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The city expected income tax revenues to be up 2% this fiscal year. So far through the first half of the year revenues are up 7.2% That's more than 3.5x the projected growth. Obviously the only way income tax revenues go up is through more people living/working in the city. I assume the city is conservative when projecting revenue growth and expects a certain number of residents to move into the city limits. This clearly shows people are moving in faster than the city and census bureau are estimating. Also an indication that the residents who live in the city are earning more.
The amount of gain within the city has accelerated each year since the 2010 census according to estimates. Apartment new builds and conversions are coming online at a rapid rate and filling fast. The amount of new apartment projects is on par with cities 3x the size of GR. Also all of this growth is having impacts on surrounding city neighborhoods with older homes being renovated rapidly even spilling into the SE side and such. All this adds up to the city gaining density and filling back up.
The estimates coming out of the census bureau for Grand Rapids have historically been innacurate. In the red hot 1990s the estimates were showing GR losing population, but when the 2000 census came out the city gained 8k residents. Conversely in the downturn of the 2000s the bureau was estimate a small loss of a few thousand, but when numbers came out the city lost more than twice the residents it had estimated. There is good news about new investments weekly, when I am in the city I see new things being built or revovated with each visit.
Does anyone have any thoughts or insights into the population growth of GR? Will the metro area continue to emerge as a bright spot attracting residents? At 45sq mi when will the growth hit a saturation point, how much more infill can actually take place?
The city expected income tax revenues to be up 2% this fiscal year. So far through the first half of the year revenues are up 7.2% That's more than 3.5x the projected growth. Obviously the only way income tax revenues go up is through more people living/working in the city. I assume the city is conservative when projecting revenue growth and expects a certain number of residents to move into the city limits. This clearly shows people are moving in faster than the city and census bureau are estimating. Also an indication that the residents who live in the city are earning more.
The amount of gain within the city has accelerated each year since the 2010 census according to estimates. Apartment new builds and conversions are coming online at a rapid rate and filling fast. The amount of new apartment projects is on par with cities 3x the size of GR. Also all of this growth is having impacts on surrounding city neighborhoods with older homes being renovated rapidly even spilling into the SE side and such. All this adds up to the city gaining density and filling back up.
The estimates coming out of the census bureau for Grand Rapids have historically been innacurate. In the red hot 1990s the estimates were showing GR losing population, but when the 2000 census came out the city gained 8k residents. Conversely in the downturn of the 2000s the bureau was estimate a small loss of a few thousand, but when numbers came out the city lost more than twice the residents it had estimated. There is good news about new investments weekly, when I am in the city I see new things being built or revovated with each visit.
Does anyone have any thoughts or insights into the population growth of GR? Will the metro area continue to emerge as a bright spot attracting residents? At 45sq mi when will the growth hit a saturation point, how much more infill can actually take place?
Keep in mind that "cities", with their density, offers walk-ability, culture, entertainment, mass-transit more efficiently than the suburbs and the "best and brightest" demographic are attracted to those things. Young people are attracted to cities these days. Thus, governments are attempting to create "cool cities", with vibrancy and density to attract and maintain the "best and brightest" demographic that is coveted by businesses.
I have said many times in the past that Grand Rapids is prime for a boom. I am not just talking about the city proper, but the Metro Area as well. Michigan was rated as the 8th most scenically beautiful state in the nation. That is a pretty high ranking considering that there are 50 states and its a state without mountains. A lot of that beauty exist in NW LP and West Michigan. People naturally migrate towards beauty....but Michigan's economy kind of created a vortex that tarnished the image of the whole state and placed focus on the worst that the state had to offer instead of the best that it has to offer.
Grand Rapids is a place that is not on the route to getting to other places. In other words, in traversing from point A to point B, people do not have to go through Grand Rapids people and hence people know little about it. I remember a guy asking me can you fly into Grand Rapids....lol. A lot of people think of Grand Rapids as like Traverse City and not an area of 1 million people. However, since it's designation as an official metro area of 1 million people, it will appear on a lot more list that will get notice. Also, events like Art Prize is exposing the area to people from all over. The more the area gets noticed....the more people that it is going to attract, especially now that the state has hit bottom and is on the rebound.
As long as the national economy continues to chug along, I predict that the Grand Rapids area will see a 3% annual growth rate in population in the next few years. I think it needs to build on two key traits to really become a viable area. 1) Airport: The airport there needs more competition and more direct flights. 2) Major Research University. Its good that MSU and Western has a presence....but the area really needs a major research university and a higher percentage of the population who are college educated
Last edited by Indentured Servant; 02-09-2015 at 09:18 AM..
As long as the national economy continues to chug along, I predict that the Grand Rapids area will see a 3% annual growth rate in population in the next few years. I think it needs to build on two key traits to really become a viable area. 1) Airport: The airport there needs more competition and more direct flights. 2) Major Research University. Its good that MSU and Western has a presence....but the area really needs a major research university and a higher percentage of the population who are college educated
I agree with you 100%. Based on your points here I think the infrastructure is already in place and the city may be further along in the process of achieving these things.
There is a thread I started about GRR but not much talked about, Over the past few years there have been a few more destinations added with Southwest coming in and USairways merging with American have brought a couple more as well. The airport is stinted with a couple things:
1. Higher prices: With the big private corporations and the automotive parts supplier base there a VERY strong business traveler base in and out of GRR. That built in customer base gives little incentive for the carriers to be competitive.
2. Proximity of other regional airports. There are over 2 million people in a 60 mile radius of GRR which is more than cities like Tucson and Oklahoma City. However there are 3 other commercial airports in that same radius all competing for passenger traffic. With those and the bleeding of personal travelers to ORD and DTW for better fares, I don't see GRR truly reaching its potential.
The other point about research university I think GR has to work with what it has. I feel like this is already in place and gaining momentum. You talk about the presence of WMU and MSU, but what about the 25,000 student campus of growing Grand Valley State? MSU is about to build an $85 million dollar research facility on the corner of one of downtowns most important intersections, so that big brand name is increasing. They also own a bunch of property downtown that they can expand on.
Lastly you mention growing it's educated population. A great majority if the cities growth is in knowledge based fields. I remember seeing a study of the strongest cities in education growth and GR made the list, i'm going to have to look for it. But GR had a 97% growth rate among people with a bachelors degree or higher from 2000-2010.
I agree with you 100%. Based on your points here I think the infrastructure is already in place and the city may be further along in the process of achieving these things.
There is a thread I started about GRR but not much talked about, Over the past few years there have been a few more destinations added with Southwest coming in and USairways merging with American have brought a couple more as well. The airport is stinted with a couple things:
1. Higher prices: With the big private corporations and the automotive parts supplier base there a VERY strong business traveler base in and out of GRR. That built in customer base gives little incentive for the carriers to be competitive.
2. Proximity of other regional airports. There are over 2 million people in a 60 mile radius of GRR which is more than cities like Tucson and Oklahoma City. However there are 3 other commercial airports in that same radius all competing for passenger traffic. With those and the bleeding of personal travelers to ORD and DTW for better fares, I don't see GRR truly reaching its potential.
The other point about research university I think GR has to work with what it has. I feel like this is already in place and gaining momentum. You talk about the presence of WMU and MSU, but what about the 25,000 student campus of growing Grand Valley State? MSU is about to build an $85 million dollar research facility on the corner of one of downtowns most important intersections, so that big brand name is increasing. They also own a bunch of property downtown that they can expand on.
Lastly you mention growing it's educated population. A great majority if the cities growth is in knowledge based fields. I remember seeing a study of the strongest cities in education growth and GR made the list, i'm going to have to look for it. But GR had a 97% growth rate among people with a bachelors degree or higher from 2000-2010.
Yeah....I agree....the area has done a good job in creating the foundation for the growth of GRR and Research. It's not like the area's leaders had not envisioned that the area would need such things to be a competitive area for attracting and maintaining business. It really has positioned itself well for future growth and with the areas growing vibrancy....this is why I predict a 3% annual growth in the near future. Such a rate of growth would fit the description of a boom town. However, I am not sure many of the leaders want a boom, as opposed to slow solid growth, like 2% annual. Some people are probably fearful that it could change the quality of life in the area, increase traffic problems, crime, etc.
I think Traverse City is also an area that has great potential for growth.....more for retirees though.
Well I think the city leaders are pro growth. I think what's more cause for concern would be the anti-growth suburban townships. With a population influx comes the need for expanded infrastructure. The suburban mindset in GR is to fight almost all change, even when done responsibly.
If you look at the places that post growth rates like the 3% you're anticipating, the metro areas all have suburbs that are expanding the grids and master planing for more subdivisions and retail growth and such. There is almost none of that happening in GR. Which will be a problem if there's nowhere to expand to put new residents.
I'm too lazy to find it, but I read that projections for Grand Rapids CSA in 2030 is 1.5 million.
I do not trust a lot of projections. They tend to be extrapolations that assume that what was will continue to be. Some are more sophisticated than that but projecting 15 years out is like projecting 15 days out for the weather.
I do not trust a lot of projections. They tend to be extrapolations that assume that what was will continue to be. Some are more sophisticated than that but projecting 15 years out is like projecting 15 days out for the weather.
I agree projections are for all intents and purposes useless. 1.5 million people for a CSA that has 1.395 million people is fairly bleak. That's 100k residents in 15 years. That's most likely based on the growth from 2000-2010. From 2010-2013 the GR MSA has already reached the raw growth numbers it saw for the entire previous decade and it's gaining momentum. I feel like the city is doing its part to grow, but the suburban communities like those in western Ottawa County, and northern Kent County need to improve their infrastructures to accommodate future growth as well
As long as the national economy continues to chug along, I predict that the Grand Rapids area will see a 3% annual growth rate in population in the next few years. I think it needs to build on two key traits to really become a viable area. 1) Airport: The airport there needs more competition and more direct flights. 2) Major Research University. Its good that MSU and Western has a presence....but the area really needs a major research university and a higher percentage of the population who are college educated
Every college in Michigan now has a major presence in Grand Rapids, except Wayne State. UofM opened a cancer center with Metro Health last year. MSU has their med school headquartered in GR now with 16 more acres to develop. GVSU is the fastest growing school in Michigan. There's a law school, an architecture school now, a design school, Ferris' pharmacy program, GVSU's computer science program is rated one of the best in the State, seems like higher ed is booming.
It will be interesting to see what partnerships MSU is able to bring in the biomedical fields. Will the CDC, NIH, or other federal health sciences organizations set up shop? Like Raleigh Durham RTP has successfully drawn federal research projects, maybe more will take notice?
Grand Rapids just needs to really focus on inclusivity and diversity, post haste.
Grand Rapids just needs to really focus on inclusivity and diversity, post haste.
I agree with you, but from a philosophical stand point i'm not sure how to achieve this.
I do feel the city itself is diversifying, but what is the metric by which these things are gauged?
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