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I don't know what the national data is on those stats....but I know of many people who have done such in the last 5 years....including relatives. There are a ton of people just packing up and moving to Atlanta, Houston or the like.
Absolutely, as there will always be some intrastate migration. You're more likely to know someone in your extended network who is moving away than you are knowing someone who is moving here (because they're probably not in your network yet). Unless you work in the relocation or human resources industries, when you meet people moving here every day.
But for West Michigan, for every one person who moves away, 2 are moving here. That's been the trend for the last 5 years anyway. The data might be different if you singled out the African American community, especially for the State of Michigan. All of those hundreds of thousands of African Americans leaving the city of Detroit are probably not all just moving to the suburbs.
Here's an article about interstate migration declines. It's almost half of what is was back through the 2000's.
Great Lakes and NE Coast states are still big losers when it comes to out-migration.
In just a one year period in 2013, Michigan lost 28,000 people, Ohio 23,000, Illinois 67,000, PA 30,000, New York 104,000 and N.J. 45,000.
Absolutely, as there will always be some intrastate migration. You're more likely to know someone in your extended network who is moving away than you are knowing someone who is moving here (because they're probably not in your network yet). Unless you work in the relocation or human resources industries, when you meet people moving here every day.
But for West Michigan, for every one person who moves away, 2 are moving here. That's been the trend for the last 5 years anyway. The data might be different if you singled out the African American community, especially for the State of Michigan. All of those hundreds of thousands of African Americans leaving the city of Detroit are probably not all just moving to the suburbs.
Here's an article about interstate migration declines. It's almost half of what is was back through the 2000's.
Great Lakes and NE Coast states are still big losers when it comes to out-migration.
In just a one year period in 2013, Michigan lost 28,000 people, Ohio 23,000, Illinois 67,000, PA 30,000, New York 104,000 and N.J. 45,000.
I do not think we are really disagreeing...but are simply highlighting different aspects of the relocation phenomenon. I think that the more exposure GR gets, the more people it will attract due to what it has to offer. The relative problem GR has is that it does not get as much exposure because it has not been one of the boom towns of the last few decades. In other words, in a nation that follows trends, GR has not been "trendy" nationally and in fact it may be a victim of negative trend as a result of the fallacy of division in which people assume what is true of the whole (Michigan/Rust Belt) is true of a part (Grand Rapids) of the whole.
Boom towns create employment from the boom by speculating on more boom. If you live in a boom town today there are employment opportunities being created in construction and other sectors FROM SPECULATION. I don't know if that is necessarily a good thing in the long run, but it helps create a self fulfilling prophecy in the short run. All the investment from speculation stimulates the economies which in turn attracts more people which in turn fulfills the prophecy/speculation. An example of this to the extreme is China and the ghost cities it has built. China's economy borrowed from future production/construction which created a boom. Their economic model is unsustainable and there economy is slowing as the future they borrowed from is coming into fruition.
Immigration and not domestic migration is why many metro areas boomed. Immigration is why has kept many large central cities population above water the last 30 years. If the city of Detroit had the number of immigrants as the 10 largest US cities, it would still be a city of over 1 million. GR needs more exposure to boom and it needs to become attractive to immigrants, African Americans, Asians, as well as whites.
I do not think we are really disagreeing...but are simply highlighting different aspects of the relocation phenomenon. I think that the more exposure GR gets, the more people it will attract due to what it has to offer. The relative problem GR has is that it does not get as much exposure because it has not been one of the boom towns of the last few decades. In other words, in a nation that follows trends, GR has not been "trendy" nationally and in fact it may be a victim of negative trend as a result of the fallacy of division in which people assume what is true of the whole (Michigan/Rust Belt) is true of a part (Grand Rapids) of the whole.
Boom towns create employment from the boom by speculating on more boom. If you live in a boom town today there are employment opportunities being created in construction and other sectors FROM SPECULATION. I don't know if that is necessarily a good thing in the long run, but it helps create a self fulfilling prophecy in the short run. All the investment from speculation stimulates the economies which in turn attracts more people which in turn fulfills the prophecy/speculation. An example of this to the extreme is China and the ghost cities it has built. China's economy borrowed from future production/construction which created a boom. Their economic model is unsustainable and there economy is slowing as the future they borrowed from is coming into fruition.
Immigration and not domestic migration is why many metro areas boomed. Immigration is why has kept many large central cities population above water the last 30 years. If the city of Detroit had the number of immigrants as the 10 largest US cities, it would still be a city of over 1 million. GR needs more exposure to boom and it needs to become attractive to immigrants, African Americans, Asians, as well as whites.
I agree, I don't think we're disagreeing. Just dissecting.
I'd rather the GR area not get up into the 3%+ growth range, not for a time period like 10 years or more. I think the downsides would outweigh the upsides, and reduce qualify of life. 1.5 - 2% growth is manageable.
I agree, I don't think we're disagreeing. Just dissecting.
I'd rather the GR area not get up into the 3%+ growth range, not for a time period like 10 years or more. I think the downsides would outweigh the upsides, and reduce qualify of life. 1.5 - 2% growth is manageable.
Yeah....a 3% growth rate would, over 10 years, require some major infrastructure investment, like new roads and widening many existing roads and or highways. However, the demands on a growing area creates more economic opportunity. It's a double edged sword for sure.
Yeah....a 3% growth rate would, over 10 years, require some major infrastructure investment, like new roads and widening many existing roads and or highways. However, the demands on a growing area creates more economic opportunity. It's a double edged sword for sure.
And at that rate of growth the metro area is perpetually in a state of chaos with construction, which gets old after a few years. Already I've noticed an uptick in traffic jams around the Grand Rapids area in the last five years. I spend a lot of time traveling during the day. It's still not nearly as bad as Detroit or Chicago, but another 50,000 - 100,000 people on the existing highways would be felt.
In the last 4 years, the Labor Force and non-farm payroll has grown by about 15,000 people per year, which is almost the same number as Raleigh (GR is a little bit higher and growing at twice the annual percentage rate). That could carry on until 2020 and beyond.
Not sure why Trulia is saying Grand Rapids is the hottest housing market.
I can think of 10 places off the top of my head that are MUCH hotter.
House prices are not soaring in Grand Rapids like they are in Houston, Seattle, New York City, or San Francisco. Not even close. San Francisco has seen housing prices double in the past 4 years.
Grand Rapids is increasing like the rest of the country with 3-4% annual increase.
Sure, some markets like East Grand Rapids are soaring, but that's just due to short supply and having one of the only good public school systems in the Grand Rapids area.
The truth is the market in Grand Rapids could not sustain a "hot market" right now. The supply is too great and the salaries are "meh" at best.
Not sure why Trulia is saying Grand Rapids is the hottest housing market.
I can think of 10 places off the top of my head that are MUCH hotter.
House prices are not soaring in Grand Rapids like they are in Houston, Seattle, New York City, or San Francisco. Not even close. San Francisco has seen housing prices double in the past 4 years.
Grand Rapids is increasing like the rest of the country with 3-4% annual increase.
Sure, some markets like East Grand Rapids are soaring, but that's just due to short supply and having one of the only good public school systems in the Grand Rapids area.
The truth is the market in Grand Rapids could not sustain a "hot market" right now. The supply is too great and the salaries are "meh" at best.
OK, I'll try to address all of these in order, or not in order:
Trulia said it was the "Top Market to Watch" for 2016, not the fastest appreciating. In fact, one of the reasons they rated it as a market to watch is because of its affordability.
These were the other factors:
"..strong job growth over the past year, low vacancy rates, high affordability, more inbound home searches than outbound, and a large share of millennials.
The latest numbers from the Grand Rapids Association of Realtors shows that there are only 2.4 months of supply of homes on the market, one of the lowest in history and actually a sign of a shortage of properties on the market (4 - 6 months is usually a market in balance). The supply is not even close to being "too great."
There are plenty of good public school districts in the GR area: Forest Hills, Rockford, Byron Center, Hudsonville, Zeeland.
The salaries are lower than the cities you mentioned but that's to be expected. It's a much smaller market than Seattle or Houston and the cost of living is less.
I also see that you're complaining in a bunch of other threads about overpriced housing. So are you "for" hyperinflated" housing prices or "against" hyper inflated housing prices?
OK, I'll try to address all of these in order, or not in order:
Trulia said it was the "Top Market to Watch" for 2016, not the fastest appreciating. In fact, one of the reasons they rated it as a market to watch is because of its affordability.
These were the other factors:
"..strong job growth over the past year, low vacancy rates, high affordability, more inbound home searches than outbound, and a large share of millennials.
The latest numbers from the Grand Rapids Association of Realtors shows that there are only 2.4 months of supply of homes on the market, one of the lowest in history and actually a sign of a shortage of properties on the market (4 - 6 months is usually a market in balance). The supply is not even close to being "too great."
There are plenty of good public school districts in the GR area: Forest Hills, Rockford, Byron Center, Hudsonville, Zeeland.
The salaries are lower than the cities you mentioned but that's to be expected. It's a much smaller market than Seattle or Houston and the cost of living is less.
I also see that you're complaining in a bunch of other threads about overpriced housing. So are you "for" hyperinflated" housing prices or "against" hyper inflated housing prices?
Guess I misunderstood their meaning of "hottest". I agree, it's a great and affordable place to live. I hope it stays that way.
I've always been weary of Realtors making claims about house pricing. They have skin in the game. High prices mean more profit.
My posts have not really been complaining and haven't been about Grand Rapids. They're more to draw attention to a possible bubble forming in San Francisco.
The great housing bubble of the mid-to late 2000s was based on frantic buying and shady lending practices.
We're starting to see shady lending practices again, including going over a 50% DTI ratio, and we're seeing some of that same "house prices increasing, buy now while you can!" attitude we saw in 2004.
A lot of people are stretching slightly beyond their means. When it comes to these lending practices, I like to quote George Carlin: "Think about how stupid the average person is, then realize half of them are stupid than that." A lot of people don't know what they're doing when they buy real estate. They say: "How much house can I buy when my income is $xxxx". They rarely say "Is this house overpriced?"
Giving these people mortgages they barely can afford is like giving a monkey an M60. Sure, it's cute at first, but it's only a matter of time before it causes a lot of mayhem.
Guess I misunderstood their meaning of "hottest". I agree, it's a great and affordable place to live. I hope it stays that way.
I've always been weary of Realtors making claims about house pricing. They have skin in the game. High prices mean more profit.
My posts have not really been complaining and haven't been about Grand Rapids. They're more to draw attention to a possible bubble forming in San Francisco.
The great housing bubble of the mid-to late 2000s was based on frantic buying and shady lending practices.
We're starting to see shady lending practices again, including going over a 50% DTI ratio, and we're seeing some of that same "house prices increasing, buy now while you can!" attitude we saw in 2004.
A lot of people are stretching slightly beyond their means. When it comes to these lending practices, I like to quote George Carlin: "Think about how stupid the average person is, then realize half of them are stupid than that." A lot of people don't know what they're doing when they buy real estate. They say: "How much house can I buy when my income is $xxxx". They rarely say "Is this house overpriced?"
Giving these people mortgages they barely can afford is like giving a monkey an M60. Sure, it's cute at first, but it's only a matter of time before it causes a lot of mayhem.
It's still pretty tough here to get a mortgage for more than (or even up to) 36% DTI, especially if you don't have 20% down. That must be in regions where there really is no choice that they'd go to 50%.
Not sure why Trulia is saying Grand Rapids is the hottest housing market.
I can think of 10 places off the top of my head that are MUCH hotter.
House prices are not soaring in Grand Rapids like they are in Houston, Seattle, New York City, or San Francisco. Not even close. San Francisco has seen housing prices double in the past 4 years.
Grand Rapids is increasing like the rest of the country with 3-4% annual increase.
Sure, some markets like East Grand Rapids are soaring, but that's just due to short supply and having one of the only good public school systems in the Grand Rapids area.
The truth is the market in Grand Rapids could not sustain a "hot market" right now. The supply is too great and the salaries are "meh" at best.
Houston.....with gas at or below 50 dollars a barrel??? If the housing market there is hot.....it's going to cool off pretty quickly with gas selling as low as it is and no major increase in sight. Sure, its economy is more diversified since the last oil downturn hurt the area.....but the Detroit area is more diversified than it used to be too....so that is not saying a whole lot.
San Fran is booming because it has become the place that tech superheroes want to live. Its also surrounded by water, kind of like Manhattan and that makes property appreciate a lot faster when there is an increase in demand because you cannot increase the supply of land.
I think they authors are looking not simply at appreciation, but also affordability.
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