Should Hawaii start lifting restrictions for certain islands? (income, restaurant)

[CHRockwell]

Originally Posted by Arktikos

Yes, but only after a 14 day quarantine. I don’t see Hawaii lifting that anytime soon. Maybe not this year at all!

Yeah that is what I am trying to figure out. If that is in place I will have to cancel

[prospectheightsresident]

Originally Posted by Arktikos

Yes, but only after a 14 day quarantine. I don’t see Hawaii lifting that anytime soon. Maybe not this year at all!

If Hawaiian leaders refused to lift the 14 day quarantine for the rest of the year while the rest of the country was opening up, then the state would probably be financially ruined for a long time. And I wouldn't expect Congress to rush to bail out a single state that took such drastic, prolonged measures.

[eastside14]

This could be the game changer.

From Bloomberg 5/3: Roche Holding AG became the latest company to win emergency U.S. approval for a coronavirus antibody test and promised a fast scale-up of the tool that policy makers hope will smooth the reopening of economies.

The Swiss giant expects production of the test to reach the high double-digit millions by June and pass the 100 million monthly threshold later this year. The test looks for antibodies in blood that have been raised to fight off the virus that causes Covid-19.

Roche’s version runs on a high-volume instrument that can produce a single result in 18 minutes and as many as 300 results in an hour, the company said in a statement Sunday after receiving emergency authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

From WSJ 5/3: Roche announced that its test is 100% accurate at detecting coronavirus antibodies and 99.8% accurate at ruling out the presence of those antibodies, meaning only one in 500 tests will get a false positive.

[brightdoglover]

Originally Posted by eastside14

This could be the game changer.

...
From WSJ 5/3: Roche announced that its test is 100% accurate at detecting coronavirus antibodies and 99.8% accurate at ruling out the presence of those antibodies, meaning only one in 500 tests will get a false positive.

Any info about whether a positive antibody test confirms immunity for any period of time? While this is good news for data collection, still don't know about immunity.

[Rain Monkey]

Originally Posted by brightdoglover

Any info about whether a positive antibody test confirms immunity for any period of time? While this is good news for data collection, still don't know about immunity.

Confirms immunity for any length of time? I don't think that anyone is prepared to answer that question at this point in time. Still learning about the virus, however antibody testing, continued community surveilance testing for the virus and follow up contact tracing are incredibly important tools.

To complicate matters, it is possible RNA remnants of the virus that remain in a patient might suggest re-infection when retested, although the patient isn't infected. It's might be just a bunch of inactive bits of Covid 19 RNA floating around, and nobody that I am aware of has confirmed this, yet. Still a big mystery.

This virus is new, and really nobody know squat about it. Need more time to learn and understand the virus' biology. I think we're getting there, it's just not a straight line.

[rya96797]

idk.... i wouldn't say the antibody test is useless, but it's pretty much only good to see how far it spread in the community. Since it's not lifelong like some other vaccines, it's hard to rely on unless it can measure the level of antibodies and accurately predict how long it'll confer immunity.

What they actually need to reopen travel is a quick tester at the airports. They invented 5 minute testers already, just needs to be on a larger scale. To get past check-in, you need to pass the test. And I envision this wouldn't be forever either, once they have vaccines and treatments, people will just be treating it like a different version of the flu that comes back yearly.

[brightdoglover]

Originally Posted by rya96797

idk.... i wouldn't say the antibody test is useless, but it's pretty much only good to see how far it spread in the community. Since it's not lifelong like some other vaccines, it's hard to rely on unless it can measure the level of antibodies and accurately predict how long it'll confer immunity.
...

I meant it's useless for a personal assessment of immunity or exposure. If my antibody test is positive, I will likely schedule another one in a few weeks. I do know there's is no evidence of immunity on any timeline. I'm just really curious. I do know that it helps with communal data collection.

I don't see it becoming a requirement for anything, including travel, until there is any firm evidence that it shows immunity. And the only way to get that evidence is over time, a lot of time.

[whtviper1]

Originally Posted by Arktikos

Yes, but only after a 14 day quarantine. I don’t see Hawaii lifting that anytime soon. Maybe not this year at all!

While I believe Hawaii will be late to reopen to tourists - once Vegas and California open, Hawaii - in my opinion will open shortly thereafter - within weeks after them. I think Vegas may open June 1. I'll forecast Hawaii anywhere from mid-June to mid-July at the latest. With that opening - I think tourists will only trickle in - the pent up demand of tourism is mitigated with depression era unemployment around the world.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by whtviper1

While I believe Hawaii will be late to reopen to tourists - once Vegas and California open, Hawaii - in my opinion will open shortly thereafter - within weeks after them. I think Vegas may open June 1. I'll forecast Hawaii anywhere from mid-June to mid-July at the latest. With that opening - I think tourists will only trickle in - the pent up demand of tourism is mitigated with depression era unemployment around the world.

You may well be right about mitigation of return numbers ... I’m not arguing one way or the other. But I’ll note that the lion’s share of unemployment is for folks not in higher earning brackets. And Hawaii tourism caters to people with pretty good incomes. It ain’t cheap. Add to that the pent up desire for the serving industries to get traffic flowing again. Likely will be some pretty attractive rates for - well - everything.

[whtviper1]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

You may well be right about mitigation of return numbers ... I’m not arguing one way or the other. But I’ll note that the lion’s share of unemployment is for folks not in higher earning brackets. And Hawaii tourism caters to people with pretty good incomes. It ain’t cheap. Add to that the pent up desire for the serving industries to get traffic flowing again. Likely will be some pretty attractive rates for - well - everything.

Hawaii tourism generally mimics employment, one only needs to look at the 2008-2010 numbers - even if the high earners are employed - many will be afraid to set foot on a plane until a vaccine or cure is found.

While I anticipate deals (airfare will be low with low oil prices) I don't anticipate hotel prices to be as attractive as many think they will be.