Who's Real Estate market will bounce back sooner? (Greenville: sales, condos)

[Scientifical Madness]

Which RE market do you all think will bounce back sooner and be a more stable market in the future? Greenville or Asheville?

Thanks for your vote and any additional input is definitely welcome...

[Scientifical Madness]

More votes please...

[myrc60]

Weekends tend to be slow on the forum you'll probably see more votes during the week.

I voted Greenville because our home prices aren't as high as Asheville's are.

[Huckleberry3911948]

dont know those 2 areas but they are building condos like crazy here. somebody knows something i dont.

[gvsteve]

Greenville never really crashed, so it's hard to say that it will "bounce back."

[myrc60]

Originally Posted by gvsteve

Greenville never really crashed, so it's hard to say that it will "bounce back."

While that is mostly true I believe the area's market has been at a standstill for nearly a year. We did lose some value but not as much as other places.

[ckeegan]

Between the lower overall cost of living, lower median home price, and lower property taxes; I personally think Greenville is the obvious answer.

Of course I am slightly biased, but I'd be curious to see the results on the Asheville forum. Checking now...

...I figured they would vote for Greenville over there too.

[Scientifical Madness]

What do you think about this post from an Asheville poster who voted for Asheville...


1. A strong professional services sector, which has brought hundreds of jobs to the Asheville economy.
2. A strong "green" economic presence, such as green homebuilders.
3. A consistently strong population growth, which keeps bringing new money into the economy.
4. A strong tourism and restaurant industry.
5. A major presence in health care and health care services.
6. A revived manufacturing industry.



Greenville didn't make the top ten list of overvalued home prices.
Simply repeating the same old illogical, irrational conclusions doesn't make them any more true. But of course, we know you're not interested in the truth; you're only interested in manipulating people's opinions to keep them from moving to "paradise under attack".

You have to understand how they are defining "overvalued" in order for that to have any meaning whatsoever. Once you understand that, you realize that totally irrelevant conclusions are being drawn based on the data.

First of all, we're dealing with averages here, which distort the data. For example, Asheville has a large number of really expensive homes, due to the large, wealthy retiree population. So these big numbers are going to skew the statistics. While the market for those homes is understandably horrid, the market for the average person (200-300K) is simply not that bad. So the data is misleading, and to conclude that something is "overvalued" strictly on these numbers is absolutely foolish.

Second, to define whether or not something has "value" or not is more complicated than looking at a bare number. People like to throw around numbers because they seem scientific and objective -- that's not true at all.

In order to determine whether something is overvalued or not, you have too look at the entire picture. For example, when you consider that:

1. Asheville is a retirement mecca that attracts wealthy retirees from all over the country. This fact makes Asheville real estate inherently more valuable.

2. The price-to-income ratios that people use to show that homes are overvalued are misleading, at best. They don't include the millions of dollars that wealthy, retired folks bring to Asheville, and that they spend in the local economy (including for real estate). They also don't include the "trust fund kids" population, which also accounts for additional economic activity.

3. Asheville has an abundance of natural beauty that make it unique. Location, location, location.

4. Asheville is the only semblance of a city in Western NC -- you have to drive hours to get to the next biggest city of that size. That means you not only have the natural beauty that is inherent in rural places, but you also have the cultural attractions that many cities offer. Big bonus.

5. Asheville's geological nature makes it difficult to expand a great deal -- those big rock-like thingies make it awfully tough to overdevelop. So you have limited development opportunities, which increases the desirability of existing land, driving up it's value.

[ckeegan]

Originally Posted by Scientifical Madness

What do you think about this post from an Asheville poster who voted for Asheville...


1. A strong professional services sector, which has brought hundreds of jobs to the Asheville economy.
2. A strong "green" economic presence, such as green homebuilders.
3. A consistently strong population growth, which keeps bringing new money into the economy.
4. A strong tourism and restaurant industry.
5. A major presence in health care and health care services.
6. A revived manufacturing industry.

I personally think the exact same things could be said about Greenville, but almost all on a higher level:
1. A strong corporate headquarter presence, which has brought thousands of jobs to the Greenville/Upstate economy.
2. A strong "green" economic presence, such as green homebuilders. (I purchased my home almost four years ago, built by an Energy Star certified builder, and still exceeds Energy Star standards)
3. A consistently strong population growth, which keeps bringing new money into the economy. (Greenville is part of a larger MSA, which grew at a higher rate than Asheville from 2000 to 2008)
4. A strong (possibly stronger than Asheville) restaurant industry, but I'd probably (maybe) give them slightly more in the tourism category.
5. A major presence in health care and health care services. Greenville Hospital System, largest in South Carolina.
6. A revived manufacturing industry. (BMW, etc, etc, etc, etc)
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7. Lower overall cost-of-living (18% lower overall)
8. Higher projected future job growth.
9. 91% lower annual average snowfall rate, and higher average number of sunny days. (people move for less snow, and more sun, not reversed)

In the April 2009 Money Magazine article, "When Will Home Prices Hit Bottom, Already?", Greenville was named as one of the first markets to recover, with their projection of 2nd quarter of 2009.

I'm sure people will love to add to this list...

[ckeegan]

Wouldn't let me edit above, but I wanted to throw this out there also. Sales of existing single-family homes in Greater Greenville were up 8% in May 2009, compared to April 2009.