Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Norwood: system, residents, democratic)

[BELMO45]

Originally Posted by stoxdiamond

How trustworthy are these polls, everyone polled Hillary to have a landslide victory and we saw what happened. I'll believe it when I see it. Flip 30 pages back in this thread and we were talking about how Abrams would need a miracle to have the turnout to beat Kemp based on demographics.

I still cannot see conservative moderates voting for Abrams, at best they will stay home, but conservatives don't abstain from the polls.

Historically when states are transitioning from red to blue or blue to red the polls tend to mislead in the transitioning direction for a good 5 to 10 years leading up to when the transition finally occurs. We certainly saw that in North Carolina and Georgia with the 2016 election and don’t forget in 2008 and 2012 samples hinted that Iowa could go red and it did not but then it finally did in this last election. Iowa also had a few busted Senate and house seats during that period too where the GOP candidate was either tied or leading slightly in polls and lost. Arizona has seen this too where in the last 6 years some democratic candidates for various offices looked like they’d win or be close and lost by 3-5 points

[bu2]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

Fascinating poll.

Here's a link to the crosstabs for the poll. https://s3.amazonaws.com/ajc-isabeta...ll+Results.pdf

There are many good signs in this poll for Abrams. Kemp's unfavorable ratings are higher in general than for Abrams. The attacks on her being too liberal and the debt shaming are not resonating with voters.

She has higher favorability among voters who identify as independents than Kemp--48.7 versus 30.7. She is not doing too badly among conservative-leaning moderates either. Kemp's unfavorable rating among conservative-leaning moderates is actually higher than Abrams'.

Also, Georgia Republicans need to find some way to keep Trump out of this race. They literally need to lock him away until after the election. Among conservative leaning moderates, only 16% said Trump's support made them more likely to vote for a candidate, versus nearly 32% that said it made them less likely to support a candidate. I don't even have to type what the results were for voters who were less conservative.

Only 2% more Republicans?
55% female?
Only 12% high school or less and 64% college grad?

You can't say this necessarily skews one way or the other, but its clearly not even close to a representative sample.

Newspaper polls everywhere tend to be pretty amateurish.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by stoxdiamond

How trustworthy are these polls, everyone polled Hillary to have a landslide victory and we saw what happened. I'll believe it when I see it. Flip 30 pages back in this thread and we were talking about how Abrams would need a miracle to have the turnout to beat Kemp based on demographics.

I still cannot see conservative moderates voting for Abrams, at best they will stay home, but conservatives don't abstain from the polls.

The polls had Hillary leading, but she never cracked 50% in any one of them. There were definitely warning signs there that I think the pundits ignored.

I agree with you that I don't think a significant number of conservative moderates will vote for Abrams. What is more realistic is that large numbers of these moderates are going to be very unenthusiastic about voting for Kemp and just stay home. Moderate Republican voters staying home played a key role in Doug Jones ekeing out a razor thin win in Alabama Senate race.

If moderates don't show up for Kemp, that is going to be the difference between winning or losing for him. Abrams strategy has never primarily been about getting moderate Republicans to vote for her. It's always been about mobilizing her base while maintaining an aura of acceptability for those disaffected moderate Republicans .

Thus far, Abrams has succeeded in firing up her base and getting out them out to the polls, as evidenced by the record-breaking increase of Democrats voting in the primaries--over 200,000 more Democrats voted in the 2018 gubernatorial primary than in 2014 and was only 50K short of matching the number of Republicans voting in the primary. In fact, Abrams received more votes in her primary win than Kemp did in the runoff against Cagle. Last election Jason Carter lost the governorship by about 200K votes, so those extra 200K fired-up Democrats means that this election is guaranteed to be the closest gubernatorial election we've had in GA in over 20 years.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by bu2

Only 2% more Republicans?
55% female?
Only 12% high school or less and 64% college grad?

You can't say this necessarily skews one way or the other, but its clearly not even close to a representative sample.

Newspaper polls everywhere tend to be pretty amateurish.

I don't know anything about how reputable the pollster was who did this poll for the AJC, but the results of it are exactly in line with polls conducted by very reputable firms. Every poll I've seen in this race have Abrams and Kemp in a virtual tie within the margin of error.

[jhtrico1850]

Originally Posted by bu2

Only 2% more Republicans?
55% female?
Only 12% high school or less and 64% college grad?

You can't say this necessarily skews one way or the other, but its clearly not even close to a representative sample.

Newspaper polls everywhere tend to be pretty amateurish.

http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutB...s_nov_2012.pdf

From the State of Georgia, 2,014,072 black and white females voted in the 2012 general election. 1,553,560 black and white men voted. That's 3,567,632 total, with women comprising 56% and men 44%. 2012 was not unusual for Georgia. Women typically make a bigger share of the electorate than men.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...-white-n575456

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by stoxdiamond

How trustworthy are these polls, everyone polled Hillary to have a landslide victory

This myth again?

[bu2]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

I don't know anything about how reputable the pollster was who did this poll for the AJC, but the results of it are exactly in line with polls conducted by very reputable firms. Every poll I've seen in this race have Abrams and Kemp in a virtual tie within the margin of error.

The last poll that came out had an equal number of HRC and Trump voters at 43%. Trump got 52% of the vote in Georgia. That one may have been by a reputable firm, but it was pure garbage and heavily titled towards Abrams.

Like I said, its hard to tell if this one is tilted one way or the other, but its not representative.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by jhtrico1850

http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutB...s_nov_2012.pdf

From the State of Georgia, 2,014,072 black and white females voted in the 2012 general election. 1,553,560 black and white men voted. That's 3,567,632 total, with women comprising 56% and men 44%. 2012 was not unusual for Georgia. Women typically make a bigger share of the electorate than men.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...-white-n575456

Your graphs don't agree with your numbers.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by bu2

Your graphs don't agree with your numbers.

. The graph represents the U.s. electorate, not Georgia—those numbers are included in a separate link. . Even there women still make up a larger proportion of the electorate.

Originally Posted by bu2

The last poll that came out had an equal number of HRC and Trump voters at 43%. Trump got 52% of the vote in Georgia. That one may have been by a reputable firm, but it was pure garbage and heavily titled towards Abrams.

Like I said, its hard to tell if this one is tilted one way or the other, but its not representative.

Maybe the pollster recognized that Democratic turnout was depressed in that election because HRC was such a polarizing candidate. They also generally ask questions about how likely a voter is to vote. No question Democrats have the enthusiasm edge here so I don’t see the use of equal number of Trump and Clinton voters as a huge issue.

[atltechdude]

The national enthusiasm advantage Democrats have in this election is the only reason Abrams has any chance, but she will still lose imo. I truly hope I am wrong.