. Governor Cagle by former GOP gubernatorial primary candidate Clay Tippins.

The FOX 5/Opinion Savvy Poll (which was conducted on July 17th and 18th) showed Secretary Kemp with a 55%-37% lead over Lt. Gov. Cagle in the GOP gubernatorial primary runoff race.

"New poll: Kemp has big lead over Cagle – especially following Trump endorsement" (InsiderAdvantage)
New poll: Kemp has big lead over Cagle

"New FOX 5-Opinion Savvy poll shows Brian Kemp leading race for GOP nomination for Governor" (FOX 5 Atlanta)
New FOX 5-Opinion Savvy poll shows Brian Kemp leading race for GOP nomination for Governor - Story | WAGA

[Born 2 Roll]

On Friday, July 20th, an 11Alive/SurveyUSA Poll was released showing Secretary Kemp with a 40%-34% lead over Lt. Gov. Cagle in the GOP gubernatorial primary runoff race. Of note in this poll was that 26% of the respondents were undecided at such a late point in the race.

The poll also showed that both GOP gubernatorial primary runoff candidates potentially would compete in a close race in hypothetical general election matchups with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams.

In a hypothetical general election matchup between Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and former Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, Cagle leads Abrams 45%-43% with 12% undecided.

While in a hypothetical general election matchup between Secretary Kemp and former Minority Leader Abrams, Kemp leads Abrams 46%-44% with 10% undecided.

"11Alive poll: Kemp, Cagle in close race with many GOP voters still undecided...
The poll indicates whichever Republican wins Tuesday will have a close race with Democrat Stacey Abrams in November." (11Alive WXIA-TV Atlanta)
https://www.11alive.com/article/news...d/85-575849113

Related: "President Trump endorses Brian Kemp in nation's most watched governor's race" (11Alive WXIA-TV Atlanta, 18 July 2018)
https://www.11alive.com/article/news...e/85-575177973

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by bu2

Tweet is kind of funny. Tippins sounds like somebody you can't trust at anything. I would never do business with somebody like that, let alone trust in politics.

Bottom line with Tippins is that nobody likes a snitch. The circumstances under which he obtained said information has probably damaged his fledgling political career irrevocably. Who would want to work with such a faithless person?

[SEAandATL]

Originally Posted by atltechdude

Disagree. Closed primaries encourage even more radical choices that we have to choose between in Nov, rather than allowing people of the opposing viewpoint to tilt the primary toward more moderate candidates.

I am left leaning but I'll be voting Cagle in this runoff because he is less Trumpian than Kemp.

I usually vote in the R primary since the D nomination is usually a foregone conclusion (as it was again this year) and in GA the R primary is usually where the eventual gov is decided.

I'm the same way. I'll be voting for Cagle just to vote against Kemp. I have a bad feeling though because this is the Trump era with much of the GOP being Alt-right. They are like the new founding fathers of America, a nation reborn.

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by SEAandATL

I'm the same way. I'll be voting for Cagle just to vote against Kemp. I have a bad feeling though because this is the Trump era with much of the GOP being Alt-right. They are like the new founding fathers of America, a nation reborn.

Seems to me that the more negative publicity and criticism that is heaped upon Trump, the more galvanized and strident his base becomes. I think this translates to a lot of other Alt-right politicians as well, including Kemp. This may well have an impact on turnout, as it clearly has had an effect on the polls.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by bu2

Tweet is kind of funny. Tippins sounds like somebody you can't trust at anything. I would never do business with somebody like that, let alone trust in politics.

Originally Posted by Iconographer

Bottom line with Tippins is that nobody likes a snitch. The circumstances under which he obtained said information has probably damaged his fledgling political career irrevocably. Who would want to work with such a faithless person?

Both of these comments raise an important point... That in the aftermath of the secret recording of the comments by Lt. Governor Cagle, there are many people that are saying that they do not want to do business with Clay Tippins because they do not trust him anymore.

The aftermath of the secret recording of Cagle may have not only damaged Tippins' potential future political prospects but may have also done some damage to Tippins' reputation as a private businessman.

Originally Posted by atltechdude

Disagree. Closed primaries encourage even more radical choices that we have to choose between in Nov, rather than allowing people of the opposing viewpoint to tilt the primary toward more moderate candidates.

I am left leaning but I'll be voting Cagle in this runoff because he is less Trumpian than Kemp.

I usually vote in the R primary since the D nomination is usually a foregone conclusion (as it was again this year) and in GA the R primary is usually where the eventual gov is decided.

Originally Posted by SEAandATL

I'm the same way. I'll be voting for Cagle just to vote against Kemp. I have a bad feeling though because this is the Trump era with much of the GOP being Alt-right. They are like the new founding fathers of America, a nation reborn.

atltechdude's and SEAandATL's comments also raise an important point... That even though Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp may come across to many moderates and progressives as being extreme in his conservatism, Kemp will still be the early-on odds-on favorite to win the Governor's race in this Republican-dominated state should he win the GOP gubernatorial primary runoff race as is currently expected after receiving an endorsement by President Donald Trump.

Though, with Democratic gubernatorial nominee and former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams appearing to have a significant national profile and with Abrams vowing to put Georgia's fast-changing demographics in play during the general election campaign, Secretary Kemp may not necessarily have as significant of an advantage in the 2018 gubernatorial general election race as other Republican gubernatorial nominees (governors Sonny Perdue and Nathan Deal) have had during the 2006, 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial election cycles.

But in a still-Republican-dominated state in Georgia that Donald Trump won by five points on the way to winning the 2016 Presidential Election, Secretary of State Brian Kemp will have an undeniable noticeable advantage with his ability to pull a large number of conservative voters to the polls in October (early voting) and November (Election Day voting) with his strong full-throated endorsement from President Trump in a state where Trump remains extremely popular with a dominant part of the electorate.

Though, one should not be surprised if Stacey Abrams and the Democrats are able to keep the general election campaign close and even get as close as within about five points or so to the Republican nominee which looks like it will be Brian Kemp right now.

[chiatldal]

Originally Posted by Iconographer

Seems to me that the more negative publicity and criticism that is heaped upon Trump, the more galvanized and strident his base becomes. I think this translates to a lot of other Alt-right politicians as well, including Kemp. This may well have an impact on turnout, as it clearly has had an effect on the polls.

I don't buy this. And see it commonly used by conservatives. It basically saying if you don't support Trump it would help Trump, ) it bs cause if don't go against Trump and support the opposition Trump win by default anyways. So yes you can criticize Trump, what he does fuels Democrats. It may work in GOP primaries but with different parties no. The party suppose to have different views.

As far a the Gubernatorial Race I'm pessimistic the nuttier candidate will win the GOP race. Adams is a only slightly behind both in polls which is good thing because a Democrat has been in striking distance of a Republican in for ever.

Adams needs to really 1. energize Democrats and diverse area, black women played a huge role in flipping Alabama senate seat. 2. Go to conservative white, She won't win those counties but by meeting with them she can reverse some of dehumanization of Democrat create by GOP rhetoric in those counties.

Cause a black woman who a Democrat she should already know what GOP is going to try, they going try to paint her as stokely carmichael, and louis farrakhan, To create anger with White conservatives. This while Kemp has already tried to create this hickish persona with guns and profiling talking minortioes up in pick up trucks. So she has really energize the Democrat base but reach out to moderate and white conservatives to reverse the atmosphere she knows especially Kemp wants.

[Pemgin]

I hope Abrams intends to spend as much time in south Georgia as possible. That's where this campaign will be won or lost.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by jsvh

What problems do you think open primaries caused? Do you seriously think someone with sympathies for white supremacists doing well in the deep south is somehow caused by the open primaries? No. In fact, that open primary likely helped to get them defeated. White supremacist have been the winners in other deep south elections that have partisan primaries.

Our partisan system is very broken and needs to stop being supported by the electoral process with these closed party-only primaries that produce more extreme candidates. Just look at this Republican Gubernatorial primary cycle here in GA, they literally said they were trying to out-crazy each other.

Closed primaries are the best at eliciting the opinions of the bases. Open primaries are a little better at eliciting the opinions of the general public.

Thank God that we are not a caucus state. Caucuses are AWFUL.