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Old 04-21-2020, 12:34 AM
 
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Oahu, an island of over 1 million people is seeing some pretty low case numbers reported recently, from 0 a day - maybe 10 a day. Today we reported 0 new cases. Should islands with low numbers start a limited reopening to at least get some sort of economic activity going? Or is it still too early?
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Old 04-21-2020, 12:52 AM
 
Location: DMV Area/NYC/Honolulu
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I have mixed feelings.

On the one hand, I recommend following the CDC guidelines, which I believe do allow for Hawaii to start lifting restrictions either now or relatively soon.

On the other hand, I wouldn't lift the quarantine restrictions for visitors, which presents a conundrum of sorts. Indeed, as more locals would be out on the streets, it would be easier for tourists to blend in and escape following the quarantine rules, which would risk having cases spike. With more people on the streets working, eating out, etc., I'd imagine that visits by local and state police to check in to see if tourists are following quarantine would be even more nonexistent as they tend to regular police work. Thus, it may make sense to keep things locked down until conditions on the mainland improve more.
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Old 04-21-2020, 07:08 AM
 
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I’m in the camp of Dr. David Katz and Dr. John Ioannidis of “herd immunity.” Of course keep the elderly and vulnerable in quarantine while everyone else goes about their daily lives until this virus has killed itself off. Unfortunately these two doctors along with many others who have suggested herd immunity have gone unnoticed by the media because it doesn’t fit their narrative.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/o...istancing.html
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Old 04-21-2020, 08:39 AM
 
Location: On the water.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nyfinestbxtf View Post
I’m in the camp of Dr. David Katz and Dr. John Ioannidis of “herd immunity.” Of course keep the elderly and vulnerable in quarantine while everyone else goes about their daily lives until this virus has killed itself off. Unfortunately these two doctors along with many others who have suggested herd immunity have gone unnoticed by the media because it doesn’t fit their narrative.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/o...istancing.html
The “media” is, collectively, a for-profit entertainment industry. The product they sell is commonly wrapped as being of service to the public, but the driver is profit (except for PBS / NPR). The “media’s” “narrative” is to feature stories that command the public’s attention, so that advertising revenue may be derived from the display. Any ideological agenda attached is ancillary to the profit motive - despite what your ideology preaches.

As for “herd immunity” and your “experts”:

Quote:

Uncertainty with COVID-19 herd immunity

Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of the population becomes immune to a disease or virus, stopping its spread because there are so few people who can contract it.

It is typically attained through vaccination, not widespread infection. For example, herd immunity for the measles is achieved when 19 out of 20 people receive the vaccination.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...us/5156368002/

... Fact check: Herd immunity would not fully stop the spread of coronavirus

Claim: Herd immunity, not social distancing, would stop COVID-19
...

Knut Wittkowski, a former biostatistician at the Rockefeller University, claimed social distancing is not the right way to handle the pandemic.

Wittkowski was quoted in a WND article – which cited a YouTube video and was shared extensively on Facebook – as saying that achieving herd immunity is the only thing that stops respiratory diseases like COVID-19. He advocated for schools to be opened because within weeks, enough people will have been exposed to the virus and achieved immunity to stop the spread of the virus.

The Rockefeller University released a statement on April 13 addressing Wittkowski’s claim and stating his views “do not represent the views of the Rockefeller University, its leadership, or its faculty.”
More, from MIT Technology Review:

Quote:

Why simply waiting for herd immunity to stop covid-19 isn’t an option
Waiting for enough people to catch the coronavirus could take a very long time.


by Gideon Lichfield archive page
April 14, 2020

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...snt-an-option/
It is further unknown whether immunity, herd or otherwise, can apply to this virus - too soon to tell.

I realize I am once again injecting science into a conversation with a bible literalist - who claims science and the bible are compatible. But I do so for the interest other readers may have.
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Old 04-21-2020, 09:02 AM
 
Location: Kahala
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I suspect in early May, which isn't that far away - we will start opening the island back up for residents. Most of us can use a haircut by the way.

The quarantine on arrivals I believe will last as long until we get data from California and Nevada opening up. If Nevada and California open up without significant issues - Hawaii will soon follow. Given our tourism industry is so dependent on West Coast visitors, might as well follow the lead of those states. I see June or July incoming quarantine for visitors ends with tourism at 40-50% of previous levels at best.
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Old 04-21-2020, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Portland OR / Honolulu HI
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I agree with most of this. A slow, cautious open for residents only while still retaining some social distancing measures and still keeping the quarantine in place on new arrivals. Followed by a slow re-opening of new arrivals after seeing what happens as the west coast opens up.

Personally, even when I start to consider removing the 14 quarantine for new arrivals, I’d start slow. Probably keep the quarantine on international arrivals until I see that domestic arrivals are successful. Maybe even limit domestarrivals to one island as a test.

And yes, herd immunity is misleading and not easily attained. Viruses Change and mutate. After all these years we still don’t have “herd immunity” from the flu even. We only get some protection through annual vaccinations.
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Old 04-21-2020, 10:03 AM
 
Location: On the water.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaikikiBoy View Post
I agree with most of this. A slow, cautious open for residents only while still retaining some social distancing measures and still keeping the quarantine in place on new arrivals. Followed by a slow re-opening of new arrivals after seeing what happens as the west coast opens up.

Personally, even when I start to consider removing the 14 quarantine for new arrivals, I’d start slow. Probably keep the quarantine on international arrivals until I see that domestic arrivals are successful. Maybe even limit domestarrivals to one island as a test.

And yes, herd immunity is misleading and not easily attained. Viruses Change and mutate. After all these years we still don’t have “herd immunity” from the flu even. We only get some protection through annual vaccinations.
And we certainly haven’t achieved herd immunity from stupidity in the past 10,000 years since we left cave-dwelling. Wouldn’t an annual vaccine against stupidity be interesting ...
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Old 04-21-2020, 10:12 AM
 
Location: Kahala
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaikikiBoy View Post
Probably keep the quarantine on international arrivals until I see that domestic arrivals are successful.
I'm certain the State of Hawaii can't single out international arrivals for quarantine - nor would the optics look for very good for something like that. And given the US has more cases than any other country - one could argue international arrivals are safer than domestic arrivals.
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Old 04-21-2020, 10:31 AM
 
Location: Portland OR / Honolulu HI
937 posts, read 1,071,818 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whtviper1 View Post
I'm certain the State of Hawaii can't single out international arrivals for quarantine - nor would the optics look for very good for something like that. And given the US has more cases than any other country - one could argue international arrivals are safer than domestic arrivals.
Good points.

I was trying to find a way to slowly restart visitor arrivals rather then open it up all at once. Even if it reopens with just half the normal numbers, I think that is still going to be around 100,000 tourists in Honolulu on any given day. It is extremely difficult to manage social distancing with so many tourists all looking for food from restaurants at the same time and wandering through hotels & elevators & malls, etc.

If there were a way to be able to allow visitor returns in some sort of slow manner I think it would be best.
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Old 04-21-2020, 10:58 AM
 
Location: Kahala
11,887 posts, read 16,041,081 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaikikiBoy View Post

If there were a way to be able to allow visitor returns in some sort of slow manner I think it would be best.
It'll be slow - there won't be plane loads of people coming to Hawaii anytime soon - it'll start with a trickle.

Regardless, our visitor numbers (10 million at the peak over 4 major islands - mostly Oahu) are pale in comparison to places like San Francisco (25 million) and Las Vegas (45 million). I see no scenario we open before they do - likely at least a couple of weeks after they do - and we get the benefit to see how this plays in those locations.

Heck - we get to see how it works out in Georgia soon - will be interesting to see what happens in Atlanta.
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