Is the weather really getting more extreme? (global warming, suspect, states)

[Glacierx]

It seems that almost every day we heard another apocalyptic story of another heat wave, another flood, or another dead polar bear, but as anyone who studies the weather knows, there are so many weather categories and climates around the world, that weather records should be broken on a fairly consistent basis due to the relatively short period of record keeping.

I know a few people who think the end of the world is upon us, and thus they are convinced that earthquake activity is increasing. Their proof is that another big earthquake hit the news yesterday. By the same token, we see the same self-fulfilling prophecy with weather extremes.

Very few people question whether or not extremes are increasing or decreasing. Actually, I doubt most people have even given thought to the idea that things could be getting better, or at least less severe. My theory is that there is something ingrained in the human psyche that longs for the extreme. Extremes and thrills are interrelated.

On one hand we have the doomsayers who are convinced everything is getting worse - morals are going down hill, earthquakes are getting more severe, floods are becoming worse, droughts are becoming more widespread, heat is becoming more intense, etc. On the other side of the spectrum we have contrarians who believe that everything is getting better. They are convinced that society and nature are progressing with Darwinian bliss into something better. These are the people who play fiddles as the titanic sinks.

The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, but I think that the doomsayers are wrong about one point - most weather extremes are not increasing.

I will start with temperature. Notice that in my graph below, both hot and cold extremes are most prevalent in the 1930s. Also notice the second most common decade for both hot and cold extremes was the 1990s. This is actually an interesting phenomenon that I hadn't realized before now.

It is true that the number of extreme hot and cold temperatures increased each decade from the 1960s through the 1990s, but there have been very few extreme records since then.

What do you think, are extreme weather events increasing, decreasing, or merely moving sideways?

[tijlover]

I read a number of biographies and historical types books, and that helps keep things in perspective, that comforts me in knowing that extremities in weather is nothing new!

Has anything ever happened in this country that can match the devastation of the Dust Bowl years, or the record amount of snowfall that paralyzed the Dakota's in the late 1800's?

I just finished reading a book about a Jewish family that moved to NYC in 1963 in winter, said to be the coldest winter ever in NYC.

Also reading the History of the Telephone. Late 1880's, NYC, no underground wires back then, it was a maze of wires with 90 foot telephone poles, wires so dense it was blotting out the sunshine, and along comes one of the worst snowstorms NYC had ever seen, taking down the wires and snapping the telephone poles as well! It took that snowstorm to finally put the wires underground!

[fairlaker]

If you are talking about local weather, all kinds of things can happen. If you are talking about global climate, there is no question of what's happening.

[Glacierx]

Originally Posted by fairlaker

If you are talking about global climate, there is no question of what's happening.

In other words, actual facts come secondary to what one believes is happening.

One should always question their assumptions, and look past the anecdotes. The actual data does not show any increase in extremes beyond what we've seen in the past; the sky is not falling.

[marlinfshr]

I don't think it's getting more extreme. It seems all I hear about is an increase in hurricanes and tornadoes. But what I never hear is the increase in technology is making that possible. In the past in order for a storm to be counted it had to be witnessed. Now a storm can pass at sea and it will be picked up the moment it starts forming. Same thing with tornadoes. One touching down for a few moments in the middle of nowhere in the past would not have been noticed, therefore not even existed. Now it is counted.

As far as land falling hurricanes and destruction, well, the coast is a lot more built up now and there are a lot more people living in their path's. It seems people tend to forget, or have not heard about, the major storms coming ashore in the first half of the 1900's and the destruction they caused. I actually live in a town that was changed forever by a storm in the 30's as it opened an inlet right through it. Look at the history of NC's outer banks and the opening and closing of inlets during hurricanes going back to the first settlers as well.

Another thing is the internet and constant 24 hour updated news. It seems every storm, tsunami, volcanic eruption and earthquake are reported as the headline story of every news outlet that no wonder people feel the world is coming to an end. When I was growing up, if it didn't fit on the front page of the newspaper it probably didn't exist and there were more important things for the local area then reading about some small earthquake in some small country 10,000 miles away that did no damage. Now you see on yahoo, AOL, FOX, CNN, etc... every minor catastrophe or disturbance anywhere in the world within seconds of it happening.

And then there is the reporter putting their worthless opinion into it making it always sound like its the worst in years. And I really love the reporters telling everyone on the east coast that you should really pay attention to this storm offshore because it has the potential of becoming a category 5 hurricane any time and turning back towards the coast, as it has weakened to a tropical storm heading northeast and is about 400 miles northeast of Bermuda. Then there is the always ubiquitous reporter who ACTS like he can barely stand up while leaning into a 30knot breeze on some beach while panning in on whitecaps and a bent over palm tree.

No wonder people think it's getting worse.

[fairlaker]

Originally Posted by Glacierx

In other words, actual facts come secondary to what one believes is happening.

Are there really STILL deniers out there?

[fairlaker]

Originally Posted by marlinfshr

No wonder people think it's getting worse.

People don't know what the weather is doing, much less climate. They aren't scientists. They don't track anything. They don't do any analyses. But people do like to talk about the weather, and if there were strong winds last night, plenty will claim that it's getting so much windier these days.

Meanwhile, television (particularly the local news) sensationalizes everything. People should be used to that by now.

[Glacierx]

Originally Posted by fairlaker

Are there really STILL deniers out there?

When it comes to Climate Change/Global Warming there are actually deniers on both sides. Deniers are those who deny the facts, and I suspect that you are one based on your posts here.

Here is another graph showing hurricane strength in the United States. As you can see there has been no increasing trend since 1900, though I suspect that you're tempted to deny this fact too.

[augiedogie]

I'm almost 61 now. Nothing extreme about most weather. Tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, droughts are all typical stuff. All the hype about weather getting more extreme is just that, hype.

[fairlaker]

Originally Posted by Glacierx

When it comes to Climate Change/Global Warming there are actually deniers on both sides. Deniers are those who deny the facts, and I suspect that you are one based on your posts here. Here is another graph showing hurricane strength in the United States. As you can see there has been no increasing trend since 1900, though I suspect that you're tempted to deny this fact too.

LOL! I'm tempted simply to dismiss you as a graceless buffoon. In fact I will do just that. I can do so much better simply by turning to the scribblings of Lord Monckton.