Should Hawaii start lifting restrictions for certain islands? (credit card, budget)

[prospectheightsresident]

Originally Posted by whtviper1

I'm just counting the Hawaii portion

Gotcha. I'll say that's what makes me suspicious or at least question why 40% said what they did. Many are making out better with the state benefits and beefed up federal benefits than they did pre-covid. I'm guessing if most felt that they could not afford it, they might be setting the extra dough aside for when the federal portion runs out and things still remain uncertain But it's definitely doesn't seem to be because they didn't receive enough cash to pay for their rent.

[whtviper1]

Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident

Gotcha. I'll say that's what makes me suspicious or at least question why 40% said what they did.

Maybe

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/0...eir-rent-june/

[rya96797]

Better pray federal stimulus unemployment doesnt end. people are only ok right now because they can make more not working. Once you cut their benefits to 60% of working salary (even less because they need to pay their own medical), we're going to see a lot of unrest.

Tourism needs to open to some small degree so businesses and people can continue on life support mode. I'm hearing that the Aug 1 date is already being pushed back, just not announced to the public yet. Any "temporary" pushback likely means "indefinite" until counts go way back down, which likely isn't happening. So we are likely screwed.

[pj737]

They will keep pushing any substantial opening back as new "waves" are inevitable. The $600/week (although will likely be reduced slightly) will probably continue for 3-6 months. Feds will start to provide necessary bailout for states (bankrupt UI) in the next 30-60 days. New rounds of relief funds for all businesses with additional support for those in hospitality. Many hotels will be (virtually) shut down completely til Q1 or Q2 2021. Trump is heavily invested in hospitality and will ensure the industry stays afloat for as long as it takes. Likely another $4-$6 trillion in stimulus before a vaccine is widely available, vigorously and thoroughly tested and accepted by a reasonable percentage of the population in summer 2021. This virus isn't going away anytime soon. Inflation after 2022 will be interesting but at this point the money printing to infinity is essentially inevitable.

I just pulled all of that out of my behind. But that's my guess.

[prospectheightsresident]

Originally Posted by pj737

They will keep pushing any substantial opening back as new "waves" are inevitable. The $600/week (although will likely be reduced slightly) will probably continue for 3-6 months. Feds will start to provide necessary bailout for states (bankrupt UI) in the next 30-60 days. New rounds of relief funds for all businesses with additional support for those in hospitality. Many hotels will be (virtually) shut down completely til Q1 or Q2 2021. Trump is heavily invested in hospitality and will ensure the industry stays afloat for as long as it takes. Likely another $4-$6 trillion in stimulus before a vaccine is widely available, vigorously and thoroughly tested and accepted by a reasonable percentage of the population in summer 2021. This virus isn't going away anytime soon. Inflation after 2022 will be interesting but at this point the money printing to infinity is essentially inevitable.

I just pulled all of that out of my behind. But that's my guess.

Sounds good in theory. And if Trump was a dictator, I'd agree. But he still needs to work with Congress to get a lot of this done, so I'm not sure what will happen. I am not holding my breath for an extension of the beefed up unemployment benefits beyond a month or two, which I think will be worked out when they pass a bill providing for another one-time payment to individuals.

[rya96797]

Originally Posted by pj737

They will keep pushing any substantial opening back as new "waves" are inevitable. The $600/week (although will likely be reduced slightly) will probably continue for 3-6 months. Feds will start to provide necessary bailout for states (bankrupt UI) in the next 30-60 days. New rounds of relief funds for all businesses with additional support for those in hospitality. Many hotels will be (virtually) shut down completely til Q1 or Q2 2021. Trump is heavily invested in hospitality and will ensure the industry stays afloat for as long as it takes. Likely another $4-$6 trillion in stimulus before a vaccine is widely available, vigorously and thoroughly tested and accepted by a reasonable percentage of the population in summer 2021. This virus isn't going away anytime soon. Inflation after 2022 will be interesting but at this point the money printing to infinity is essentially inevitable.

I just pulled all of that out of my behind. But that's my guess.

We're all entitled to our own opinions bro.

The challenge is that if Hawaii isn't in sync with the rest of the nation, and it wasn't during the 2008 crisis, then it will suffer worse than the mainland and an extended period of time. The reasoning is that the laws and stimulus passed at the federal level are designed for the majority of the united states. So if the rest of the states economies are more open, and they're suffering less unemployment, federal stimulus won't be aggressive enough to meet Hawaii's needs. Hawaii needs to open to some degree, at least to function on "life-support".

On the republican side, not sure if extending the unemployment is even in the equation. Instead they're proposing a "get back to work bonus".

The president does have influence over whatever measures are passed, but it is the job of the senate and house to draft and approve bills. With deep disagreements between the senate and house, nobody knows what relief could look like. Hell, they could be as disfunctional as our 1 party system and do absolutely nothing by the end of July.

[prospectheightsresident]

Originally Posted by rya96797

We're all entitled to our own opinions bro.

The challenge is that if Hawaii isn't in sync with the rest of the nation, and it wasn't during the 2008 crisis, then it will suffer worse than the mainland and an extended period of time. The reasoning is that the laws and stimulus passed at the federal level are designed for the majority of the united states. So if the rest of the states economies are more open, and they're suffering less unemployment, federal stimulus won't be aggressive enough to meet Hawaii's needs. Hawaii needs to open to some degree, at least to function on "life-support".

On the republican side, not sure if extending the unemployment is even in the equation. Instead they're proposing a "get back to work bonus".

The president does have influence over whatever measures are passed, but it is the job of the senate and house to draft and approve bills. With deep disagreements between the senate and house, nobody knows what relief could look like. Hell, they could be as disfunctional as our 1 party system and do absolutely nothing by the end of July.

Yep.

While I can appreciate the care that Hawaii has taken to keep covid numbers down in the state, it's go-it-alone approach harmed it much more than other states have been harmed (financially). In my view, the federal government should not be expected to provide a special bailout to those states that suffer undue financial hardship because they chose to be much more restrictive than other states. Nor should the federal government bail out those states struggling to make unduly generous pension payments to public sector workers as a result of covid and other reasons.

And Hawaii shows no sign of letting up either as Ige mentioned that the August 1 reopening date (which was already scheduled to be a disaster on the testing aspect alone) is being pushed back.

[whtviper1]

I don't think the Senate has the appetite to bailout states.

I do think CARES will get extended - they are floating a $40,000 income level right now

PPP bought some time, but the clock is ticking. Places are regularly going out of business in the State - I expect an acceleration of that to happen soon.

The eviction and foreclosure moratoriums will end at some point - maybe soon. Watch for a real estate collapse when that happens over the next 6-9 months.

At this point, it doesn't really matter if Aug 1 is extended or not - test results within 72 hours aren't available practically anywhere.

They need a plan. They should have started a pilot testing on arrival for residents. The 72 hour test result plan without partnerships or no tests on arrival were doomed from the announcement

If they get an influx of visitors without test results, and they may - don't expect much in terms of quarantine - Caldwell stated the other day the police can't handle the low numbers we already have let alone larger numbers.

[pj737]

Originally Posted by whtviper1

I don't think the Senate has the appetite to bailout states.

I do think CARES will get extended - they are floating a $40,000 income level right now

PPP bought some time, but the clock is ticking. Places are regularly going out of business in the State - I expect an acceleration of that to happen soon.

The eviction and foreclosure moratoriums will end at some point - maybe soon. Watch for a real estate collapse when that happens over the next 6-9 months. .

Either the feds will loan the money or grant the money to states (or a combination)... they will need to go with either or both options once UI benefits go dry. The CARES funds alone will not keep the vast majority of unemployed individuals afloat.

Agree that the acceleration of business failures is inevitable... which will accelerate unemployment... which will accelerate bankruptcies, loan defaults, evictions and foreclosures. This is why I think the feds will take quantitative easing to infinity. If they see all of this unfolding, why wouldn't they continue with "business as usual" for another 6-12 months?

Ultimately I think the feds will continue to bail virtually everyone out. What difference does it make if they print another 2, 3 or 5 trillion and put it towards businesses and individuals? Does it really matter? The can just keeps getting kicked down the road. It will all "disappear" once inflation comes back and it will likely do so at a fairly rapid pace in a few years. I don't buy that we will knowingly and willingly enter a depression when the feds have made it clear that there is no limit to the printing of money.

I guess I am not gloom and doom because unlike the last recession, the govt has options this time around. I also don't see real estate crashing like many are claiming. Sure, the eviction and foreclosure moratorium is building a potential "wave". But at the same time, when you talk to bankers, people are still paying their mortgages. I have read some unsubstantiated claims online that rent isn't being paid by 10, 20, 30+ percent of tenants but I have yet to have one of my tenants miss any payments (even if they are given the option). Anecdotally, other friends that own investment RE are not having any issues. Property managers are also only have minor issues for the most part. There are much fewer sales going on but there are also much fewer properties available. I have no idea what the market is like as I have not been following but I have not heard of any real price drops... yet.

If the UI benefits die out and relief isn't provided to the extent noted in my last post, yes it will likely be a complete bloodbath in terms of real estate crashing. But I just don't see why the govt would allow it when they can be proactive while looking at the obvious writing on the wall. Besides, real estate is a very effective hedge against inflation; most would agree this will be an issue downstream. While I'm sure many will wait it out to get "deals", there are many others that will move cash into property just for some cash flow. You can barely squeeze out 1% in a no-penalty CD or high yield online account these days... 3 or 4% annual NOI on cash is pretty darn good. Bonds are laughable and gold is at an all-time high. I am clearly biased having an RE portfolio in the isles for decades... but I would be surprised to see a major correction here with the exception of commercial real estate on strictly commercially zoned land; that will take a dump for sure. If I was guessing, I'm thinking the peak to trough would be in the 10-25% correction range which is long overdue for the state anyway. Old generational money areas (e.g. urban core) will see the smallest corrections while newer money areas like west Oahu will see a larger offset in valuations.

[pj737]

Originally Posted by rya96797

We're all entitled to our own opinions bro.

The challenge is that if Hawaii isn't in sync with the rest of the nation, and it wasn't during the 2008 crisis, then it will suffer worse than the mainland and an extended period of time. The reasoning is that the laws and stimulus passed at the federal level are designed for the majority of the united states. So if the rest of the states economies are more open, and they're suffering less unemployment, federal stimulus won't be aggressive enough to meet Hawaii's needs. Hawaii needs to open to some degree, at least to function on "life-support".

On the republican side, not sure if extending the unemployment is even in the equation. Instead they're proposing a "get back to work bonus".

The president does have influence over whatever measures are passed, but it is the job of the senate and house to draft and approve bills. With deep disagreements between the senate and house, nobody knows what relief could look like. Hell, they could be as disfunctional as our 1 party system and do absolutely nothing by the end of July.

I just didn't want to come off as a know-it-all because in this world nobody knows jack squat. It's always interesting to get opinions on how things will go. I don't get my panties in a bunch because everyone from all sides have some great arguments. Hard to pull into any one team these days.

Definitely agree about being out of sync with the rest of the nation. But now that I'm seeing the numbers skyrocket in other states, I think we're all in the same boat and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. If coronavirus died down and wasn't increasing in other states like it is right now (and just in the last couple weeks or so), I would agree, we'd be swimming all alone in the middle of the Pacific with very little help relative to what we ultimately need. This has proven to be an extremely stubborn virus that just won't let up. If it's this bad in the middle of heat waves when people are trying to get out of enclosed/confined spaces, imagine what things will look like in the mainland when people are forced to huddle up to stay warm.

I don't think the govt should be coming out and saying "$600 for everyone until we find a vaccine". That would be reckless and irresponsible. And send the wrong message. But at the end of the day, I just don't see how they can pull that rug out given the situation.