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but its not really going to take off unless it makes sense cost-wise. is there any potential for a cost advantage?
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Originally Posted by Dakster
There will be when gas goes to $20/gal.
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Originally Posted by CaptainNJ
im not sure when that will happen but even if that did happen the fuel cell would have to contend with other alternatives.
Psychologists tell us that people primarily act out of self-interest, while retaining a deep seated predisposition towards altruism. The early adopters of disruptive technologies like solar and wind power and EVs and fuel cells include a lot of people who are comfortable paying a little more for products and services that are better for the environment than the current standard.
Our governments, on federal, state and local levels, have two key agendas behind their drives to implement green technologies... 1) to reduce American dependence on imported oil, and 2) to reduce pollution and environmental damage accruing from the use of fossil fuels.
In order to promote these commitments, which ultimately benefit all of us, standards have been raised in a number of key energy and pollution related areas, and financial incentives and penalties have been created to help overcome the natural cost advantages of entrenched mature technologies and fully sunk infrastructure.
In the short run this means that manufacturers have financial incentives to make and sell products that meet the new standards, and consumers have financial incentives to buy them, plus whatever operational gain there might be. So for example right now fully electric vehicles get a tax deduction for the manufacturer for each car sold, which allows them to sell those cars for a lower price than they would otherwise. And the consumer gets a tax deduction for buying the car, which makes it less expensive still, plus they enjoy the advantage of a per mile "fuel" cost about half as much as gas. Plus, in the near future the manufacturers have to meet stiffer fleet standards for gas mileage and emissions, and in California a certain percentage of the cars sold must be zero emissions or they will begin to incur financial penalties that will raise the prices of all vehicles they make. So now they are all in a horse race to bring out out compliant vehicles and to sell them. That's why you are seeing a flurry of new hybrids, plug-in hybrids, EVs, and fuel-cell cars, all trying to raise the average mpg rating of their product line, and lower the emissions. And yes, CaptainNJ, they will all have to contend with each other, and because there is no clear prediction of which technology will come out on top, the auto companies are working all the angles at the same time.
Then the technology will improve, prices will come down, there will be winners and losers in the shakeout, and eventually when all the "green" vehicles are on a par with gasoline and diesel, they can begin to raise the taxes on oil-based fuels enough to put their use at a disadvantage. That's not a viable tactic today because there is no good alternative, so higher prices on fuel raise the prices on food an everything else. But once green technologies are common, such as electric UPS trucks, then raising gas taxes will lower gas usage, and drive a wholesale shift over to vehicles with non-polluting electric motors.
In short, early adopters will buy them because they think it is the ecologically responsible thing to do, and then the masses will follow when they become less expensive to operate than ICE vehicles.
if i take a glance at the auto market, it looks to me like consumers are only going to buy if it makes financial sense. there arent enough early adopters and government doesnt seem to be making up the cost difference. i guess the government just needs to keep those options alive until companies can bring down the costs. for example, electric vehicles dont work financially. but if they can extend their range and reduce the cost of the cars, they may survive long enough to succeed. but that will come at a major cost to taxpayers, probably best to not let them know what that cost really is.
You might find a couple of utilities in the northwest with that mix. More important is an ev charged with coal fired electricity is still cleaner than gasoline powered vehicles.
More than a couple. We are 100% hydro.
Are you sure the second part of your statement is correct?? The TWO coal plants in the Northwest are the primary cause of HAZE in eastern Oregon and Washington. They are scheduled for closure.
Are you sure the second part of your statement is correct?? The TWO coal plants in the Northwest are the primary cause of HAZE in eastern Oregon and Washington. They are scheduled for closure.
A very small % of energy consumed in this country is from 100% green utilities.
The chart comparing emissions and fuel costs for a 100 mile trip are quite instructive.
Emissions and Fuel Cost for a 100-Mile Trip -Vehicle (compact sedans) -
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (pounds of CO2 equivalent) - Total Fuel Cost (U.S. Dollars)
Conventional 87 lb CO2 $13.36
Hybrid Electric 57 lb CO2 $8.78
Plug-in Hybrid Electric 62 lb CO2 $7.10
All-Electric 54 lb CO2 $3.74
The chart comparing emissions and fuel costs for a 100 mile trip are quite instructive.
Emissions and Fuel Cost for a 100-Mile Trip -Vehicle (compact sedans) -
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (pounds of CO2 equivalent) - Total Fuel Cost (U.S. Dollars)
Conventional 87 lb CO2 $13.36
Hybrid Electric 57 lb CO2 $8.78
Plug-in Hybrid Electric 62 lb CO2 $7.10
All-Electric 54 lb CO2 $3.74
What conventional vehicle are they using? My truck gets 16-18mpg on diesel. It probably puts out a lot more than 87lb of c02 per 100 miles. Our plug-in EV is mainly used on battery as we don't drive 100 miles between charges and it doesn't look like most people that have one do. (Go to voltstats.net).
If you are that concerned about CO2, a small PV array would offset our electric grid use 100% to charge the vehicle. A 1 KW system would over the course of the year balance out our usage for the ONE plug-in we have. Figuring 6 hrs of average useable daylight a day, 30 days a month, 1 kw in power is about 180KWH. I checked our usage, we use around 125-150 KWH a month. Granted, we only drive about 700 miles a month on the car. A high mileage user may need a 2 KW PV...
I noticed no CNG comparison, however, a little tidbit about CNG and home filling that I just learned. PHILL uses 800 watts and take an 1 hr. to pump GGE of .42 Gal. Your overnight fill-up costs what I spend to charge my plug-in and then you have to take the fuel cost into account... I researched this as I was contemplating a bi-fuel truck for my next truck.
Toyota touts hydrogen fuel vehicles despite criticism
Toyota is swinging back at the critics of their plans to bring Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles to market in 2015.
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Detroit — A top U.S. Toyota Motor Corp. executive strongly stood by its focus on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, defending their safety and dismissing criticism from the top executives at Tesla Motors, Nissan Motor Co. and others.
“I realize there is no shortage of naysayers regarding the viability of this technology and the infrastructure to support it,” said Bob Carter, senior vice president for automotive operations, Toyota Motor Sales USA Inc, at the Automotive News World Congress. “Personally, I don’t care what Elon, Carlos or Jonathan say about fuel cells. If they want to ‘plug in and tune out’ other technologies, that’s fine.”
He was referencing criticism from Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn among others, who favor electric vehicles as the answer.
“So competitors who dismiss fuel cells out of hand do so at their own peril,” he said.
Toyota unveiled its hydrogen fuel cell vehicle at at CES — the consumer electronics show — in Las Vegas last week, but hasn’t disclosed its volume plans. “We plan to bring a production version of this vehicle to market next year,” he said. “We truly believe it has the same potential as the first Prius. We’ve been working on this technology since 1992,” Carter said. “Trust me, Toyota would not have continued on this path for this long if it didn’t make good business sense. Fuel cell vehicles offer several advantages. They drive like electric cars but can be refueled like gasoline cars.”
And here's an article with pictures from the Detroit Auto Show about the Toyota Fuel Cell Car they showed, which is scheduled to hit the market in 2015.
i read an article yesterday about some Toyota guy saying hydrogen cells will be the next big thing and electric isn't the way to go. his response to the need for filling stations was basically that they will open them when they need them. the thing that I noticed that was missing was the reason why the hydrogen cell will be the next big thing. where is the advantage to the consumer other than less emissions? less emissions is fine and dandy, but nothing will be the next big thing unless its cost effective and convenient (unless you get the government to mandate it).
It's going to be interesting to see how Hydrogen becomes the next big thing. It is always the chicken and the egg problem. You won't put out a hyrdogren dispensing infrastructure nationwide (worldwide, really) if there is not any out there to use it. You can't build and sell something that uses it without a way to "refill" it.
Ideally, a home refilling station would be ideal. I think OpenD posted some stuff about a solar panel being used to split H out of water and bottle/store the hydrogen. It would at least get fuel cell vehicles out there, since most of us could use a high mileage, cheap to operate vehicle as one of our vehicles. Just like electric vehicles are OK for your around town vehicle right now. I wouldn't want it, if all I had was ONE vehicle - unless it had a way to use a commonly available fuel to use to replenish the electricity. At least until recharging stations are a whole lot more plentiful than they are now.
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Toyota touts hydrogen fuel vehicles despite criticism
