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Old 05-25-2012, 06:35 AM
 
4,183 posts, read 6,296,933 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whtviper1 View Post
Since to many people need a link otherwise it isn't true -

Here is the Bureau of Labor Statistics from the US Department of Labor.

Column U3 in the table is the reported and defined unemployment rate we are used to seeing, Hawaii was 7.1% in this table. Not so bad right?

Well, not really - as I and others pointed out - that really doesn't tell the whole story.

Column U4: Now we have the discouraged workers - they aren't counted. They aren't counted because they didn't look in the past 4 weeks because they think nothing is available to them. But they want to work. Now we jump to 7.6%.

Column U5: Now we have marginally attached workers - they aren't counted. They also want to work - they just used a different reason than discouraged workers. Now we are at 8.9%. Uh oh.

Column U6: Now we have the group working part time - who want to work full-time - called involuntary part-time workers. They work less than 35 hours a week. They aren't counted. Now we jump to 14.8%.

The employment picture is not as rosey as one may think.

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization for States

That's all fine and dandy except....that's not what we were talking about.

I was reacting to your statement that the unemployment rate does not count workers who have lost their benefits. That statement is wrong. The BLS clearly states that the unemployment rate reflects total unemployment, not just those receiving unemployment benefits.
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Old 05-25-2012, 12:35 PM
 
Location: Hawaii-Puna District
3,752 posts, read 11,026,564 times
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The stats don't count people on welfare either - and the islands have a lot of them.
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Old 05-25-2012, 01:26 PM
 
Location: Kahala
11,972 posts, read 16,397,304 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ndfmnlf View Post
That's all fine and dandy except....that's not what we were talking about.

I was reacting to your statement that the unemployment rate does not count workers who have lost their benefits. That statement is wrong. The BLS clearly states that the unemployment rate reflects total unemployment, not just those receiving unemployment benefits.
My post wasn't a rebuttel of that statement - my post was meant as the rate for Hawaii isn't as good as it appears. - but, since you'd like to have a conversation I'll revisit the topic.

Here on page 1 of the attached says this:

Today, the 9.8 percent figure represents only the number of people receiving unemployment compensation. It does not include the 5.4 million who have exhausted their unemployment compensation benefits but are still looking for a job (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009e),

http://business.troy.edu/JHRE/Articles/PDF/3-4/34.pdf
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Old 05-25-2012, 01:49 PM
 
Location: Volcano
12,969 posts, read 27,019,950 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ndfmnlf View Post
I was reacting to your statement that the unemployment rate does not count workers who have lost their benefits. That statement is wrong. The BLS clearly states that the unemployment rate reflects total unemployment, not just those receiving unemployment benefits.
No, they clearly state that the U3 figure you quoted reflects SOME of the Total Unemployment, including those who have actively looked for work in th last 4 weeks, but not the "Discouraged," and they go on to say:
"Note that, in the table and in the comparisons below, the unemployment rates (U-3) that are shown are derived directly from the CPS, because this is the only source of data for the various components. As a result, these U-3 measures may differ from the official state unemployment rates for the same period. The latter are estimates developed from statistical models that greatly improve the reliability of the top-side labor force and unemployment estimates."
In other words, the U3 figure, while a standard for comparison, is a "feel good" figure, and doesn't tell the whole story. That's what the rest of us are reacting against.
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Old 05-25-2012, 02:00 PM
 
4,183 posts, read 6,296,933 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whtviper1 View Post
My post wasn't a rebuttel of that statement - my post was meant as the rate for Hawaii isn't as good as it appears. - but, since you'd like to have a conversation I'll revisit the topic.

Here on page 1 of the attached says this:

Today, the 9.8 percent figure represents only the number of people receiving unemployment compensation. It does not include the 5.4 million who have exhausted their unemployment compensation benefits but are still looking for a job (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009e),

http://business.troy.edu/JHRE/Articles/PDF/3-4/34.pdf
The link you provided is from 2009, from a commentator who has written an opinion on how the unemployment rate is to be interpreted. It is not from the BLS itself, the agency that actually does the data collection and reporting. The original link I provided specifically explains the position of the BLS refuting such an interpretation. The BLS maintains that the unemployment rate is a measure of total unemployment, not just of those who are receiving unemployment benefits.
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Old 05-26-2012, 07:24 PM
 
Location: Hawaii-Puna District
3,752 posts, read 11,026,564 times
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Does that unemployment rate take into effect Hawaii's huge number of people on welfare or making a bare living by doing odd cash jobs?
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Old 05-26-2012, 09:13 PM
 
Location: Hawai'i
1,392 posts, read 2,913,781 times
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Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

OK, threw that in for fun. I haven't been following HI's unemployment since we're personally all set in that area, but in SoFla, a place I lived for a long time before moving to America's Third World, it seems that almost all of my friends are un- or under-employed there.

Unemployment where I live now (a territory) has always been high, but the major employer just shuttered and now, well, I'd guess we are at about 25%, but most of those people are fleeing. This makes for a very weird statistic, indeed. There will be way fewer people "unemployed" as they leave island for other opportunities, but the impact on other businesses and local gummint will be the same...a whole lot fewer people paying taxes, eating out, buying stuff, etc.

In other words, there is always a big picture, and unemployment is just once slice of the pie chart.
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