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Old 05-23-2020, 04:11 PM
 
113 posts, read 31,351 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markjames68 View Post
But that’s the comparison being made here....
Yeah, I’m sorry. I missed that post. Still ridiculous on their part to compare NYC to Atlanta.
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Old 05-23-2020, 04:22 PM
 
1,318 posts, read 534,395 times
Reputation: 1096
If there is a second or even third wave coming we completely just wasted months staying at home. It would be all for nothing. Those who believe in more waves coming need to research the science of Herd Immunity. We also need to look at what Sweden did as that would be the only path forward for a second or third wave. Sheltering in place in a second or third wave scenario is extremely counterproductive.
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Old 05-23-2020, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Columbus, GA and Brookhaven, GA
4,616 posts, read 6,502,154 times
Reputation: 1273
Quote:
Originally Posted by ronricks View Post
If there is a second or even third wave coming we completely just wasted months staying at home. It would be all for nothing. Those who believe in more waves coming need to research the science of Herd Immunity. We also need to look at what Sweden did as that would be the only path forward for a second or third wave. Sheltering in place in a second or third wave scenario is extremely counterproductive.
Exactly.
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Old 05-23-2020, 05:09 PM
 
Location: Columbus, GA
973 posts, read 458,950 times
Reputation: 670
There's no "ifs" about it. The second wave is happening and that's what the DPH website is proving. Not believing that means not believing your own eyes. There should be no debating the fact.



The months were wasted, but we didn't waste them. The government should have been utilizing that time to greatly expand testing, tracing capabilities, and emergency medical manufacturing, and to promote and require best practices such as wearing masks while in public. That is blending what the federal response should have been with the state response, but the state could have done much more than it did, especially with the later issue.

Staying at home was supposed to flatten the curve AND to buy time for the response to mature. We accomplished the first goal, but gave up on the second part, meaning we've likely made the first goal's accomplishment only temporary. Claiming that the only path forward is Sweden's model is *******s. The differences in societal culture and public health alone make that an extremely deadly proposition. Sweden's death rate for the US would mean already 150,000 deaths and business as usual until herd immunity numbers are reached means over 3 million deaths.

Wearing face masks and limiting contact and time with large groups are the bare minimum needs. Increased testing and tracing should be the standard. Preparing manufacturing for emergency production of 300 million doses of vaccine is the stretch goal.
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Old 05-23-2020, 05:27 PM
 
5,104 posts, read 1,944,191 times
Reputation: 3634
Quote:
Originally Posted by markjames68 View Post
But that’s the comparison being made here....
You're the person who brought up NY out of context.

No other poster mentioned it before you did. The rest of us were discussing the situation in Georgia.
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Old 05-23-2020, 06:02 PM
 
Location: Georgia
5,845 posts, read 4,720,909 times
Reputation: 3535
Good discussion we have going here.

I can't respond to every single point made, but there are two I do want to point out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by markjames68 View Post
Though I want to be absolutely clear that I didn't see you make the point that youth are nearly immune from COVID-19 deaths, we need to remind ourselves of a couple facts.

(1) Death is not the only risk. COVID-19 has all sorts of nasty effects, such as fluid pooling up in the lungs and long-term lung damage. Young adults seem to be particularly at risk of cytokine storms (Google them if you don't know what they are.

(2) Asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic carriers exist. If I have it but my symptoms are nothing worse than a cough, that doesn't mean I can't spread it to someone who might have much worse symptoms. This is why nursing homes have had to completely bar people from entering and leaving except for essential staff only. That has resulted in some tragic cases of people having to have final conversations with their loved ones over Zoom.

Quote:
Please provide some evidence as to your assertion that we are more likely to possibly incur “second and third waves”. We are 4 weeks into reopening and the increase hasn’t occurred. Our numbers haven’t plummeted but all the data suggests a slow decline. Hospitalizations are continuing to decline. These are the current facts. The curve has flattened and our hospitals are in no danger of being overwhelmed in GA.
This is the site I have been following. Scroll down to "New COVID-19 Cases by US States/Territories per Day, normalized by population" and select:

Highlight: Georgia
Data: New Cases, 1 Wk. Avg. (this provides smoothing)
Scale: Linear
Y-Axis: Scale To Highlight

As you can see, the number of cases were skyrocketing until physical distancing measures took effect and suddenly halted the spread, about 40 days ago, in early April. We were starting to round the curve and decrease, but notice that on Day 52, we suddenly lost that decline and entered a period of stagnation. Overall, from Day 32 to 70, the rate of decrease in new cases per day has been painfully slow, and the last few days have even seen an uptick.

We are months away from being clear of the coronavirus. Thanks to bad decisions by those in charge here, maybe not until 2021 at the earliest.
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Old 05-23-2020, 06:27 PM
 
9,987 posts, read 5,096,902 times
Reputation: 9663
Quote:
Originally Posted by toll_booth View Post
Good discussion we have going here.

I can't respond to every single point made, but there are two I do want to point out.



Though I want to be absolutely clear that I didn't see you make the point that youth are nearly immune from COVID-19 deaths, we need to remind ourselves of a couple facts.

(1) Death is not the only risk. COVID-19 has all sorts of nasty effects, such as fluid pooling up in the lungs and long-term lung damage. Young adults seem to be particularly at risk of cytokine storms (Google them if you don't know what they are.

(2) Asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic carriers exist. If I have it but my symptoms are nothing worse than a cough, that doesn't mean I can't spread it to someone who might have much worse symptoms. This is why nursing homes have had to completely bar people from entering and leaving except for essential staff only. That has resulted in some tragic cases of people having to have final conversations with their loved ones over Zoom.



This is the site I have been following. Scroll down to "New COVID-19 Cases by US States/Territories per Day, normalized by population" and select:

Highlight: Georgia
Data: New Cases, 1 Wk. Avg. (this provides smoothing)
Scale: Linear
Y-Axis: Scale To Highlight

As you can see, the number of cases were skyrocketing until physical distancing measures took effect and suddenly halted the spread, about 40 days ago, in early April. We were starting to round the curve and decrease, but notice that on Day 52, we suddenly lost that decline and entered a period of stagnation. Overall, from Day 32 to 70, the rate of decrease in new cases per day has been painfully slow, and the last few days have even seen an uptick.

We are months away from being clear of the coronavirus. Thanks to bad decisions by those in charge here, maybe not until 2021 at the earliest.
There is no immunity based upon age, and anyone can die from it. That is clear. Like anything it’s about balancing acceptable risk with economic impact.

The reason I brought up NY is that GA is taking the opposite tack in opening. Cuomo has 7 hurdles before any region can even approach the first stage, which includes some things that really never shut down during GA’s lockdown (like residential construction).

GA is taking one direction. NY is taking the other. Data can be gathered over the next few months to see which will be more effective from all aspects.

I agree that we have stagnated, or at best, entered a slow decline. But using new infections isn’t really relevant as we all know that many people never show any or only mild symptoms. If you test 2x as many people then it’s likely that more will be positive. I’ve seen on the news that many people without any symptoms or mild symptoms are now getting tested because there is the ability to - unlike in March when there were so many criteria to even be considered.

#1 most relevant metric - rate of transmission. If it’s greater than 1 the pandemic is spreading. If less then one, receding. Georgia is bouncing from slightly over to slightly under. And back up.

#2 most relevant metric - number of hospitalizations. If it’s increasing to a point where people can’t get care, or we run out of ventilators or ICU beds, that’s bad.

#3 most relevant metric - deaths. If the number of deaths keep on increasing that’s bad. Note that NY finally got under 100 a day. When compared to GA’s population that would be under 50, which we are not even close to approaching.

Most of everything else is noise. We could have double the infections but if they don’t lead to hospitalizations or deaths they might be unfortunate, but not horrible. A caveat - anyone with serious symptoms will be seeking medical attention and then likely go to the hospital. I’m not denying that serious complications can and do occur.

As to being “clear” of the coronavirus, I don’t think it will ever happen. Again, I watch New York’s numbers because their governor is the most restrictive, based upon how serious the impact has been there. I also have family in metro NYC so I hear first hand how things are going. Both around town and from working in the hospitals.

Should NYC reopen and then the numbers spike, Cuomo will likely shut things down again. And likely more quickly than what Kemp would do for GA. So we can compare and contrast. Merely complaining that Kemp is too fast or too slow isn’t informative in itself.
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Old 05-23-2020, 06:59 PM
 
Location: Georgia
5,845 posts, read 4,720,909 times
Reputation: 3535
Quote:
Originally Posted by markjames68 View Post
There is no immunity based upon age, and anyone can die from it. That is clear. Like anything it’s about balancing acceptable risk with economic impact.
The risk is disproportionate for the elderly, but anyone of any age can get seriously ill or die from COVID-19. And your call for "balance" is a false choice. Places that have beaten the virus, such as New Zealand and South Korea, get to start safely reopening.

And don't try explaining those two cases away as being a product of island nations. Being physically isolated gave them an edge, but it could have made them incubators as well. Korea is a peninsula, and the UK is struggling to keep their case numbers down.

Quote:
The reason I brought up NY is that GA is taking the opposite tack in opening. Cuomo has 7 hurdles before any region can even approach the first stage, which includes some things that really never shut down during GA’s lockdown (like residential construction).

GA is taking one direction. NY is taking the other. Data can be gathered over the next few months to see which will be more effective from all aspects.
Go back to my last post and do that data lookup from the 91-DIVOC website, but instead of selecting "Georgia," select "New York." They were the worst-infected state in the nation two months ago, but their lifesaving measures have brought the daily number of cases down.

Quote:
I agree that we have stagnated, or at best, entered a slow decline. But using new infections isn’t really relevant as we all know that many people never show any or only mild symptoms. If you test 2x as many people then it’s likely that more will be positive. I’ve seen on the news that many people without any symptoms or mild symptoms are now getting tested because there is the ability to - unlike in March when there were so many criteria to even be considered.
You can do all this analysis with the numbers of COVID-19 deaths per day, too, which the website also provides. Again, I recommend the 1-week smoothing option to filter out statistical noise.

Quote:
#1 most relevant metric - rate of transmission. If it’s greater than 1 the pandemic is spreading. If less then one, receding. Georgia is bouncing from slightly over to slightly under. And back up.
The very stagnation that I just described.

Quote:
#2 most relevant metric - number of hospitalizations. If it’s increasing to a point where people can’t get care, or we run out of ventilators or ICU beds, that’s bad.

#3 most relevant metric - deaths. If the number of deaths keep on increasing that’s bad. Note that NY finally got under 100 a day. When compared to GA’s population that would be under 50, which we are not even close to approaching.
See above. If the pandemic turns into an endemic, which is what the "herd immunity" proponents are advocating for, it will just keep killing a small number of people every day for a long time.

Quote:
Most of everything else is noise. We could have double the infections but if they don’t lead to hospitalizations or deaths they might be unfortunate, but not horrible. A caveat - anyone with serious symptoms will be seeking medical attention and then likely go to the hospital. I’m not denying that serious complications can and do occur.

As to being “clear” of the coronavirus, I don’t think it will ever happen. Again, I watch New York’s numbers because their governor is the most restrictive, based upon how serious the impact has been there. I also have family in metro NYC so I hear first hand how things are going. Both around town and from working in the hospitals.

Should NYC reopen and then the numbers spike, Cuomo will likely shut things down again. And likely more quickly than what Kemp would do for GA. So we can compare and contrast. Merely complaining that Kemp is too fast or too slow isn’t informative in itself.
People who support the shutdowns are wise enough not to get out there and protest without strong social distancing measures, without which they would endanger their own and others' lives. This is why you haven't heard much from this silent majority, except online, where the risk of transmission is zero.
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Old 05-23-2020, 06:59 PM
 
1,318 posts, read 534,395 times
Reputation: 1096
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayHey View Post
There's no "ifs" about it. The second wave is happening and that's what the DPH website is proving. Not believing that means not believing your own eyes. There should be no debating the fact.



The months were wasted, but we didn't waste them. The government should have been utilizing that time to greatly expand testing, tracing capabilities, and emergency medical manufacturing, and to promote and require best practices such as wearing masks while in public. That is blending what the federal response should have been with the state response, but the state could have done much more than it did, especially with the later issue.

Staying at home was supposed to flatten the curve AND to buy time for the response to mature. We accomplished the first goal, but gave up on the second part, meaning we've likely made the first goal's accomplishment only temporary. Claiming that the only path forward is Sweden's model is *******s. The differences in societal culture and public health alone make that an extremely deadly proposition. Sweden's death rate for the US would mean already 150,000 deaths and business as usual until herd immunity numbers are reached means over 3 million deaths.

Wearing face masks and limiting contact and time with large groups are the bare minimum needs. Increased testing and tracing should be the standard. Preparing manufacturing for emergency production of 300 million doses of vaccine is the stretch goal.
The science of Herd Immunity is the only way forward at this point if your hypothesis is true. As far as testing goes the most important test is the antibody test NOT the regular COVID test. Those are becoming more and more meaningless everyday that passes. Vulnerable people can stay at home until December if they want. We won’t have a country after another prolonged shutdown just so my 72 year old Aunt who is morbidly obese and has diabetes and smokes 2 packs a day can live one more year instead of 8 months. That’s what this has come to and anyone who expects or depends on government to save them is an idiot. Our government can’t even deliver my mail in a timely and efficient manner. Why would this be any different?
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Old 05-23-2020, 07:05 PM
 
Location: Georgia
5,845 posts, read 4,720,909 times
Reputation: 3535
Quote:
Originally Posted by ronricks View Post
The science of Herd Immunity is the only way forward at this point if your hypothesis is true.
Advocacy for "herd immunity" is an ideology, not science.

The goal of social distancing was to "flatten the curve" and thus buy us time to develop a vaccine without overwhelming the healthcare system. These were the recommendations from healthcare experts, not "herd immunity," which could have resulted in hundreds of millions of Americans getting sick, at least a million of us dying, and hospitals being overrun to the point where ERs had to do what Italy did during the worst stage of their outbreak: Decide within minutes whose lives will be saved and who will be left to die.

This is not exaggeration. This is not fear-mongering. This is the hard reality of what will happen if "herd immunity" were to become our national strategy.

Quote:
We won’t have a country after another prolonged shutdown just so my 72 year old Aunt who is morbidly obese and has diabetes and smokes 2 packs a day can live one more year instead of 8 months.
Wow.
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