Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change (Texas, quotes, improve)
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By the way.. I dont want to take away from the great info and history Mircea is bringing up on the glacial and interglacial periods. Mircea pointed out that we are headed for a warming period just through the normal cycles and all the things he mentioned will happen regardless. Its just the rate of change that is alarming (among a long list of other things..).
One more look at the "warming happened in the past so it must be happening now regardless of the human influence" idea.
I wondered where in the cycle of warm to cool periods or glacial to interglacial cycle the planet is now as this should give some indication of whether we are heading into some crazy warm period and should expect the rapid increase in temp we have seen. Turns out we are not heading into some crazy warm period and instead would have naturally been heading into some sort of ice age beginning in about 5000 years.
For the last 600,000 years Ice Ages have followed a 100,000 year cycle coinciding with the Milankowitz cycle
The Earth’s climate appears currently to be in a highly unstable state, with sawtooth-like oscillations every 100,000 years flipping between long glaciations and shorter warm inter-glacial periods. The onset of a new Ice Age is a gradual process ending when temperatures reach a lower limit flipping back rapidly to a warmer phase for 10-20,000 years. The fits demonstrate that the driver for this instability are the two cycles – eccentricity and obliquity
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Below is a figure from this page. The black line shows the parameter delta 018 and when its high represents colder temperatures and a glacier period.
The blue line is the sum of the Milankowitz Eccentricity and Oblicity cycles which are the primary drivers of glacier to interglacier periods.
When the blue line (Milankowitz) line goes high, it tends to indicate a cold period.
Right now we are at the peak of the warm and would be naturally heading towards another ice age. Note that the present and future times are to the left in graph.
Quote:
It is found that the Earth is currently at its maximum interglacial global temperature and will start cooling within the next 2-5000 years. 20,000 years from now the Earth will likely be in the depths of another major Ice Age.
Here is another plot that shows we "were" about to turn the corner to a colder period. The blue line being high represent warmer periods and low colder periods. CO2 is shown also (red) and you can see that in the past, it "followed" temperature changes. Not the case now as we have artificially and exponentially increased the CO2 level.
Bottom line.. Sure it was warmer "sometime" in the past but you really have to look at when that happened and what was going on with the sun cycles at the time. It looks to me that in the near future time frame, we should not be expecting some weird dramatic temperature increase.
If you want to feel good about something.. maybe our dumping CO2 green house gas into the atmosphere actually countering a cooling trend but apparently we are going to WAY over do things.
By the way.. I dont want to take away from the great info and history Mircea is bringing up on the glacial and interglacial periods. Mircea pointed out that we are headed for a warming period just through the normal cycles and all the things he mentioned will happen regardless. Its just the rate of change that is alarming (among a long list of other things..).
Is it really alarming to you? Why?
You can't control it. You can move somewhere that you feel may be safer and not as "alarming."
I picked a 20 year period between 1930 and 1950 and compared the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes to the 20 year period between 1994 and 2014.
1930 to 1950 had 115 hurricanes and 45 major hurricanes
1994 to 2014 had 153 hurricanes and 67 major hurricanes.
Using the math I learned in grade school (vs Fox news math),
it looks like that hurricanes have gone up by 33% in recent years vs 1930 to 1950
Major hurricanes have gone UP by 48% in recent years vs 1930 to 1950
You really need to fact check everything. Its disappointing that someone I should be able to trust is willing to distort things.
I picked a 20 year period between 1930 and 1950 and compared the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes to the 20 year period between 1994 and 2014.
1930 to 1950 had 115 hurricanes and 45 major hurricanes
1994 to 2014 had 153 hurricanes and 67 major hurricanes.
Using the math I learned in grade school (vs Fox news math),
it looks like that hurricanes have gone up by 33% in recent years vs 1930 to 1950
Major hurricanes have gone UP by 48% in recent years vs 1930 to 1950
You really need to fact check everything. Its disappointing that someone I should be able to trust is willing to distort things.
Cherry picking.
Go by 50 yr periods and the rate has fallen by 20%.(Remember- there's a 60 yr weather cycle. Choosing a time frame less than that only gives partial data.) Last 30 yrs has also seen fewer Cat IV & V storms. Also note, the data you cited was for The Atlantic Storm Basin. Many of the storms reported over the last 50 yrs- the satellite era- never made landfall. Before satellites, we had very poor reporting from ships at sea. Many more storms probably existed but were not reported.
Storm intensity is determined by air pressure differences, not temp differences- a point ignored by those with an agenda. Ever do the "hot air convection detector" experiment in 3rd grade? Hot air rises-- slowly. Check the isobar weather map--when the bars are packed closely (ie- high pressure gradient) winds blow faster. Pretty basic meteorology.
If you're going to use science, use it correctly. If you don't, it's pseudo-science.
Last edited by guidoLaMoto; 09-17-2018 at 10:31 AM..
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How About Fixing The Earth Problem With Emailed Gifts?
HadCRUT4 (°C) from 1989, grouped by US President.
