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Is it? I understand it has been deployed on at least one big solar farm in the California desert. And there's something similar being used in Kona, Hawai'i.
But the argument that because something hasn't been done yet it's not likely ever to be done ignores the fact that history is full of technical advances that hovered on the brink for years, until suddenly something clicked somewhere. Maybe some other development was needed first. Maybe the right opportunity needed to present itself, or the right sponsor. There are many different factors that can cause a critical breakthrough to occur.
In this case, I think the need for large scale energy storage to solve the intermittancy issue with renewable energy sources has created the kind of urgency that brings a lot of attention to bear. That may enough to push this technology past the tipping point. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it.
Intermittancy is way overblown as a problem. The best solution for it is direct load control not batteries.
The argument that because something hasn't been done means that it is likely to happen this time ignores rational thought.
The argument that because something hasn't been done means that it is likely to happen this time ignores rational thought.
I never said that, and don't think it. But saying "If it were that easy, it would have already been done," is irrational too. Failures in the past don't determine the future.
I never said that, and don't think it. But saying "If it were that easy, it would have already been done," is irrational too. Failures in the past don't determine the future.
If you study Bayesian Statistics it's call a prior. It's not just rational it's quantifiable.
If you study Bayesian Statistics it's call a prior. It's not just rational it's quantifiable.
Sorry, I don't regard Beyesian Statistics as a reliable way to predict technological breakthroughs, because there are so often random elements involved which are only quantifiable in retrospect.
Intermittancy is way overblown as a problem. The best solution for it is direct load control not batteries.
That's opinion, not fact, and it is at odds with most current thinking. When a cloud passes in front of a solar bank, what you want is a fast reacting storage device to pick up the dip in output. Or if you have no wind one night. Both SolarCity and GM, as well as others, already have LiON battery solutions on the market, but for scaling up to larger applications the liquid metal or "dirt" batteries seem more appropriate.
Sorry, I don't regard Beyesian Statistics as a reliable way to predict technological breakthroughs, because there are so often random elements involved which are only quantifiable in retrospect.
That settles it. YOU don't regard Beyesian Statistics [sic] as reliable.
I wonder what we use statistics for if not to help with random stochastic events.
Not in any way. It absolutely is the ultimate goal of developing renewable energy sources to someday be able to shut down all fossil fuel generation and leave the remaining coal, oil, and gas in the ground.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever
That settles it. YOU don't regard Beyesian Statistics [sic] as reliable. I wonder what we use statistics for if not to help with random stochastic events.
For ordinary random stochastic events, like analysing when an icecicle is likely to melt enough to fall from the edge of the porch roof, hey, knock yourself out with that stuff.
but the truly serendipitous stuff, like the delivery guy getting the wrong address and coming up on the porch and knocking that icecicle off prematurely... sorry, no.
And that kind of serendipity, that sort of unpredictability or randomness in the emergence of true breakthroughs sometimes just smashes through that sappy saying, "If it were that easy, it would have already been done."
Matter of fact, we've even seen significant cases in which the elusive solution turned out to have been much simpler than anyone suspected, which is why it took so long to find the solution.
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