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The "shortage" of test kits is not due to Supply Chain issues, rather it's due to a sudden extraordinary high demand......
Thank you for the long winded but thoroughly superfluous discussion of CoV test kits...Nobody's life hangs in the balance over whether or not they have access to testing. With no specific medical treatment available for CoViD, treatment of ventilatory failure is the same regardless of cause.
OTOH- there are 13,000,000 Americans whose lives quite literally depend on a reliable, safe source of levo-thyroxine. Right now, almost all of it is supplied by the Chinese. Being one of those people, I'm not at all happy about it.
This is one of those areas that Trump is talking about concerning our previous state of trade deals. It's not easy for an American company faced with regs over minimum wage and union demands to compete with foreign manufacturers who can get by paying 10 cents/ hr for labor. We need to add a few weights to their saddle bags.
We spent years fretting over our dependence on foreign oil, and took steps to correct that...Now we need to do it for independence from foreign sources of meds.
If we had an adequate number of test kits the mortality rate would not be near as high as it is, because we would then realize we have a lot more people with the virus. We can state without any doubt how many died from it on the other hand. That number is a constant compared to the infected rate.
I have a bad feeling that the number of available test kits will closely come to the same level of available treatment options, once they become available, so people who know they have it won't be told they have nothing to give them to help them.
My argument to your points that you made - At the least, we know what we are capable of, from a capacity perspective. When we know what we are capable of, we also know how we ramp up in case of emergencies and have a plan in place. Everything is within our borders, so you control how things get accomplished and you can accurately predict the production and delivery timelines. That will also allow us to plan for treatment in a surge situation. The unknown with having critical parts of our supply chain outside of our country, makes us dependent on the priorities of foreign entities. Especially in a pandemic like the current one, which is global in nature, a outside entity will prioritize their needs ahead of ours.
In addition to the above, there is an inherent risk to our health and well-being, when we depend on a foreign entity for our medical supplies. Are the regulations for production and testing stringent enough? What control do we have in ensuring the quality of the supplies from a foreign entity?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea
There's no evidence of that.
The "shortage" of test kits is not due to Supply Chain issues, rather it's due to a sudden extraordinary high demand.
You do have corona virus test kits and you have had them since around the early 1970s.
For death certificates of your ancestors that show influenza or pneumonia as the cause of death, a good many of those are actually corona virus. It wasn't discovered until 1965, thanks to more powerful electron microscopes that used the "new" transistor-technology.
Since then, you've had epidemics every 2-3 years. Some years are worse than others. 2008 was such a year with HCOV-NH.
You didn't know that because the Media never saw fit to report them and, in particular, 2008 was overwhelmed with the recession.
You have manufacturers in the US that produce test kits for a variety of illnesses and diseases.
Like all companies in the US, they produce only enough product to cover anticipated demand and a little extra to cover a slight increase in demand and all based on projections.
If medical facilities in the US are only demanding 5 Million corona virus test kits per year, then why would you produce 30 Million per year?
What's the demand now, about 120 Million kits or so?
It takes you 12 months to produce 5 Million kits.
So, how are you going to produce 120 Million kits in 1 day?
Not gonna happen.
Even if 12 companies produce test kits, they couldn't produce 120 Million in 1 day or 5 days or 1 month or even 3 months.
They don't have the labor.
These companies are not going to hire permanent employees at great cost and expense.
No, they're going to contract with temporary services, since this is a temporary thing.
These companies only have 1 shift, maybe 60 to 120 employees that actually work on the production floor.
They'll have to hire 120 to 240 temporaries to run 3 shifts flat out 7 days/week.
Where are they going to find that many people?
"Well, there's 6 Million unemployed...."
Sorry, wrong answer. That's not how it works.
In your hey-day when manufacturing was "king" only 20% of your work-force was in manufacturing.
What's 20% of 6 Million? 1,200,000 or 1.2 Million.
Only people with the manufacturing skill-set work in manufacturing jobs. Except this isn't exactly manufacturing, it's high-tech clean-room manufacturing.
Even so, do all 1.2 Million live in the same city?
Let's use 392, which is the number of Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the US which more or less conforms to labor markets.
That gives you 3,061 potential employees since not all of them actually want to work in manufacturing even though they have the skill-set, or are not currently available to work for whatever reason -- perhaps they cannot work 2nd or 3rd shift -- or have no desire for temporary employment.
And that ain't the half of it.
Everything operates on JIT (Just-in-Time Inventory).
You need supplies to manufacture your test kits. Your suppliers are all in the same boat you are. They cannot produce the supplies you need in 1 day or 3 days or 1 week or 1 month or 3 months and they will have to expand production by adding temporary workers for additional shifts.
So, whether you control 100% of the Supply Chain or not makes no difference.
This is no different than going to war. It takes 6-12 months to get manufacturing up to production to produce war materiel.
I don’t think reversing the global nature of our economy and trade is realistic or practical. That said, as horrific as this is, it could end up creating new industries - including manufacturing, perhaps . But products will still remain cheaper overseas, so the idea about is probably unrealistic.
Things will be different from now on. I don’t know how. One thing that randomly occurred to me was the imagining public transportation fitted with clear thick plastic dividers between seats, somehow retractable for anyone traveling with a child, etc. I don’t know why - I don’t use public transit, but I was thinking about changes.
I think plexiglass barriers in grocery checkout lines could pop up - even a new system that shoppers and cashiers don’t have to physically exchange loyalty, credit cards, even cash. Also in medical waiting rooms?
There could be a surge in apps or systems that prevent queuing. Telemedicine is going to explode, and possibly prescription delivery (used now, but it might become the norm. I hope not. Interacting with my pharmacy is a real joy.
But the keypads and digital signature pens (gag).
But - once the threat subsides, things may just go back to business as *somewhat* usual.
These are precisely my thoughts on this topic. Although my original post talks about Coronavirus test kits, i am actually talking about the bigger picture, that you articulated really well.
I.personally think that the issue can transcend political viewpoints. If we treat this issue as a national security issue, our nation has the capacity to find cost-effective solutions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto
Thank you for the long winded but thoroughly superfluous discussion of CoV test kits...Nobody's life hangs in the balance over whether or not they have access to testing. With no specific medical treatment available for CoViD, treatment of ventilatory failure is the same regardless of cause.
OTOH- there are 13,000,000 Americans whose lives quite literally depend on a reliable, safe source of levo-thyroxine. Right now, almost all of it is supplied by the Chinese. Being one of those people, I'm not at all happy about it.
This is one of those areas that Trump is talking about concerning our previous state of trade deals. It's not easy for an American company faced with regs over minimum wage and union demands to compete with foreign manufacturers who can get by paying 10 cents/ hr for labor. We need to add a few weights to their saddle bags.
We spent years fretting over our dependence on foreign oil, and took steps to correct that...Now we need to do it for independence from foreign sources of meds.
I asked my senators and rep to write a one-page law stating that all pharmaceuticals shall be manufactured in the USA, it's a critical national security issue.
Two didn't reply, one replied but only to the first part of my letter. Good to see our servants hard at work.
Back to the keyboard.
I shall write to mine as well. That's a good idea.
This is one of those areas that Trump is talking about concerning our previous state of trade deals. It's not easy for an American company faced with regs over minimum wage and union demands to compete with foreign manufacturers who can get by paying 10 cents/ hr for labor. We need to add a few weights to their saddle bags.
We spent years fretting over our dependence on foreign oil, and took steps to correct that...Now we need to do it for independence from foreign sources of meds.
On top of regs, minimum wage, and unions, lets also include foreign governments that grant huge tax breaks to US companies that will relocate to their country. It's also important that we don't overlook the fact that every American with a 401k plan demands growth and return on investment that has driven corporations to seek out the tax advantages and reduced labor costs that has created the desire to offshore not just pharmaceuticals but also technology and defense manufacturing.
Is EVERYONE in the US willing to pay an additional 10+% in prices of goods and loose another 10+% on investment/retirement growth to re-shore our manufacturing? I'm thinking the answer is NO or we would have been doing this already.
I picked this info up from another thread here, today. Canada is so on-the-ball, it makes the US look almost like a failed state. I don't know why our suppliers/manufacturers aren't able to respond in this manner. This is how the much-vaunted free-enterprise system is supposed to work, but for some reason hasn't in the US. Read it and weep:
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Two Canadian distillery companies have switched to producing 80 percent alcohol hand sanitizer. Its NOT drinkable.
General Electric Canada has moved to a 24/7 production schedule. They are the largest maker of medical ventilators in my country. Clark paper products has tripled their production of the N95 masks. Three makers of surgical grade gloves are on 24/7 production schedules.
Air Canada and Sun Wing are offering free flights to stranded Canadians abroad. The date to file Income tax forms have been pushed back by a month. No evictions for a period of 6 months. Student loans have been deferred for 6 months. Immediate acceptance of applications for Employment Insurance. Seniors pensions will be increased by 25 percent for 6 months. Small business operators will be allowed to miss their utility and property tax payments for 6 months. Home mortgage payments will be forgiven for 6 months. The child tax credit will be increased by 25 percent for 6 months. Those who do not qualify for EI will get a monthly benefit of $1900 to be repaid over two years.
Canada has acted with speed and concern for the public here.
I would accept test kits and hand sanitizer (and masks, etc.) from Canada in a heartbeat, wouldn't you?. It really depends on which "foreign entity" we're talking about, doesn't it? Switzerland? You bet, why not? Russia? *cough* South Korea? Mayyybee. China? Fuggetaboutit!
On top of regs, minimum wage, and unions, lets also include foreign governments that grant huge tax breaks to US companies that will relocate to their country. It's also important that we don't overlook the fact that every American with a 401k plan demands growth and return on investment that has driven corporations to seek out the tax advantages and reduced labor costs that has created the desire to offshore not just pharmaceuticals but also technology and defense manufacturing.
Is EVERYONE in the US willing to pay an additional 10+% in prices of goods and loose another 10+% on investment/retirement growth to re-shore our manufacturing? I'm thinking the answer is NO or we would have been doing this already.
Good point. The economy is a complex system, so no simple answer will solve all problems. OTOH- the price of meds has not gone down because they're made overseas--but the profit per pill has gone up. Bringing the production home doesn't have to change the price at the drug store.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth
I picked this info up from another thread here, today. Canada is so on-the-ball, it makes the US look almost like a failed state. I don't know why our suppliers/manufacturers aren't able to respond in this manner. ….
I don't want to hijack the thread, but the short explanation is the unbelievably obstructive/restrictive nature of US regulations-- everything from manufacturing standards, but also to work rules, environmental impact studies & standards, health & safety precautions etc etc. Economists say that cr*p needlessly costs the average American $3000/yr.
I always hate to hear the news guys talk about "The Leader of the Free World..."...What Free World?
I always hate to hear the news guys talk about "The Leader of the Free World..."...What Free World?
Right. That's a pretty much obsolete concept from before the SU crashed. Russia now, supposedly, is a free country, even though it's being run by a former KGB guy. China: free? Not free? Kinda-sorta free, on a good day? So who's left, that's still in Iron Curtain territory--Cuba? N Korea? Is that it? Oh, Venezuela, maybe? (Scraping bottom of barrel...) And the US stopped leading the Free World, when it reneged on the Paris Accords and the Pacific free trade deal. The Free World has moved on without it (and so has China, free-trade-deal-wise).
OK, pardon the digression. I can't resist a good Cold War reference. So shoot me
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