Will Hispanics reach "socio-economic" parity with Whites? (wages, generations, Mexicans)
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There has been a lot of talk about Latinos becoming white. I think perhaps the better question is will Hispanics reach socio-economic parity for with white Americans. As of today, Hispanics generally lag behind white Americans on most measures of income and education.
It seems there are two schools of though for how this will shape out in the future:
1) Yes, The white/Hispanic gap will gradually close over time. The US is at the end of a massive boom in low skilled immigrants from Latin America. Right now, Latino's are poorer than whites because they are still mostly 1st and 2nd generation Americans who started at the bottom. Like previous immigrant groups, over a generation or two, Latino's will see strong upward mobility as Hispanics assimilate, become better educated and obtain higher paying jobs.
2) No, The white/Hispanic gap will not gradually close over time. Latinos will perpetually remain a "disadvantaged minority group" that lags whites in education and income. Average income gaps will not close due to some combination of:
- racial discrimination
- structural declines in social mobility (the loss of middle skilled factory work, decline in 2 parent
families)
- a new wave of low skilled Latino immigrants will continue to drag down Hispanic
averages.
I think most people hope for the 1st outcome. The 2nd outcome will likely lead to great social polarization.
Personally, I hope for the 1st. I don't think the "discrimination aspect" is insurmountable. Asians are basically on par with whites despite some discrimination. But, I do worry the "decline in social mobility" will hurt Hispanics from gradually rising up the way previous immigration groups did.
"Hispanics" isn't one homogenous group so generalizations won't work -- the term comprises different cultures (Afro Caribbean, Indian, European, etc), different races and mixtures of races, and separate nations with different levels of public education and economic development. Some groups of Hispanics will experience upward mobility (as happens even today), while others will continue to struggle.
They will. Most immigrant groups started off on the bottom. Jews, Irish, Poles, Italians all came over and were at or near the bottom. But they took advantage of opportunity and worked their way up. Hispanics are the same as the other groups. They are very hard workers for one thing.
The only thing that can hold them back is the siren song of group identity. They must become Americans in every way. My parents came from Germany and aside from ethnic food and folk fests, they became American as quickly and thoroughly as they could. English was spoken at home for example.
Hispanics in Mexico, etc. are repressed by corrupt governments and sclerotic societies. That's why there's so much crime and violence there: there is no opportunity. That's all they lack, a chance to get ahead.
There has been a lot of talk about Latinos becoming white. I think perhaps the better question is will Hispanics reach socio-economic parity for with white Americans. As of today, Hispanics generally lag behind white Americans on most measures of income and education.
It seems there are two schools of though for how this will shape out in the future:
1) Yes, The white/Hispanic gap will gradually close over time. The US is at the end of a massive boom in low skilled immigrants from Latin America. Right now, Latino's are poorer than whites because they are still mostly 1st and 2nd generation Americans who started at the bottom. Like previous immigrant groups, over a generation or two, Latino's will see strong upward mobility as Hispanics assimilate, become better educated and obtain higher paying jobs.
2) No, The white/Hispanic gap will not gradually close over time. Latinos will perpetually remain a "disadvantaged minority group" that lags whites in education and income. Average income gaps will not close due to some combination of:
- racial discrimination
- structural declines in social mobility (the loss of middle skilled factory work, decline in 2 parent
families)
- a new wave of low skilled Latino immigrants will continue to drag down Hispanic
averages.
I think most people hope for the 1st outcome. The 2nd outcome will likely lead to great social polarization.
Personally, I hope for the 1st. I don't think the "discrimination aspect" is insurmountable. Asians are basically on par with whites despite some discrimination. But, I do worry the "decline in social mobility" will hurt Hispanics from gradually rising up the way previous immigration groups did.
As a group, Hispanics lag behind whites because they continue to add lots of new immigrants who are generally poorer economically and more poorly educated. That distorts the reality that Hispanics really are adapting and prospering in the US like previous immigrants. In the past, it took about three generations for immigrants to move from immigrant poverty to reasonable places in the middle class. My Italian grandparents, for example, came to the US illiterate and destitute. They managed to buy a farm. Their children were blue-collar/working class. Just about all of their grandchildren graduated from college.
That's a very common situation among all immigrant groups, even among Hispanics. Many of the Puerto Ricans who came to NYC and other large eastern cities in the 1950s and 1960s have followed the same path that my grandparents did. In California, the grandchildren of Mexicans who came to work on the farms in the Central Valley fifty years ago are largely indistinguishable from white Californians except for their surnames and perhaps their physical features, so they're not really noticed as much as the newcomers who can barely speak English and work menial jobs.
Some Hispanics are white because they are descended from European settles. There is little to no physiological difference between a white Hispanic and a settler from southern Europe. Lose the accent (i.e., a child raised here), and there is no real way to tell the difference between a 1st generation immigrant from Italy, Mexico, Guatemala, Greece, or anywhere else.
I work with two sisters who are half hispanic (father was an immigrant). They speak with typical rural southern accents. No one ever knows they are Hispanic unless they are told.
So to directly comment on the debate, dark-skinned Hispanics (descendants of AmerIndians or escaped slaves) will face the same problems as dark-skinned members of any other ethnic group, so (2). Light-skinned Hispanics can very easily assimilate and become "white" by simply abandoning their native accent and culture, so (1).
As a group, Hispanics lag behind whites because they continue to add lots of new immigrants who are generally poorer economically and more poorly educated. That distorts the reality that Hispanics really are adapting and prospering in the US like previous immigrants. In the past, it took about three generations for immigrants to move from immigrant poverty to reasonable places in the middle class. My Italian grandparents, for example, came to the US illiterate and destitute. They managed to buy a farm. Their children were blue-collar/working class. Just about all of their grandchildren graduated from college.
That's a very common situation among all immigrant groups, even among Hispanics. Many of the Puerto Ricans who came to NYC and other large eastern cities in the 1950s and 1960s have followed the same path that my grandparents did. In California, the grandchildren of Mexicans who came to work on the farms in the Central Valley fifty years ago are largely indistinguishable from white Californians except for their surnames and perhaps their physical features, so they're not really noticed as much as the newcomers who can barely speak English and work menial jobs.
I hope this is true that these income gaps will natural resolve themselves in time. But, I'm just a little nervous that the relative gaps are so much larger than 100 years ago.
The Atlantic, which is a generally liberal, pro-immigration publication recently had a story where they pointed out that today's low skilled immigrants are starting out in a much deeper hole relative to the general population than immigrants a century ago.
"Workers from western Europe could come to the U.S. and find jobs that were about on par with the average American, like factory work. Because they had similar jobs and skill levels, immigrants made similar wages to their American counterparts. Within a single generation, immigrants could be caught up economically to the native born population.
But that fast, sure path to the American dream doesn’t exist for many of today’s immigrants. In the current economy, the skill level of the average American worker has shifted and lower-skilled trades, like those found in manufacturing, have declined. That means that workers who immigrate in recent decades with low-skill levels face a much more significant economic gap than immigrants a century ago. Today, low-skilled immigrants earn less and that means it takes them, and their children, much longer to catch up. "
Given this reality, it seems the income gap isn't going to close as quickly as it did 100 years ago. The current gap is skill levels is simply too great to be closed over night. But, I do hope we make enough signs of progress toward that it keeps everyone happy. Otherwise, I fear we will fall into nasty deeply entrenched ethnic politics.
There has been a lot of talk about Latinos becoming white.
The media doesn't have a memory that goes back even forty years.
They have ALWAYS been white - for all of American history. We've only been calling people "hispanic" or "latino" since the 80s. It's a completely new demographic that was fabricated by bureaucrats. Before then, they were white.
Ask any hispanic today whose over forty years old and was born in the United States, "what race was written on your original birth certificate?". You'll find out that 90% were born white.
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